What Bitcoin Did 2026 Macro Outlook and What It Means for Bitcoin | Joe Carlasare
26 snips
Dec 30, 2025 
Joe Carlasare, a lawyer and macro-crypto commentator, breaks down the misconceptions surrounding Bitcoin’s recent performance. He delves into why 2025 fell short of expectations, attributing it to market volatility and investor sentiment shifts toward AI and gold. Joe explains how changing market structures challenge traditional cycle theories, suggesting Bitcoin's consolidation may signal potential for bullish growth. He also shares insights on macroeconomic factors and predicts that reclaiming the 100k mark could unleash powerful momentum for Bitcoin in 2026.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
October 10 Liquidation Hurt Market Breadth
- Joe cites the October 10 liquidation event as a major idiosyncratic shock that damaged market participants' balance sheets.
- He links that event to a prolonged period of malaise and a November bottom near $80k.
Long-Term Holders Face Lifecycle Pressure
- Joe recounts a seven-figure holder considering selling due to bearish sentiment and time horizons.
- That story illustrates how negative psychology can force long-term holders to exit for lifecycle needs.
Use Positioning Not Calendars For Targets
- Expect marginal buyers and marginal sellers to determine yearly tops rather than fixed calendar rules.
- Use positioning, technical indicators, and psychology to set realistic price targets.