Brussels Sprouts

Last week, the world learned the shocking news that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious head of Wagner private military company, died in a plane crash north of Moscow. Prigozhin’s demise came exactly two months after he launched a mutiny against Russian military leadership, which may be called the most significant and direct threat to Vladimir Putin’s regime since he came to power two decades ago. Now, it is far from certain whether Wagner can replicate its previous success without Prigozhin at the helm, and if not, whether other groups can effectively fill the vacuum. To discuss the post-Prigozhin future, Kim Marten and Vanda Felbab-Brown join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Kimberly Marten is a professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University. Her current research focuses on Russian foreign and security policies, NATO enlargement, and the global politics of climate change. Vanda Felbab-Brown is a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is an expert on international and internal conflicts and nontraditional security threats, including insurgency, organized crime, urban violence, and illicit economies

Last month, Germany adopted its first ever strategy on China. Looking forward, Berlin’s implementation of this strategy will impact Germany, as well as the broader cohesion of the transatlantic partnership, as issues surrounding relations with China continue to grow in importance in both Europe and the United States. To discuss key takeaways from the strategy as well as its potential implications, Janka Oertel and Andrew Small join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts.    Janka Oertel is director of the Asia program and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of Ende der China-Illusion.     Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program. He is the author of No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West. 

Over the past month, Belarus has been increasingly in the spotlight, with the announcement of the Wagner Group’s relocation to the country following its aborted mutiny in Russia at the end of June. While it remains to be seen exactly what role Wagner forces will have in Belarus going forward, their presence is likely to have significant implications for the future of Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko’s regime and its relations with the Kremlin. This most recent development comes within a broader context of closer ties between Belarus and Russia over the past couple of years, including a renewed push for integration under the Union State framework and notable moves such as the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. At the same time, the legacy of mass protests in Belarus following stolen elections in 2020 continues to exert a powerful influence, as significant questions remain about the stability of the Lukashenko regime despite its increasingly repressive measures. To discuss all of this and more, Brian Whitmore and Ryhor Astapenia join the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Brian Whitmore is a nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. as well as a Russia and Eurasia specialist and assistant professor of practice at The University of Texas at Arlington. He is also the author of The Power Vertical Blog and host of The Power Vertical Podcast, both of which focus on Russian affairs. Ryhor Astapenia is an academy associate and director of the Belarus Initiative in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He focuses on Belarusian domestic politics and foreign policy.

We hope you enjoy this bonus episode of Brussels Sprouts, a collaboration between Foreign Policy and the Center for a New American Security.  It’s been a mixed summer for Ukraine. Kyiv’s counteroffensive is progressing slowly, and the country was stymied in its bid to join NATO. But Russia has suffered military setbacks, and the West continues to offer Ukraine important security guarantees. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal to discuss the latest in the war and assess where things might head next. Kendall-Taylor is the director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for New American Security.

On July 11 and 12, NATO held its widely anticipated Vilnius Summit to discuss current functions of the alliance as well as the future of Ukrainian membership. Despite hope that NATO may provide a clearer path for Ukraine’s accession into NATO, the alliance reiterated its commitment to Ukrainian membership once allies agree and conditions are met, leaving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy upset. Despite a high emphasis on Russia's war in Ukraine, the Aaliance also discussed Chinese influence, defense expenditures, and cybersecurity. To discuss the key takeaways of the Vilnius Summit, Ambassador Kurt Volker and Ambassador Douglas Lute join Carisa Nietsche and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Ambassador Douglas Lute is the former U.S. Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Council. He currently serves as the chair of International and Defense Practices at BGR Group. Ambassador Kurt Volker is the former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017-2019. He is also the former U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009. He currently serves as co-chair of the BGR’s advisory board.

In collaboration Foreign Policy Magazine, today we bring you a special bonus episode featuring Paul Scharre, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies here at CNAS. He joins host Ravi Agrawal and the Foreign Policy Live podcast to discuss his latest book Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, his Foreign Policy cover article, and the global state of AI. We return with a new episode this Friday. 

As NATO prepares for its annual summit in Vilnius this July, one of the biggest topics on the agenda will be how to guarantee long-term security for Ukraine. Given that membership in the alliance is unrealistic before the end of active fighting with Russia, the West will need to find an alternative arrangement that allows Ukraine to remain secure in the interim. While there is no consensus yet on what such an arrangement might look like, numerous proposals have emerged in recent months—including from both of our guests on today’s episode. To discuss their ideas for what it will take to guarantee Ukraine’s security as well as the future of Western support for Kyiv more broadly, Liana Fix and Eric Ciaramella join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Eric Ciaramella is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his work focuses on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining Carnegie, Ciaramella served for twelve years in the U.S. government as an intelligence analyst and policy official.

Last weekend, the outbreak of an insurgency against the Russian state by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group shocked observers across the world. After accusing the Russian Ministry of Defense of having attacked Wagner troops on Friday, Prigozhin vowed to retaliate and proceeded to lead his forces into Russia, seizing the city of Rostov-on-Don and coming within 200 kilometers of Moscow. While the insurgency came to an abrupt end on Saturday with the announcement of a deal brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Luksahenko, its implications for the future political stability of Russia are likely to be profound. After facing the greatest threat to his rule since taking office 23 years ago, how secure is Vladimir Putin’s hold on power, and how is he likely to respond going forward? To discuss all of this and more, we’re happy to have Angela Stent with us on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Angela Stent is a professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University as well as a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Over the weekend, infighting between Prigozhin and Shoigu led to seismic shifts in Russian domestic stability. This episode was recorded on Friday, June 23, prior to start of the Wagner Group’s insurgency within Russia. The implications of Wagner’s armed rebellion remain uncertain. This Brussels Sprouts, released in conjunction with the launch of the CNAS Russia Stability Tracker, focuses on the broader context of Russian domestic stability. As the war in Ukraine continues and elite fissures begin to emerge, Catherine Belton and Arkady Ostrovksy join the conversation to discuss Putin’s hold on power, and how we might expect Russian domestic dynamics to evolve moving forward. Catherine Belton reports on Russia for The Washington Post. She is the author of Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West. Arkady Ostrovsky is the Russia and eastern Europe editor for The Economist. He is the author of The Invention of Russia: The Journey from Gorbachev’s Freedom to Putin’s War and The Invention of Russia: The Rise of Putin and the Age of Fake News.

Three weeks ago, Ukraine began its widely anticipated counteroffensive. Observers are watching for key developments on the battlefield as Ukraine attempts to regain territory, which is unfolding slower than hoped. Mike Kofman and Konrad Muzyka join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how the conflict will likely evolve and what it means for Western resolve on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy. Konrad Muzyka is the Director of Rochan Consulting and an independent defense analyst. He provides consultancy and advisory services on the Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces.