What Bitcoin Did

American HODL, a Bitcoin commentator dedicated to long-term adoption, and Matt Odell, a Bitcoin developer and researcher, dissect a tumultuous year for Bitcoin. They explore why super cycle expectations fell flat and the shifting dynamics of institutional investment versus retail absence. The duo highlights how market distortions, driven by influencers and leverage, impacted true adoption. They delve into Bitcoin's performance against gold, the implications of quantum risk, and the complex relationship between governance and the crypto space.

Joe Carlasare, a lawyer and macro-crypto commentator, breaks down the misconceptions surrounding Bitcoin’s recent performance. He delves into why 2025 fell short of expectations, attributing it to market volatility and investor sentiment shifts toward AI and gold. Joe explains how changing market structures challenge traditional cycle theories, suggesting Bitcoin's consolidation may signal potential for bullish growth. He also shares insights on macroeconomic factors and predicts that reclaiming the 100k mark could unleash powerful momentum for Bitcoin in 2026.

David Dredge, a seasoned market risk specialist, explores the misinterpretation of risk across global markets. He highlights that Bitcoin's recent struggles reflect structural stress, not failure. Dredge discusses how suppressed volatility invites dangerous leverage, transforming Bitcoin's market landscape through ETFs and options. He warns of systemic vulnerabilities due to traditional finance's interference, critiques central bank policies, and stresses the importance of owning participatory assets and hedges to navigate potential financial turmoil.

Jeff Ross, a macro hedge fund manager and expert on Bitcoin, dives into the cracks of the global financial system. He explains how prolonged U.S. manufacturing recessions are pulling Bitcoin down and why rising interest rates in Japan are sending shockwaves globally. Jeff discusses the implications of a shift away from the U.S. dollar as the main reserve and the potential for AI and manufacturing to shape future markets. He argues that deflation could threaten fiat currencies, positioning Bitcoin for a possible resurgence by 2026, driven by liquidity and economic changes.

Sam Callahan, Director of Strategy & Research at Orange BTC, dives deep into Bitcoin's surprising resilience amidst global liquidity fluctuations. He explains how Bitcoin can decouple from macro conditions and discusses the alarming implications of fiscal dominance and entitlement insolvency on the financial system. With strong fundamentals contradicting current price woes, he highlights the critical juncture Bitcoin is in. Callahan also explores innovative solutions like BitBonds for addressing financial deficits, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptability in an evolving market.

Saifedean Ammous, an economist known for his work on money and Bitcoin, dives deep into the hidden history of fiat money and its impact since 1914. He argues that inflation is a cultural threat, distorting savings and longer-term thinking. Central banks, he posits, enable endless deficits without public consent, fundamentally changing civilization. Ammous also presents Bitcoin as a groundbreaking alternative that could reshape financial landscapes, emphasizing its role as a price technology and its potential to prevent future wars.

Eric Yakes, an investor and Bitcoin-focused analyst, shares insights on the current state of Bitcoin. He argues that price is determined by fundamentals rather than cycles. Yakes explains the impact of marginal supply and demand, and how institutional groundwork precedes significant Bitcoin price shifts. He discusses the potential for nation-state adoption and why liquidity constraints hold back Bitcoin's growth. Additionally, he explores the looming threat of quantum computing and the importance of developing quantum-resistant technologies.

Jeff Walton, a corporate executive and Bitcoin treasury specialist, dives into the evolving landscape of Bitcoin treasuries and institutional adoption. He discusses the survival strategies of treasury companies, the potential for yield through Bitcoin-backed finance, and the rise of digital credit. Walton forecasts explosive growth in corporate adoption, alongside the risks facing smaller treasuries. The conversation also explores Strive's innovative strategies, including their perpetual preferred equity product and the impact of market dynamics on treasury firms.

Join Eric Yakes, co-founder of Gridless and Bitcoin mining entrepreneur, Phillip Walton, energy project expert, and Mark Kamau, Kenyan UX designer, as they explore the transformative power of Bitcoin for electrifying remote African communities. They discuss the journey to the off-grid village of Saru, how Bitcoin mining makes energy projects profitable, and the failures of traditional NGOs. Learn about the emerging circular Bitcoin economies in Kenya and how local insights shape the future of energy and technology adoption.

Seb Bunney, an author and monetary systems commentator, dives into the impact of broken money on societal structures. He shares his journey from mountain-biking to uncovering how monetary policy affects everything from housing to politics. Seb discusses why younger generations lean towards socialism, the failings of democracies, and the potential of Bitcoin to realign societal values. He introduces his essay on the distortions in language and science, arguing for separation of money and state to foster true incentives.