Coinbase Institutional Market Call

Description:This week, we dissect a shifting market landscape: perp funding rates remain moderate, but Ethereum's basis is notably trading above Bitcoin's, fueled by recent momentum and significant ETH ETF inflows, which starkly contrast with current BTC ETF outflows.Among the big movers, we're seeing gains in MKR, UNI, and CRO, while the COIN50 Index has dipped 4% over the past week. We also delve into the technical picture for major assets, commenting on key support and resistance levels. Encouragingly, corporate BTC flows remain strong.On the macro and regulatory front in the US, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) has recently passed the House. We are also closely watching a significant week for jobs data; April's JOLTS report is in, and upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and initial jobless claims will provide a comprehensive overview of the current labor market.Industry news is headlined by the Ethereum Foundation's major overhaul of its R&D division. Now in "wartime mode," the focus is sharply on scaling L1s and L2s, alongside significant improvements to user and developer experience (UX/DX). Meanwhile, corporate crypto accumulation continues unabated.Our onchain deep dive explores the progress of Ethereum's Pectra Upgrade, including developments around EIP-7251 consolidations and a noticeably growing staking queue. For Solana, Anza has announced the Alpenglow consensus protocol. In the DeFi space, we're seeing continued growth from Hyperliquid in the perpetuals market and a significant increase in Gearbox lending TVL. We'll also discuss Loudio's innovative "Initial Attention Offering" model, and note that Coinbase Wallet's Mini Apps are now available in limited beta.Topics Covered:Market Dynamics:Perp funding rates & ETH/BTC basis.ETH ETF inflows vs. BTC ETF outflows.Big Movers (MKR, UNI, CRO) & COIN50 Index performance.Commentary on Technicals (including key support/resistance).Corporate BTC flows.Macro & Regulatory:"One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) House passage.Key Jobs Data: JOLTS, upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls & initial jobless claims.Industry & Corporate News:Ethereum Foundation's R&D "wartime mode" (L1/L2 scaling, UX/DX focus).Ongoing corporate crypto accumulation.Onchain Insights:Ethereum: Pectra Upgrade progress (EIP-7251, staking queue).Solana: Anza's Alpenglow consensus protocol announcement.DeFi Trends: Hyperliquid perp market growth, Gearbox lending TVL increase.New Models: Loudio's "Initial Attention Offering."Coinbase News:Wallet Tech: Coinbase Wallet Mini Apps in limited betaCoinbase ResearchHost:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers:David Duong, Head of Institutional ResearchBen Rodriguez, Senior Protocol SpecialistGregory Sutton, Senior CES Sales Trader

This week, we're diving into Bitcoin's surge to new all-time highs, with funding rates climbing, open interest nearing $100 billion, and BTC dominance holding strong at 61%. We'll explore expectations and market positioning as the major BTC Vegas conference kicks off and examine the bullish signal of the 200-day moving average golden cross. We also discuss how large Bitcoin holders are strategically managing their positions through lending and options.In markets, we compare Solana and Ethereum, including Standard Chartered's $500 SOL initiation and price target. We look at the impending arrival of SOL ETFs & ETPs and the potential for positive flows and arbitrage opportunities. For Ethereum, validators are signaling another gas limit boost, and we note the impressive TVL increase to $119.5 billion over the past month. Also in markets, we cover the COIN50 Index rebalances and its recent strong performance.On the macro front, we analyze Bitcoin demand amidst elevated bond yields, particularly focusing on Japan's significant holdings of US Treasuries. We'll provide an overview of the much-discussed "big beautiful bill" and its potential economic implications. Plus, a look at Bitcoin versus gold through the lens of their unique supply and demand characteristics. Keep an eye on key economic indicators this week with the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PCE data out on Friday.We also examine the trend of corporates continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, their strategies, and spotlight The Blockchain Group and Strategy. Finally, in Coinbase news, the platform has expanded its altcoin support in Germany, adding RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, and L3.Topics Covered:Bitcoin Bonanza: All-time highs, funding rates, open interest, 61% market dominance, BTC Vegas conference expectations, 200 DMA golden cross, large holder strategies (lending/overwriting).OnChain: SOL vs. ETH, Standard Chartered SOL $500 target, impending SOL ETFs/ETPs, Ethereum gas limit boost, TVL increase to $119.5B.Market Dynamics: COIN50 Index rebalances and strong performance.Macroeconomic Outlook: BTC demand vs. bond yields (Japan & UST focus), overview of the "big beautiful bill," BTC vs. Gold supply/demand.Key Economic Indicators: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), PCE Data (Friday).Corporate Crypto Adoption: Continued corporate BTC buying, strategy insights, The Blockchain Group & Strategy.Coinbase News:Expansion of altcoin support in Germany (RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, L3)

This week, we delve into the significant progress on US/China tariffs announced over the weekend, including reciprocal rate cuts effective May 14th, and discuss how crypto assets reacted during off-market hours, leading to notable moves. In the Bitcoin segment, we analyze ETF flows, question if BTC dominance has peaked, and provide an overview of the OP_RETURN proposal aiming to remove the 83-byte limit. We also touch upon the flows observed on our desk during recent market moves.For Ethereum, we explore its recent price performance and give details on the upcoming Pectra upgrade. Market-wise, we cover the recent momentum in meme coins and other assets that have lagged this year, alongside updates on key technicals and resistance levels.On the macro front, we review the April CPI data, note the absence of tariff impacts in current figures, and discuss a Republican budget bill heading for a House vote on Tuesday, which could introduce more economic stimulus later this year. We provide a crucial update on the stablecoin bill, including the Senate's rejection of the "Genius Act" and the upcoming House vote on the "Stable Act." Despite some positive developments, we consider why the market might be underpricing these and discuss revised timelines potentially pushing into 2025. We also cover recent M&A activity in the stablecoin space, such as the Mountain Protocol acquisition.Further topics include the rise of new companies building Bitcoin treasury solutions for corporates, insights from a strategy conference in Orlando, and Sol Strategies tokenizing part of their capital structure with Superstate. We also highlight Pump.fun's initiative to give back to creators.Finally, we cover major Coinbase news: the agreement to acquire Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange; the launch of 24/7 BTC & ETH futures in the US; a new Coinbase advertisement; sponsorship of the WNBA's Golden State Valkyries; and the release of over 10,000 pages of documents from our ongoing FOIA campaigns.Topics Covered:Tariffs & Global Trade: US/China tariff reductions, crypto as a weekend proxy, market liquidations.Bitcoin Deep Dive: ETF flows, BTC dominance, OP_RETURN proposal, desk flow analysis.Ethereum Insights: Price performance analysis, Pectra upgrade details.Market Dynamics: Momentum in meme coins & laggards, technical analysis, resistance levels.Macroeconomic Outlook: April CPI review, potential impact of new Republican stimulus bill.Stablecoin Legislation: Senate's "Genius Act" rejection, House "Stable Act" vote, revised timelines, market pricing.Stablecoin Sector News: M&A activity, Mountain Protocol acquisition.Corporate Crypto Adoption: Growth in BTC treasury solutions, insights from strategy conference.Ecosystem Innovations: Sol Strategies tokenization, Pump.fun creator revenue sharing.Coinbase News:Coinbase enters agreement to acquire Deribit.Launch of 24/7 BTC & ETH futures in the US.New Coinbase advertisement released.Sponsorship of WNBA's Golden State Valkyries.Release of 10,000+ pages of documents from FOIA campaigns.

This week, we’re joined by special guest Tarun Gupta, CEO and co-founder of Coinshift, to discuss stablecoin adoption globally and his long-term vision for decentralized finance.In the market update, we highlight large inflows into BTC, CME flows up over 100% month-over-month, and a strong front-month basis at 11%. We also break down what's next for BTC and key support levels.On the macro front, we recap last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls, discuss equity market valuations, preview this week’s FOMC decision, and consider what to expect from the Milken Conference and key crypto earnings. In the news section, we cover Arizona’s rejection of a proposal to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—and Schwab and Morgan Stanley's plans to launch crypto trading. We also cover the revival of virtual asset platforms with the launch of Genesis, and continued explosive growth in real-world assets (RWAs), including Telegram’s $500M tokenized bond fund and BlackRock’s BUIDL reaching $2.8B in TVL, up from $665M in March. BlackRock has also filed to tokenize a $150B Treasury trust fund on Ethereum.Onchain, we discuss Apple’s relaxation of crypto app rules—allowing Bitcoin and crypto payments, NFTs, and reduced App Store fees—and Solana’s patch of a zero-day vulnerability in its ElGamal Proof program. We close with key upcoming catalysts: the FOMC decision on May 7, and Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade also expected on May 7.Topics Covered:Special Guests:Tarun Gupta on stablecoin adoptionMarket Update: BTC inflows, CME flows +100% MoM, front-month basis at 11%, key support levelsMacro Overview: Non-Farm Payrolls, equity market valuations, FOMC expectations, Milken Conference, crypto earningsNews & Policy: Bitcoin reserve proposal rejections, Schwab & Morgan Stanley crypto plans, virtuals revival, Telegram & BlackRock RWA expansionOnchain Insights: Apple relaxes app rules, Solana patches zero-day vulnerabilityCatalysts Ahead: FOMC Meeting (May 7), Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (May 7), multiple crypto company earnings (May 8)Host:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers:David Duong, Head of Institutional ResearchBrock Miller, Senior Staff Software EngineerJoshua Pak, Senior CES Sales TraderCoinbase News:MANTLE-USD, WLD-USD available on Coinbase Exchange and Advanced Trade

 This week, we dive into the latest EY Digital Assets Survey and what it reveals about institutional sentiment: 85% of respondents increased their crypto allocations in 2024—and nearly the same expect to do so again in 2025. We unpack which assets are in focus, the critical role of regulation, and how institutions are beginning to engage with DeFi.On the market side, ETF inflows remain strong, especially into IBIT, with ETH reversing its outflows from the previous week. We analyze current holder trends and potential upside scenarios. We also look at Bitcoin's increasing correlation with gold and how it's behaving around key geopolitical headlines.In macro, we touch on updates from the White House and key economic prints—JOLTs, ADP, GDP, and the BoJ rate decision—all leading up to Friday’s NFPs.In the news section, we discuss BTC treasury trends at 21 Capital and explore Solana-based DeFi treasury entities like Upexi and DeFi Development Corp.Onchain, we review the implications of EIP-9698, early signs of renewed strength in ETH signals, and the Loopscale exploit. We also note Monero-BTC swap developments and DeFi TVL climbing back above $100B.We close with key upcoming catalysts to watch: Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, the May 7th FOMC decision, and Ethereum’s long-awaited Pectra upgrade.Topics Covered:Institutional Trends: EY Survey highlights, asset preferences, regulatory priorities, and DeFi participationMarket Update: IBIT-led ETF inflows, ETH reversal, BTC holders & gold correlationMacro Overview: White House, JOLTs, ADP, GDP, BoJ, and NFPs outlookNews & Earnings: BTC treasury strategy at 21 Capital, Solana-based DeFi treasuriesOnchain Insights: EIP-9698, ETH revival signals, Loopscale exploit, and TVL growthCatalysts Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls (May 3), FOMC & Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (May 7)Host: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers: David Duong, Head of Institutional Research Brock Miller, Senior Staff Software EngineerJoshua Pak, Senior CES Sales TraderCoinbase NewsCBAM BTC Yield Fund: A conservative Bitcoin strategy targeting 4–8% net annual returns over a market cycle, with subscriptions and redemptions in BTC.UK Web3 Accelerator Launch: Coinbase joins Fabric Ventures, Animoca Brands, and Founders Factory to launch a new UK-focused Web3 accelerator.Coinbase x PayPal Partnership: Coinbase expands its PayPal partnership to support seamless 1:1 PYUSD-USD conversions and explore new onchain use cases.Coinbase International Exchange Q1 Recap: Highlights from Q1 performance and key growth initiatives planned for Q2 2025.LinksEY-Parthenon Digital Assets Strategy Report

 This week, we explore BTC’s continued strength—driven by ETF inflows, its digital-gold narrative and favorable option skew—while ETH sees institutional outflows. We highlight strong performances from AI-linked tokens like Render, FET, and TAO, and discuss how crypto has outpaced equities since Liberation Day.In macro, we unpack the potential for BTC decoupling, rising political influence on monetary policy, the IMF’s global growth downgrade, and implications of a weaker U.S. dollar. We also assess the impact of upcoming key data releases like PCE and JOLTs, and what they signal for risk assets.Our research team dives into what defines a crypto bear market, how today’s market compares to prior cycles, and what VC funding trends reveal beyond just price action.In industry news, we cover Circle’s launch of a new B2B payments and remittance network, its reported application for a banking charter, and comments from Charles Schwab’s CEO on the potential rollout of spot crypto trading in the next 12 months.Onchain, we provide updates on Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade, Vitalik’s proposal to shift Ethereum’s EVM to RISC-V, and the growing momentum in tokenized treasuries, now topping $6B in onchain TVL.Finally, we share the latest from Coinbase, including the launch of XRP futures through Coinbase Derivatives, our new brand campaign, and upcoming institutional events covering Ethereum's roadmap and crypto-AI convergence.Topics Covered:Market Trends: BTC ETF inflows, ETH outflows, AI token strength, and BTC vs SPX performance since Liberation DayMacro Outlook: BTC decoupling potential, politicized monetary policy, IMF forecast cuts, USD weakness, PCE & JOLTs dataResearch Insights: Are we in a crypto bear market? VC activity and long-term indicatorsIndustry News: Circle’s B2B launch, banking ambitions, and Schwab’s spot crypto outlookOnchain Developments: Ethereum Pectra upgrade, RISC-V proposal, and tokenized treasuries growthCoinbase Updates: XRP futures live, new Coinbase ad, Bloomberg coverage, and two upcoming webinars on Pectra and AIHost: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers: David Duong, Head of Institutional Research Brock Miller, Senior Staff Software Engineer Greg Sutton, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Coinbase's Latest 'Advert - System > updated'Coinbase Derivatives, LLC now offers CFTC-regulated futures for $XRPRegister for our webinar on 24th April to discuss the convergence of crypto and AI and what growth trends to watch in 2025Register for our upcoming webinar on April 29th with Coinbase Institutional's team on Pectra UpgradeLauren Abendschein, our Global Head of Sales, joined BloombergTV to discuss stablecoins, emerging regulatory clarity, and the significant opportunities for institutions in the APAC region

This week we have Sarah Williamson (Coinbase Institutional’s Head of Financing Trading) joining us as a special guest. While optimism remains in short supply due to tariffs, we are seeing improving market structure around bitcoin and other key crypto assets. In this episode, we analyze recent derivatives performance, including sideways perp funding rates and emerging opportunities in options skew as well as the collapse in Mantra’s OM tokens. Meanwhile, the macro environment demands caution amid the current liquidity crunch, even though we see some opportunistic buying from crypto natives at the margin while onchain data has revealed some steady bitcoin accumulation by long-term holders since the end of February. We evaluate the proximity of a recession through the lens of mortgage loan demand, DeFi borrowing rates, and volatility-management strategies. Don’t miss this episode as we look at how crypto and macro markets are shaping up for the month.Host: David Duong, CFA - Head of ResearchSpeakers:Georg Toropov, Senior CES Sales TraderSarah Williamson, Head of Financing TradingLinks:Monthly: How Do You Define a Crypto Bear Market?The Ultimate Guide to Ethereum’s Pectra UpgradeMarket Technicals: March 2025

This week, we dive into the evolving crypto and macro landscape—starting with the latest market signals: BTC dominance climbs to 69%, perp funding turns negative, and BTC options remain cautiously bearish. We also break down technical levels to watch, institutional flow trends, and how global equity valuations are influencing crypto sentiment.On the macro front, rising US-China uncertainty continue to take center stage. We assess potential ripple effects from escalating tariffs, a weakening yuan, and the PBOC’s monetary posture.In industry news, Ripple makes a $1.2B acquisition, and Apollo backs Plume’s push into tokenized assets. Onchain, stablecoin growth pauses while infrastructure protocols reclaim top revenue spots.We also share Coinbase updates: the May 9 launch of 24/7 derivatives trading, upcoming XRP futures, and progress in tokenized fund access through WisdomTree Connect.Topics Covered:Market Metrics: BTC dominance at 69%, flat-to-negative perp funding, bearish skew in options, and COIN50 reboundMacro Trends: China tariff escalation, yuan devaluation risk, Fed expectations and SPY valuation divergencesIndustry News: SEC stablecoin guidance, Ripple’s $1.2B deal, Apollo’s investment in Plume, and fundraises from Blackbird & CapOnchain Insights: Stablecoin growth stalls, Aave vote for Pendle PT as collateral, memecoin activity falls relative to overall DEX volumesCoinbase Updates: Derivatives launch (May 9), XRP Futures (Apr 21), WisdomTree tokenized funds, ML & Blockchain SummitUpcoming Catalysts: CPI + Jobless Claims (Thurs), FTX distributions (May 30), Pectra upgrade (end of April)Host:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services Speakers:David Han, Research AnalystGeorg Toropov, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Coinbase Derivatives is targeting May 9th to enable 24x7 trading for Bitcoin and Ether futures.XRP Futures likely to go live on April 21stWisdomTree Connect: 13 Tokenized Funds Now Available Across Base, Ethereum, Arbitrum, Avalanche and OptimismMachine Learning and Blockchain research summit on Thursday 8th MayCoinbase Blog - Unlocking Government Efficiency with Crypto and Blockchain

This week, we explore Fasanara’s approach to trading—how they identify inefficiencies, their evolving strategies, and what’s next for their platform. We also break down the latest market trends, including perp funding rates, ETF flows, and COIN50 index performance.Beyond markets, we dive into macro updates, covering Tariff Liberation Day on April 2nd, weaker JOLTs numbers, and expectations for non-farm payrolls. In  tokenization developments, we discuss Visa’s Tokenized Asset Platform, Mastercard’s blockchain-powered payment network, and the evolving stablecoin landscape.In the onchain section, we track TVL changes across major protocols, Ethereum’s DEX dominance over Solana, and Walrus Storage’s mainnet launch. Finally, we highlight key upcoming catalysts, including the FTX claims process starting on May 30th and broader market implications.Topics Covered:Fasanara’s Trading Strategies: How they identify market inefficiencies and their future plans.Market Update: Perp funding rates, ETF flows, and technical levels for BTC, ETH & key indices.Macro Outlook: Liberation Day impact, JOLTs data, and Non-Farm Payrolls expectations.Regulatory & Industry News: Visa’s tokenization plans, Mastercard’s blockchain network, and stablecoin legislation.Onchain Insights: TVL shifts, Ethereum vs. Solana DEX volumes, and Walrus Storage live on mainnet.Upcoming Catalysts: Tariff Liberation Day (April 2nd) and FTX large claims process (May 30th).Host: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpecial Guest:Alessandro Balata, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Fasanara DigitalSpeakers:David Duong, Head of Institutional ResearchDavid Han, Research AnalystGeorg Toropov, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Coinbase Derivatives, LLC now offers CFTC-regulated futures for Natural Gas and Cardano $ADACoinbase open-sources our multiparty computation (MPC) cryptography library, setting a new industry benchmark for cryptographic transparency.Greg Tusar, Coinbase Head of Institutional Product joins Capital Decanted discuss whether a pro-crypto US administration will spur increased institutional adoption in the world’s largest market.Max Branzburg, head of consumer talks about how crypto has evolved on the Tear Sheet PodcastCoinbase Institutional Research

This week, the team is joined by Brock Miller, Senior Staff Software Engineer, to discuss Coinbase Verified Pools—why we launched it, how it works, and what’s next. We also break down the latest market trends, including perp funding rates, ETF flows, and the SOL futures ETFs.Beyond markets, we dive into macro updates, covering the April 2nd tariff announcement, the Fed's QT adjustment, and key earnings to watch in April. Onchain, we look at the continued growth in stablecoins, BUIDL’s expansion to Solana, and new activity on Pumpswap and Polymarket. Finally, we highlight major Coinbase updates, including our Ethereum Validator Performance Report and a new institutional investor survey showing increasing crypto adoption. Check the show notes for all links.Topics Covered:Coinbase Verified Pools: Why we launched it and what’s next.Market Update: Perp funding, ETF flows, and technical levels for BTC, ETH & SPX.Macro Outlook: April 2nd tariff news, Fed QT slowdown, and key earnings ahead.Onchain Insights: Stablecoin growth, BUIDL expansion, and Solana’s DeFi shifts.Coinbase Updates: Ethereum validator report & institutional investor trends.Upcoming Catalysts: Pectra Hooli upgrade (March 26) and April 2nd macro events.Host:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesGuest:Brock Miller, Senior Staff Software EngineerSpeakers:David Duong, Head of Institutional ResearchDavid Han, Research AnalystGreg Sutton, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Ethereum Validator Performance ReportCoinbase Institutional Investor SurveyVerified Pools Announcement