Independent Thinking Trump Year One – China's economic rivalry with the US is here to stay
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Dec 15, 2025 Join experts David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, Marion Messmer, Director of the International Security Programme, and Yu Jie, a specialist on China, as they dissect the geopolitical landscape post-Trump's first year. They explore surprising shifts in US foreign policy, the rebirth of the Monroe Doctrine, and the complexities of US-China relations. The panel debates the likelihood of conflict, examines China's strategic priorities, and assesses the implications for smaller nations caught between superpowers. Expect insights into global trade tensions and future geopolitical tests!
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Trade Was Diverted, Not Destroyed
- Global trade has been diverted, not destroyed, despite tariff shocks.
- Many partners accepted new realities, avoiding a race-to-the-bottom retaliation cycle.
Monroe Doctrine Repackaged
- The administration explicitly articulated a new Monroe Doctrine prioritising the Western Hemisphere.
- That signals a tilt toward an international order based on regional spheres of influence.
Tariffs Triggered Trade Rerouting
- Tariffs proved less damaging because levels were lower and retaliation minimal.
- Trade flows rerouted to Southeast Asia, Africa and South America, boosting some exporters to the US.