Brussels Sprouts

Heading into the January 2024 Finnish presidential elections, the spotlight remains on foreign policy, an area where the Finnish head of state wields considerable influence. At the forefront of Finland’s foreign policy, however, is Russia and the nature of Helsinki’s future relationship with its neighbor. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Helsinki broke from its decades-long policy of formal military non-alignment by applying for and receiving membership in NATO. Outgoing president Niinistö had a crucial role in executing this monumental shift, helping set Finland down a new path, but considerable questions and issues remain. On this bonus episode of Brussels Sprouts, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend as they moderate a debate between Finland’s leading presidential candidates, Dr. Mika Aaltola, Pekka Haavisto, and Alex Stubb, on the future of Finnish foreign policy. Dr. Mika Aaltola is running as an independent candidate in the 2024 Finnish elections. He is currently on a leave of absence from his position as the Director of the Finish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). Pekka Haavisto is a member of the Green Party and the Finnish Parliament. He previously served as the Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2023. Alex Stubb is running as the National Coalition candidate in the 2024 Finnish Presidential Race. Prior to this, he served as Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Foreign Minister, and Trade and Europe Minister of Finland. Additionally, he was a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008.

On September 19, Azerbaijani forces began attacking Nagorno Karabakh, the long-disputed Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan. Within 24 hours, Azerbaijan had established full control over the territory, triggering a mass exodus of Karabakh Armenians from their homeland amid fears of ethnic cleansing at the hands of the Azerbaijani military. This latest violence in the long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh raises numerous questions. How will Russia’s role and influence in the region shift amidst warming tides between Armenia and the West, and what does Baku’s relationship with Turkey mean for the conflict’s trajectory? To discuss recent developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Thomas de Waal and Ambassador Philip Reeker join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this Week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Ambassador Philip Reeker is a partner and the lead of the Europe and Eurasia Practice at the Albright Stonebridge Group. He has more than 30 years of diplomatic experience, including previous roles as Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, and as the Secretary of State’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations. Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. He is the author of numerous publications about the region, including his authoritative book on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War

This past Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to the Russian Far East for a summit with Vladimir Putin. After more than four hours of talks, Kim vowed to provide “full and unconditional support” to Russia, a clear indication of just how closely aligned Russian and North Korean interests have become. This deepening partnership between Russia and North Korea is part of a larger trend that has seen the emergence of a broad axis of authoritarian countries bound through opposition to the United States and its allies. To assess the significance of Russia’s increasingly close relationships with Pyongyang and Tehran for U.S. national security, Hanna Notte and Markus Garlauskas join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts. Hanna Notte is the Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies as well as a Senior Associate in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Markus Garlauskas is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He previously served in the US government for nearly twenty years, including as National Intelligence Officer for North Korea.

Over the past several months, the world’s attention has been focused on the ongoing counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. Many of Ukraine’s supporters had high hopes for this operation, with the United States and its European allies having provided unprecedented levels of military aid to Kyiv in preparation. Yet as the summer concludes without evidence of decisive territorial gains by Ukraine, perspectives on the conflict’s trajectory are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Nonetheless, some observers have pushed back against this narrative, noting Ukraine’s steady progress in the face of formidable challenges, and calling supporters to not give up hope. In this episode of Brussels Sprouts, hosts Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend are joined by Mike Kofman and Lieutenant General Mark Hertling to discuss the state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues. Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling is a former United States Army officer who previously served as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2011-2012.

Last week, the world learned the shocking news that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious head of Wagner private military company, died in a plane crash north of Moscow. Prigozhin’s demise came exactly two months after he launched a mutiny against Russian military leadership, which may be called the most significant and direct threat to Vladimir Putin’s regime since he came to power two decades ago. Now, it is far from certain whether Wagner can replicate its previous success without Prigozhin at the helm, and if not, whether other groups can effectively fill the vacuum. To discuss the post-Prigozhin future, Kim Marten and Vanda Felbab-Brown join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Kimberly Marten is a professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University. Her current research focuses on Russian foreign and security policies, NATO enlargement, and the global politics of climate change. Vanda Felbab-Brown is a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is an expert on international and internal conflicts and nontraditional security threats, including insurgency, organized crime, urban violence, and illicit economies

Last month, Germany adopted its first ever strategy on China. Looking forward, Berlin’s implementation of this strategy will impact Germany, as well as the broader cohesion of the transatlantic partnership, as issues surrounding relations with China continue to grow in importance in both Europe and the United States. To discuss key takeaways from the strategy as well as its potential implications, Janka Oertel and Andrew Small join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts.    Janka Oertel is director of the Asia program and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of Ende der China-Illusion.     Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program. He is the author of No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West. 

Over the past month, Belarus has been increasingly in the spotlight, with the announcement of the Wagner Group’s relocation to the country following its aborted mutiny in Russia at the end of June. While it remains to be seen exactly what role Wagner forces will have in Belarus going forward, their presence is likely to have significant implications for the future of Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko’s regime and its relations with the Kremlin. This most recent development comes within a broader context of closer ties between Belarus and Russia over the past couple of years, including a renewed push for integration under the Union State framework and notable moves such as the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. At the same time, the legacy of mass protests in Belarus following stolen elections in 2020 continues to exert a powerful influence, as significant questions remain about the stability of the Lukashenko regime despite its increasingly repressive measures. To discuss all of this and more, Brian Whitmore and Ryhor Astapenia join the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Brian Whitmore is a nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. as well as a Russia and Eurasia specialist and assistant professor of practice at The University of Texas at Arlington. He is also the author of The Power Vertical Blog and host of The Power Vertical Podcast, both of which focus on Russian affairs. Ryhor Astapenia is an academy associate and director of the Belarus Initiative in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He focuses on Belarusian domestic politics and foreign policy.

We hope you enjoy this bonus episode of Brussels Sprouts, a collaboration between Foreign Policy and the Center for a New American Security.  It’s been a mixed summer for Ukraine. Kyiv’s counteroffensive is progressing slowly, and the country was stymied in its bid to join NATO. But Russia has suffered military setbacks, and the West continues to offer Ukraine important security guarantees. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal to discuss the latest in the war and assess where things might head next. Kendall-Taylor is the director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for New American Security.

On July 11 and 12, NATO held its widely anticipated Vilnius Summit to discuss current functions of the alliance as well as the future of Ukrainian membership. Despite hope that NATO may provide a clearer path for Ukraine’s accession into NATO, the alliance reiterated its commitment to Ukrainian membership once allies agree and conditions are met, leaving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy upset. Despite a high emphasis on Russia's war in Ukraine, the Aaliance also discussed Chinese influence, defense expenditures, and cybersecurity. To discuss the key takeaways of the Vilnius Summit, Ambassador Kurt Volker and Ambassador Douglas Lute join Carisa Nietsche and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts. Ambassador Douglas Lute is the former U.S. Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Council. He currently serves as the chair of International and Defense Practices at BGR Group. Ambassador Kurt Volker is the former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017-2019. He is also the former U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009. He currently serves as co-chair of the BGR’s advisory board.

In collaboration Foreign Policy Magazine, today we bring you a special bonus episode featuring Paul Scharre, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies here at CNAS. He joins host Ravi Agrawal and the Foreign Policy Live podcast to discuss his latest book Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, his Foreign Policy cover article, and the global state of AI. We return with a new episode this Friday.