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Kerre Woodham Mornings Podcast

Latest episodes

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Jul 18, 2024 • 8min

Ashley Church: Property Commentator on falling inflation and banks cutting their home loan rates

The tide could be turning for those looking to buy a home.  High interest rates are dropping, ANZ dropping its home loan rates amid falling inflation and a softened tone from the Reserve Bank.  Westpac dropped their rates a week prior, cutting its 6, 12, and 18-month home loan rates.  Property Commentator Ashley Church told Kerre Woodham it’s good news for the housing market.  He said he didn’t expect much would happen prior to November, since banks have been following the rhetoric from the Reserve Bank, keeping rates high.  Church said Banks have clearly decided that enough is enough, and are taking a step out.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 17, 2024 • 7min

Kerre Woodham: Give me pragmatism over idealism any day

The Government is no longer on track to meet its third emissions budget according to projections, and unless we meet those Paris commitments, billions of dollars could be sent offshore to pay for international climate mitigation. We failed to meet our budget. We failed to complete the plan and therefore we will be punished. Very bad news.   But guess what? As of December 2023, not a single G20 country had policies in place that are consistent with their own commitments to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global heating to 1.5% and meeting their fair share of emissions reductions. Eight G20 countries would be rated as critically insufficient, which is just woeful and pathetic, and we can't expect anything of them - that would be Argentina, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, Canada, Mexico and Indonesia. Some of those are very wealthy countries. Some of those have resources that they could put towards addressing the climate emergency. Have they done so? Nope, haven't even looked like it. Critically insufficient. It means their climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action. You know, you could understand it if we're talking about a country in the developing world that has been unable to meet its climate change commitments. You know, it's a lot to put in infrastructure to change the way you heat communities or the way you get energy to a community. So you could imagine countries in developing parts of the world. But no. Canada, quite wealthy South Korea, pretty wealthy too. Mexico and Indonesia, no, they don't care. It's the only thing you can draw from that really.    Then we've got China, Brazil, Australia, the EU and the UK - they're highly insufficient. So they haven't done enough either. Way off target. So when we hear that we're really bad and we've failed to meet our budget and what a dreadful country of polluters we are, we're not alone on the naughty step. And it doesn't mean, of course, that we shouldn't be doing all we reasonably can to reduce harmful emissions. It doesn't mean that we just stick two fingers and go you know what, we're not going to follow the best science and we're not going to follow the best practice we're just going to pollute away. It doesn't mean that at all, and certainly the Government doesn't have its head in the sand.   “We've tried to do as much as we can to simplify this plan. Our plan this time is shorter. It's more concise. It's focused on the big dots that are going to move us in the right direction, and that's around doubling renewables. It's about the work that we're doing around giving farmers a tool to reduce emissions in the ag space. And you know, we're confident that our plan is going to allow us to get to the targets that we're seeing. It's going to be challenging, but we're being pragmatic around the process to get there.”   Beautiful word, pragmatic. There it is. Pragmatism. Fabulous. It really gets my goat that you've got children who are hysterical because they believe the world will be in flames as a result of what heartless, thoughtless, crass generations have done. And yet, actually, the planet itself will be fine. We might pollute our own selves out of existence a few turns of the earth ahead. But seriously when they are shouting in the streets about what we need to do and how this is the nuclear moment and let's all get out there ... seriously, the key word in what Simon Watts was saying was pragmatic. Let's do all we reasonably can.   The sentence in the story that resonated with me too is that the government is keen to ensure reducing emissions does not come at the expense of growth. We just have to do it smarter. We can do it. We don't have to do it in the old ways, children, but we don't hobble ourselves. Because if we want to pay the police more, we need to be wealthier. We want better hospitals, as a country, we have to earn more, and handicapping ourselves right now to look virtuous in the eyes of the world, who do not care, it will not serve us well.   You could have the young people looking at Scandinavia. They've got women on the boards and they've got equality within society and they're highly taxed. Yeah, because they're really, really highly waged. Everybody lauds the Scandinavian countries as being the gold standard on almost every indicator worth measuring, from public health to educational attainment, to social well-being, the Scandinavians have got it on. And that's because they've grown wealthy on extractive industries. They used to be primitive. They used to be subsistence-type economies. Until they realised hang on a minute, we've got stuff that people want. And their economic success is basically based on extractive industries. Norway's oil, Sweden's iron ore, Finland's forests, huge carbon footprints but what the hey? They're wealthy. They're generous. Their people, have a great time. They enjoy high educational wellbeing, they enjoy superior health outcomes cause they're rich. And everybody says ooh look at Scandinavia and nobody says, ooh, look at dirty, filthy, polluting extractive Scandinavia, do they?   You can only afford to be generous when you've got the income to do so. So, give me a realistic, pragmatic plan over pie in the sky, idealism any day of the week.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 16, 2024 • 10min

Julie Haggy: Transparency International NZ CEO on Shane Jones' meetings and the need for transparency

Shane Jones has come under fire for an undeclared dinner with mining interests.  An article from Newsroom reveals that the dinner was excluded from his ministerial diary, Jones saying that the dinner was “informal” and “last-minute”.  He then corrected himself, saying the dinner was arranged in advance.  When questioned why the dinner wasn’t in the dairy, Jones said it was “less conspiracy more cock-up - and inattention in our office,” promising to tighten the administration of the diary for the future.  Julie Haggie, CEO of Transparency International NZ, told Kerre Woodham that transparency is absolutely necessary, especially when the Minister wants to use a social license to take a considerable amount of power to make decisions.  She said the issue is fast tracking sets up a situation where ministries are referring cases, but there’s limited opportunity for review, limited advice, and limited challenge, which is quite a concentration of power.  Haggie said that the power shifts from the Government agency and Minister, and so much greater transparency and more accountability is very important.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 16, 2024 • 13min

Liam Dann: NZ Herald Business Editor on the falling inflation rate

Inflation is continuing to fall.  Latest Stats NZ figures show the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% in the year to June.  Today's rate is down from 4% in the year to March this year, and well down from 7.3% annually to June 2022.  Economists had forecast inflation would land on 3.3-3.5%.  NZ Herlad Business Editor Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham that there is finally starting to be some light at the end of the tunnel.  He said that it’s hard to know when the first interest rate cut will be as some of it comes down to leadership, but odds are looking very strong for a November rate cut.  He said that you’ll start to see the markets be really enthusiastic, and they’ll be pushing hard on October.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 16, 2024 • 8min

Kerre Woodham: What do police do now?

The other big news story from last night was the result of the arbitration between the New Zealand Police and the Police Association. This is what happens when you go to arbitration, there's a winner and there's a loser. And in this case, the Police Association has lost in final offer arbitration, with the government's proposal to increase police pay being chosen.   When you go to arbitration, you put your offer in as the Police Association and it can't be too ridiculous because if it's too ridiculous the arbiter will simply take the most reasonable and sensible offer. So you have to go in with your best offer, but it has to be reasonable. Same with the government, it has to be reasonable, it has to cover off the conditions, it's got to be an acceptable offer. And then there is no meeting between these two offers, it's one or the other. And what happened? Well, the Police Association was the other. The government's proposal was accepted, and that offer is a $1500 lump sum payment, a $5000 wage increase, a 5.25% increase in allowances back dated to November of 2023, a 4% wage increase from July 1st this year, a 4% wage increase from July 1st next year and paid overtime as of July 1st 2025. It's pretty similar to the offer that was made by the Government earlier this year and that was an offer that was roundly rejected by 75% of those police officers who voted.   The Police Deputy Commissioner acknowledged that officers would be disappointed and frustrated but it was the independent arbitrator that found the offer from New Zealand Police was fair. And that's what I mean about arbitration. With mediation, the mediator isn't a decision maker and the process is based on achieving co-operation between the parties. So you sit there and say, well, that seems reasonable. What do you think about that, and you get them to work together to make their own decisions and agreements, and the mediator’s simply there to help guide the discussions. With arbitration, it's the private determination of a dispute. It's gone past mediation. It's now a dispute and an independent third party will rule a settlement of the dispute after considering the representations of the parties. It's called an award, it's final and it's binding on the party, so there's no walking back from that. It's written and it's enforceable by the courts.   So where does that leave police officers? You had an independent third party who decided that the New Zealand Police offer was fair and reasonable. And ultimately, by rejecting the Police Association, that the Police Association were asking for too much under the circumstances. So, if you're an officer who's not happy, what do you do now? Do you wait for the better times? Or do you walk? That's all you can do. And where does that leave the coalition Government’s promise of 500 more police officers in their first two years of government?   Police Minister Mark Mitchell says they wanted to do more, but the economic conditions meant the offer was the very best that they could do.   “I completely, totally understand, you know, the way our police are feeling but hand on heart line, we've inherited it. We've had a huge hospital pass and we've put together what we think is a really fair package. This new offer that our government put on the table is a quarter of a billion dollars more in an environment where as a country we're paying $8.5 billion a year just in interest payments. You know we've got to get our books back in order. We've got to start fighting our way back to a surplus and getting the economy up and running again.”  Well, he's quite right. That was Mark Mitchell talking to Ryan Bridge on Early Edition this morning. He's quite right. I mean, we can only give what we've got, we don't have the money, we can't pay the same wages as other countries, like Denmark is comparable in size, or Australia, who's our neighbour. We just can't. This is the price of the policies that were administered during the last six years. This is what happens.   Chris Cahill of the Police Association says police are really disappointed and they appear to be hamstrung because they are a group of people who simply cannot strike.   “It's not the worst deal ever, Mike, without a doubt. The problem is it doesn't get officers back even with inflation over the, sort of the five-year period. So the last two years and the three years going forward, and the other thing it doesn't do is address the big increases in demand, the big increases in  risk and, and, complexity in the role and, and, other groups such as nurses and teachers that have been able to take industrial action have had some recognition for that over the last five or ten years. Police never have. So there's those two issues that it has really why we haven't been able to settle.”  So there we go, Chris Cahill says. It's not the worst in the world, but it doesn't take into account the long, protracted industrial dispute, and the fact that the risks of the job have increased, which everybody would acknowledge is true.   So what do you do now? You've got a young person in your family or somebody who's looking to do a career change, who wants to join the police, as a family member, what do you say? You are a serving police officer, you've been holding out, probably holding out for a National-led government who are more likely to be reasonable, who are more likely to want a galvanised police service who have had a lift in morale, who believe that they have a government who's backing them ... you've probably been waiting for that and this is what they're offering. Is it good enough to keep you here until the good times roll around the corner? We are hearing reports from overseas that, you know, maybe the streets aren't quite paved with gold the way we've heard. Times are tough pretty much everywhere. Crime is up. There's a contempt for authority among certain groups of people that's on the rise. And that's the world over.   So what do you do? Settle in and wait it out for the better times that must come or have you reached breaking point? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 15, 2024 • 35min

Greg Foran: Air NZ CEO takes talkback in studio with Kerre Woodham

Cancellation rates at Air New Zealand are falling but the airline’s chief executive Greg Foran acknowledges delays for passengers are frustrating and have to be reduced.  Speaking on Kerre Woodham’s Newstalk ZB show, Foran also said he could understand the frustration at being bused to destinations when flights are cancelled, but the airline was meeting its obligations if it did get passengers to where they needed to get to within a reasonable time.  In response to a question about charging fees on debit cards, Foran said the policy wasn’t going to change as it would have to look for other ways of making up that revenue.  One caller said he had been delayed on 23 out of 24 domestic flights he’d been on this year and questioned the airline’s on-time performance.  On-time performance (OTP) is an industry-wide measurement, defined as flights that arrive at their destination within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival time.  Foran said the cancellation rate had fallen to 3.2% of all flights and punctuality was improving.  Figures released earlier this year show that in the January to March quarter, Air NZ OTP for domestic jets was 81.4%.  But the caller said: ‘‘You just don’t book a meeting around an Air New Zealand flight.’'  One recent flight was due to get him from Palmerston North to Auckland at 1pm, but a plane breakdown meant a bus trip to Wellington to catch another flight and he didn’t make it back home until 1am.  ‘‘You got me home which is great – but I’ve only had one flight on time. It’s shocking,’’ the caller said.  Foran said while averages could show improvement, every single case was different and the airline was concentrating its efforts on improving punctuality. It had been hit with engine maintenance problems on its domestic jet fleet and other supply chain issues were still affecting it, he said.  ‘‘It is a top priority for us to get that sorted.’'      The caller said it was especially frustrating because the cost of travel was going up – including Koru membership.  ‘‘We’re paying an extra $200 for that and you can’t get us there on time,’’ the caller said.  Foran said there would be other cases where people’s experience of punctuality had been good.  ‘’Our objective is you got to leave on time, you got to arrive on time. We’ve got to make sure we don’t lose anything in between. There will be cases where we can’t and you accept that and I accept that but overall it’s got to improve.”  In response to another caller who had paid hundreds of dollars for a flight only to have it cancelled and taken by bus to his destination; Foran said: ‘‘obviously, it is not our preference - we’d much rather that we got you there by plane, (but) we’re fulfilling our obligations of getting you there.’'  Not everyone would have been paying hundreds of dollars, ‘‘quite a few’' would have paid $80.  ‘‘There are times that these things happen and they are beyond our control, but most times we do get people to where they need to get to.’'  On charging for debit cards, Foran said the airline incurred some administrative costs.  ’’We’ve got a charging structure and that’s how it operates.’'  Foran also reassured listeners with power wheelchairs (which can weigh around 140kg) that it wasn’t the airline’s policy to charge for them and it would look at ways of making international check-in smoother for those who need them.  Grant Bradley has been working at the Herald since 1993. He is the Business Herald’s deputy editor and covers aviation and tourism.    WATCH ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 15, 2024 • 8min

Kerre Woodham: It would be great if we could see the Trump rally shooting as a reset

Goodness gracious me, what a weekend, wasn't it? If he wasn't a shoe-in after Joe Biden's bumbling mis-speaking performance that we were incredulous about on Friday, you can bet the presidency is the Donald’s for the losing now, after the failed assassination attempt at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend. Yet to be officially confirmed that it was an actual assassination attempt, but when it looks like one, sounds like one, feels like one, you can probably assume it was one. Absolutely extraordinary scenes. And the show of defiance in the immediate aftermath of the shooting, that image of Trump being led off stage with the raised fist and the American flag just so, reminded me of that iconic Iwo Jima photo of the GI's raising the flag. It was one of those photos for the ages, really. Those who believe in God and Trump will believe that God protected their man, while taking the lives of others. Dissenting voices within the Republicans who aren't a hundy on Trump, they won't dare to raise their voices at the GOP convention - which is just hours away from confirming Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. As US correspondent Nick Bryant points out, there won't be a platform for any dissenting voices. "One of the key points to make about the convention - there are Republicans who have serious misgivings about Donald Trump. There are many Republicans who wanted Nikki Haley. There are many Republicans who are who are still deeply uneasy about his authoritarian tendencies, and they have fears that American democracy really isn't safe if he is returned to the White House." "And it's going to be very difficult to make that case in a in a voluble sense, to raise your voice against Trump in this moment, given that the party has just rallied around him. And this kind of cult that Trump has kind of created ever since he came down that golden escalator in 2015, it's become even stronger as a result of this failed assassination attempt." Well, it really has. He looks quite literally bulletproof, doesn't he? There have been calls for the campaigning rhetoric to be toned down in the wake of the shooting. Republican Representative Steve Scalise was among six people shot when a gunman opened fire at a baseball field in Virginia in 2017, when the Republican congressional baseball team was practising ahead of a charity game. The gunman, who was killed by police, was angry with the Republican Party, so instead of writing a letter to the editor, or ringing talk radio, he picks up a gun and goes to shoot at them. He said he wanted to see all sides tone down the rhetoric surrounding the election. And he said after the 2017 there was a reset moment and he hopes one will be possible again. He said - moments like yesterday refocus, everybody, reset everything, and in the shooting in 2017 for a long period of time, there did seem to be a dialling down and hopefully there'll be a dialling down again. I think everybody's got to look in the mirror. And Melania Trump, wife of Donald Trump, released a very moving statement - an unusual one, because she has stayed well out of this. And you can kind of see why in her statement. She said - a monster who recognised my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to wring out (her words) Donald's passion, his laughter, ingenuity, love of music and inspiration. The core facets of my husband's life - his human side - were buried below the political machine. Donald, the generous and caring man who I've been with through the best of times and the worst of times. Let us not forget that differing opinions, policy and political games are inferior to love. We're all humans, fundamentally, instinctively, we want to help one another. American politics are only one vehicle that can uplift our communities. Love compassion, kindness, and empathy, and necessities. I’ve paraphrased a bit here, but basically, is she saying don't let the politics drown out the people. Don't let the political machine reduce you to a one dimensional stereotype. And isn't that true of what's been happening the world over? When you think of the anger and the inflamed passions that we've seen around the world and here, we're not immune to it. There were some terrible things that were said about people across the political spectrum, you know, rape, murder, rape of children, these are New Zealanders saying that, thinking that they can say it on the dark web and nobody will know it's them. Because of politics. And you can get angry and you can believe that people make wrong choices and you can believe that they don't have the best interests of a community at heart, but how does violence and violent rhetoric help in any way, shape or form? You wonder if people feel that they haven't got a platform to speak, that they're not being heard, which results in this kind of anger and this kind of violence. And I'm not just talking about this particular shooting, I'm talking about what's happening the world over. Do people feel they don't have the skills to be able to speak up and articulate how they're feeling? Is that is that why we're seeing so much violence? Literal violence and metaphorical violence. Do people feel as soon as they speak their mind, they're going to be shouted down and called bad people? You know, we used to be able to have differing opinions. We used to be able to talk about it. We used to be able to have passioned impassioned debates, and many of us still can. But there are a group of people who either feel so misrepresented or completely ignored, or reviled, and who are unable to take a stand on a platform and have their say, express how they feel and be heard, that they resort to violence. And it would be great if we could see this as a reset. I rather fear that than the US gun violence is so common. Not as common in the political realm, but you know, if you heard Richard Arnold, there have been plenty of examples of political shootings in recent times, not assassinations of former presidents, but certainly, as we saw with the the Republican baseball game, there have been political shootings. It may be too late for the US, but I hope to hell it's not too late for us. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 12, 2024 • 3min

Kerre Woodham: More road cones aren't the answer to workplace safety

I know the road cones might seem trivial, but to me, I've always thought they were a metaphor for excessive spending and over-rigorous regulation.   When you looked at road cones, it wasn't a little cherry orange witches hat you saw, it was costs being inflated and people being overly cautious, the wasting of time and money, which was happening across so many government departments. When National referred to road cones during the election campaign, as they did from time to time, I thought they too were using it as a symbol of excess and a symbol of red tape strangling growth. But no, road cones are in fact in the gun.   Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced excessive use of the temporary traffic management tools (as they're officially known), must come to an end.  He says use of road cones is out of control and the temporary speed limit reductions that are often left in place when work is complete is a massive frustration for drivers, and says common sense must prevail.   Of course, safety for road workers must be paramount. I heard Andrew mention 40 deaths a year... well, no, there are 10 deaths per year among road workers and 30 serious injury accidents. Way too many. That's 10 deaths too many, 30 serious injury accidents too many, even taking into account that you're working with unforgiving machinery and that there are far more risk factors involved than there are in working in an office, that's way too many accidents.   But clearly an overabundance of road cones doesn't equate to an overabundance of caution. There are millions of road cones on our roads, and they are not keeping the road workers safe. It's unlikely more road cones is going to be the answer when it comes to workplace safety.   I imagine there will be a chill wind blowing through the accounts offices of all those companies and contractors that have been working for government departments. No more sending off of invoices and just counting the gold coins coming back into the company. This seems to send a message that costs will be questioned and audited and double checked, and this is a very, very good thing. People have to be accountable when it's taxpayer dollars that are funding the projects, and I suspect that while many, many companies and businesses and who can blame them, have had a glorious few years feathering their nests, the good times are fast coming to an end.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 12, 2024 • 6min

Where I Ate Last with Tony Astle: Grand Harbour

This week Tony Astle ate at Grand Harbour, a Chinese fine dining restaurant with a host of delicious traditional recipes. He sampled the Pork and vegetable spring rolls, the Xiaolongbao, the spinach and prawn dumplings, and their famous deep fried squid. "I have consumed many more dishes at this venue. I LOVE the tripe and tendons." LISTEN ABOVE   Recipe of the Week: Cassis Macerated Apples and Blackberries This week Tony Astle is serving up a recipe for Cassis Macerated Apples and Blackberries, topped with Meringue and Baked.     Ingredients:  Fruit Mixture  1 kg Granny Smith apples, peeled, cored and thinly sliced  170 g sugar  60 g brown sugar  350 ml water  Zest of 1 orange  200 6 blackberries (fresh or frozen)     Meringue  235 g sugar  Half tbsp glucose  50 ml water  3 egg white     Method:   Fruit Mixture  Combine apples, sugars, water and zest in a pot.  Bring to a boil but avoid turning the apples mushy. Add the blackberries.  Cook for 5 minutes. Cool. Then add the cassis     Meringue  Combine water glucose and sugar in a pan.  Heat without stirring until it reaches 125 deg C on a sugar thermometer.  Beat the egg whites, until they have stiff peaks.  With the beater still running, pour the sugar syrup onto the egg whites.  Continue beating until the mixture is smooth and thick.  Note: the meringue can be refrigerated until required.        Finishing  Heat ban oven to 180 deg C.  In a pan, heat the fruit mix, then fill individual bowls.  Top with the meringue.  Bake for about 15 minutes, so the meringue is browned slightly.  Serve with whipped cream.    LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Jul 11, 2024 • 7min

Kerre Woodham: Are you starting to feel more confident?

Well, did we get some good news with the Reserve Bank's report yesterday? Not as full as their OCR statement that we're expecting in August, but an update nonetheless. Is the long winter of our financial discontent about to be made glorious summer? Will the Reserve Bank ease its restrictive monetary policy this year so that we don't all have to survive to 25, we can thrive in 25, giving those who are paying mortgages and business loans some respite?   Certainly, indications are that the engineered recession that's affected so many New Zealanders could be coming to an end. The Reserve Bank got what they wanted, business and consumer confidence has plummeted, unemployment has risen, and finally, finally, the battle to restore inflation to the 1- 3% target could be showing signs of being won.   A lot of conditionals in there: could be, might, should, but CoreLogic NZ’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says given the continued weakness of the economy in recent months, there is a chance the August statement from the Reserve Bank could be the one where it softens its tone and starts to lay the groundwork for an OCR cut as early as November. A lot of people had been talking about those cuts happening next year, now there are signs that it could be as early as November. It stayed the same yesterday so you might be wondering why the excitement, but it was in the final comment in the statement that says we could be looking to ease some of the restrictions around economic policy.   The New Zealand Institute for Economic Research says we expect an OCR cut in the first half of 2025, with the risks increasingly tilted towards February 2025. The release of the June quarter CPI next Wednesday will be an important influence on the timing of when OCR cuts will begin, given that the Reserve Bank is still concerned about non-tradable inflation, they’re concerned that will remain persistently high. So with the non-tradable inflation, that's your insurance going up, that's your council rates, that's your rent, cigarettes and tobacco.   Kiwibank economists are far more bullish, saying the signs are that interest rate cuts will happen quickly next year. They're saying, perhaps by November. And then once the OCR comes down, then the interest rate cuts will happen early next year. So you need to see the OCR come down, and then the interest rates will follow, and it will happen quickly. We should bear in mind that while interest rate cuts will be good news for those who have home and business loans, those who are living off their term deposits won't be quite so thrilled.   So August will be the time when we know for sure whether the noose will be loosened. But are you already feeling more optimistic? I am. When you hear Kiwibank saying interest rate cuts will happen really quickly next year, we're looking to November for the OCR to come down, for inflation to get back into that target of 1-3%, that everything that the Reserve Bank has done... It's taken some time because there are some people who have money, there are some people who have profited from the recession and that's what happens in every recession there are winners and losers. So it took them longer than they thought to bring about the unemployment, to bring about the plummeting business confidence, consumer confidence. And so the pain for some people has lasted longer. But are you getting a sense, especially in your business, that things are on the up?   Confidence is all about propaganda, really. It's all about good news stories. It feeds on itself. When you have people saying, yep, the interest rate cuts are going to happen and they're going to happen quickly, then you start to think, okay, I'll have a little bit more money left in my pocket. If I can set my mortgage to those lower interest rates there'll be a bit leftover. I can spend a little bit more. I can start to enjoy life a bit more rather than clawing your way from pay packet to pay packet. I can get into my local shops, I can make some of those discretionary spends I haven't been making. Is that the sense you're getting if you're in retail? And if you're somebody with a mortgage, a loan, a business loan, do you believe that business will pick up? That you can finally put your house on the market if you've been holding off until confidence improves, and that's what it is. That you will finally have a few more cents left over after the bills have been paid. Is the phone starting to ring again with people booking more jobs?   Or are we not out of the woods yet? What is your sense on the ground? If you're one of those who's looking to refix your mortgage, are you looking to six months? A year? Are you looking at two years? Are you starting to feel more positive? Are there more good news stories coming from your friends, your colleagues, those in your community?   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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