In Their Own Words

Bill Scherkenbach, a longtime protégé of Dr. W. Edwards Deming and a leader in statistical methods at Ford and GM, shares invaluable insights on profound knowledge. He emphasizes that 'knowledge without action is useless' and connects the principles of systems thinking to transformative management. Bill breaks down the four components of profound knowledge, explores the complexities of business, and discusses the importance of balancing local metrics with systemic aims. Tune in for compelling thoughts on motivation and the essence of learning!

Join John Dues, an educator pioneering Deming's principles in schools, as he reveals why traditional goal setting often leads to frustration in education. He discusses how common stretch goals can miss the mark, showcasing an example using third-grade reading data. John introduces three key conditions for effective goal setting: capability, variation, and stability. The conversation also highlights the importance of a positive improvement mindset over punitive targets, emphasizing the need for understanding system behavior to truly enhance student learning and joy.

Lyle "Lee" Jenkins, a career educator and former superintendent, founded Crazy Simple Education to apply W. Edwards Deming's quality principles to academia. He discusses how Deming’s approach transforms learning into a team sport rather than a pressure cooker. Lee emphasizes defining learning outcomes, the pitfalls of numerical goals, and the effectiveness of random sample quizzes in fostering long-term retention. He also highlights how celebrating team achievements can reignite students' passion for learning and combat the decline in their love for school.

Bill Scherkenbach, a longtime protégé of Dr. W. Edwards Deming, shares deep insights into leadership and change management. He discusses the importance of connecting on physical, logical, and emotional levels to get things done effectively. Bill introduces his Venn diagram model for achieving harmony and emphasizes the need for sustained presence in organizations to foster transformation. He warns against common leadership mistakes and highlights the necessity of understanding employees' motivations to enhance communication and engagement.

What is your data trying to tell you? In this episode, John Dues talks to Andrew Stotz about why most leaders misread data, overreact to single results, and miss the real story. Discover how Deming thinking exposes when change is truly happening and how to use a process behavior chart to listen to the real story. Plus, find out why nine years of 'stable' results may still demand transformation. Tune in and rethink data-driven leadership! 0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is understanding variation is the key to data analysis. John, take it away. 0:00:27.8 John Dues: Andrew, it's good to be back. Yeah. So, we've just started the school year in Ohio, so I thought doing a session on goal setting would be a good place to kick off the year. And I was thinking a lot of leaders, school leaders and leaders in general, are setting goals around this time period. And I was really thinking about having this Deming lens. I was thinking, how did I set goals before I sort of started understanding this approach? And it's, you know, this is one of those things where if you really stop and think about it, goal setting is a lot harder than it seems at first glance. Things like, how do you set a reasonable goal? And then once you've gotten to that place, how do you know if things are improving? How do you know if things are getting worse? And I was thinking how powerful this understanding variation method is for folks that may be struggling with those questions. 0:01:32.9 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. In fact, that's a great question for the listener and the viewer. Like, how do you set goals? How did you set goals in the past? How have you improved that? And I was thinking when you were speaking, I didn't set goals. I gave proclamations. You know, 20% of I want to see this and that. And they were just stretch targets without any means or methods. So yeah, interesting. 0:01:55.2 John Dues: Yeah. How do you set the target? Was it arbitrary? Is it based on some standard that you heard somewhere? A lot of times you have no idea sort of what's behind that target or you've sort of associated it to something that's familiar. Like in my case, we often sort of set goals that sort of mimic the grade scale. So, you know, 80% is a common goal for something like test scores, you know. 0:02:23.7 Andrew Stotz: But they don't even call them goals anymore. They call them, let me remember, I think it's called KPIs. 0:02:30.0 John Dues: KPIs, targets, you know, lots of different things for sure. And I think what I've seen is that a lot of the reason that goal setting is so hard is because you, well, one, you misinterpret your data in the first place. And a lot of that misinterpretation, at least in the education sector, is because leaders don't have the knowledge. They don't know about natural variation. They're typically making comparisons between some current performance level, some previous value. But those two things, those two data points don't show you, don't convey the behavior of that data across time. So, what we do and what I did before I sort of discovered this method is you overreact to a single data point. Probably less frequently, you underreact to the data because you don't have this understanding of, you know, how much is the data moving up and down sort of naturally almost no matter what you're doing. Now, that's not always the case, but that's the case that I've found in a lot of situations. And so until you start to take that into account, those natural ups and downs, then you just misinterpret the data over and over again, usually by overreacting is what I've seen. 0:03:54.9 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. 0:03:56.0 John Dues: So there's, you know, I think as a starting point, people in the Deming community will be familiar with, a lot of people. But others listening to this probably have never heard of this idea of dividing variation into, I've heard it described as like two flavors. There's the routine variation, what I call natural variation, things vary naturally no matter what you're doing. And then there's exceptional variation where things are so different that there is reason to pay attention to this. And what I found through studying this is, the key is knowing how to tell the difference between those two types of variation. And don't do that, lots of confusion, lots of wasted effort. And so that's really where the power of this methodology comes into play. And for anybody that's studied this, you sort of realize that you have to have a tool to make that differentiation. It's not arbitrary. And so that's where what I call the process behavior chart, some people call the control chart, where that comes into play because that tool allows us to tell what type of variation is present. And it also allows us to tell if the system is predictable or unpredictable. And once we have that understanding, then we can chart an improvement sort of roadmap that makes sense. 0:05:21.8 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. In fact, I've applied two of the things, you know, one of the things to my pass rates and admission rates, I applied the process chart, the control chart, based upon your recommendation a long time ago. And it did help me to kind of think if, you know, in my case, I wanted to break out of that standard outcome that I was getting. And so I realized, something has to change substantially in the system in order to get a different result than this variation that I was getting. That was the first thing. And then the second one, a couple of nights ago, I was giving a lecture and I was using your work that you and I have talked about, as well as Mike Rother's stuff on goal setting and having the target. And then there's that obstacle. And what I realized when I gave a little talk on it and I used the diagram and I showed the obstacle, it became kind of apparent to everybody like, oh, yeah, there's an obstacle there that we don't know how to solve. 0:06:27.6 John Dues: Yeah. 0:06:28.3 Andrew Stotz: And that's where PDSA came in. And we started talking about that, as you have taught previously. So, yeah, I'm excited to hear what you have to say today. 0:06:38.2 John Dues: Yeah. And the Mike Rother model, I mean, he does have this target that's this long term target that's pretty hard to hit. And you don't really know what you're going to do. But the difference there then in the situation I'm describing is that that in Mike's model, that target is knowingly outside of the current sort of capability of the system. And they're coming together as a team and saying, how do we get to that target six months from now or a year from now? And we're working towards that rather than someone has just arbitrarily set some target, without a realization that the system isn't capable of hitting that currently. Those are two completely different scenarios. Yeah. So, I think I'll share my screen. Well, actually, before I do that, I would just say, too, because I know sometimes when I introduce these things, a lot of times people get scared away because they think the math is hard. And what I would say there is that there's the creation of a process behavior chart probably takes about fourth grade level math skills. You really only need to do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. 0:07:49.3 John Dues: That's it. But the thinking, I think, actually can be taught all the way down to the kindergarten level. And I've actually seen kindergartners explain the data on a process behavior chart. So, if anybody gets scared away at this part, the math is simple and the thinking is also pretty simple and powerful once you sort of have the basics. So, I'll go ahead and share my screen so the folks that are watching have a visual to follow along on. And for those that don't, I'll do my best to describe it. When we're talking about a process behavior chart, and this one's sort of an annotated version so that things are clear. But basically a process behavior chart is just a time sequence chart. It has upper and lower natural process limits, and we plot data for some measure that we're interested in. And the chart typically has a central line so that we can detect a trend of those plotted values toward perhaps either limit. So, this particular chart, the data is the percent of students who scored proficient or higher on the Ohio third grade reading state tests from spring 2004 through 2015. 0:09:06.8 John Dues: So, I've labeled sort of some of those key parts of the chart. So, just kind of call those out. Again, the red lines are the lower and upper natural process limits, sort of bound where you'd expect the data to be in a stable system. 0:09:21.1 Andrew Stotz: And those are 1, 2, 3 standard deviations or what? 0:09:28.1 John Dues: Well, this particular chart, it's what I call a process behavior chart. So it's actually, it's not standard deviation. It's based on a measure of dispersion called the moving range. And then there's a formula that smarter people than me figured out sort of how to use that moving range to set the red lines. But the important thing to know about the limits is that they're set empirically. And that just means that they're based on the data. And so they are where they are, not where I want them to be necessarily. I don't get to choose where they are, how wide they are, where they're placed numerically is based on the data itself. And then that green center line for this particular chart is the average of all the blue dots. And then the blue dots is each year of, again, testing data. 0:10:19.4 Andrew Stotz: 2004 to 2015 as the x-axis, yep. 0:10:27.0 John Dues: Yeah. So, you have a decade and a half or so, or sorry, a decade plus of data here. So, a good amount of data. So, you can kind of see how things are performing over time on this third grade reading test. And so the purpose of the chart, like we talked about, is to separate those two flavors of variation, the routine and the exceptional. And this chart is a really great example of just natural or routine variation. So, I'm looking for patterns in the data, like a single data point that would be outside the end of those red process limits. And you don't see that. The results for these years instead are just bouncing around an average of about 78.5%. Now there's some years where it's a little higher than that and some years where it's a little lower. But the point is none of those increases and decreases are meaningful. There's only that natural variation present. But the problem is, in the typical data analysis method, what I call the old way, the simple sort of limited comparison, is that a leader will rely on comparisons between the current figure and some previous value. 0:11:48.9 John Dues: And probably the most common and why I chose this data, at least in my world, is a leader will compare last year's test scores and this year's test scores. That's very, very common. But the problem is, again, that what I'm calling a limited comparison, the comparison between two years of data, it doesn't take natural variation into account. So, what happens is we try to ascribe meaning to those increases or decreases between data points when in reality there's often no difference to be found. And I have a really great example of this. Let me switch my screen here. So, there's a lot of information here, but it's pretty simple to understand. So, this is a snapshot from 2017/2018 state test results. And so this is a document that was published by our Department of Education here in Ohio back during those school years. And the thing is, it may be eight or so years old, but it's as relevant today as when it was published eight years ago. We're still making the same sort of mistakes. So, we're basically, when we look at the data in this chart, we're basically being led to believe that there's been this meaningful decline in performance in third grade ELA. 0:13:16.4 John Dues: That's what's signified by that red arrow in the first row of the table. So, you have the ELA data says that in '16/'17, 63.8% of our third graders were proficient. And in the following year, 61.2% were proficient. And there's this red down arrow to say, oh, things got worse this school year, at least when it was published. But then if you look at the blue box, the text for those that have video, in the text it says we're not supposed to worry because, "third grade saw decreases this year, but has maintained higher proficiency than two years ago." So. Then you start to think, well, which is it? Should I be worried about my third grade ELA state test scores because of the most recent decrease, you know, as of when this was published? Or should I not worry because the scores are better than they were two years prior to that? 0:14:21.7 Andrew Stotz: And that depends what side of the argument you're on. 0:14:24.4 John Dues: Depends what side of the argument you're on. What story do you want to tell with this data, right? 0:14:30.3 Andrew Stotz: So, it's bad enough to be potentially misled by this probably common variation, but then to have both sides of an argument be misled at the same time. 0:14:41.0 John Dues: Right, yeah. Ultimately it seems like what they're trying to do is show improvement because you have this big headline up here that says, Ohio students continue to show improved achievement in academic content area. 0:14:55.2 Andrew Stotz: Yay! 0:14:58.5 John Dues: But there's a way to actually answer these questions definitively using this method, right? And so what I did was I took the data from the three years of the state testing for third grade ELA from this state education department publication, and I just plotted it on a process behavior chart. And then I continued plotting it for the more recent data that's happened since this, because three data points isn't a lot, so I kept plotting it. And so now we have, going all the way back to the first year of data in this state testing document, we have 2015/2016 data, and of course now we have data all the way up through the end of the last school year, 2024/2025. So, we have nine data points. So I plotted it, right? It looks like this. So, here's those same data as the first three data points, spring 2016, spring 2017, spring 2018. 0:15:58.3 John Dues: That's from the table from the previous slide. And then I've continued plotting things for, you know, spring of 2018, '19, '21, '22, '23, '24, and '25. So, now we have nine years of data. And what we can see is, just like what I would have predicted, even if I had only had those three years to work with that were from the state testing document and not the more recent data, but there's no evidence of improvement. It's definitive. And so you see these nine data points. They're just simply bouncing around this average of 61%. That's what the green line shows. It's almost perfectly balanced, in fact. So, three of the points are actually below the average. One point is almost right on the line, the average line. And then there's five points above. And if you follow it from point to point, it increases, then decreases, then increases, then decreases, then increases very slightly for a couple or three or four years in a row. Right? But there's no signals or patterns in this data to indicate any changes of significance. Right? So claims like, you know, yeah, we've declined in this most recent year from that testing document or, oh, we shouldn't worry too much because it's better than two years ago. All of that is nonsense. 0:17:24.6 Andrew Stotz: So, the title should have been nine years of no improvement. 0:17:29.7 John Dues: Nine years of no improvement. Nine years of stable data. And the thing is, a lot of data looks just like the state testing data over time. Not only in education, but in other things. And how I've heard this described by people that use this methodology is that, claims of improvement are often nothing more than writing fiction. And I think that's a very good description for what we see here. And the thing is, is like, I'm not trying to throw the person that wrote that document under the bus. All I'm saying is that there's a better way to be looking at data like this, a way that makes more sense. 0:18:24.9 Andrew Stotz: It made me think of the Mark Twain quote, rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated. 0:18:39.9 John Dues: Give me one second here. My screen switched on me. There we go. Okay. So, when I think about this data, there's no real decline in performance, there's no real increase in performance. It's just stable performance. I think the key for leaders, systems leaders especially, is that this system, the way we would describe it is it's producing predictable results, and it's performing as consistently as it is capable. And so it's a waste of time to explain the natural variation in a stable system. Because what people would say is that there's no simple single root cause for this noise. 0:19:24.5 Andrew Stotz: And I think it's even better way of saying it. It's not a waste of time, it's a waste of your career. 0:19:32.6 John Dues: That'd be a very apt way of describing this. 0:19:36.0 Andrew Stotz: It kind of goes back to the point that Dr. Deming said, which was that, a manager could spend his life putting out fires and never improve the system. And every little thing above and below was a little, little mini emergency or a response was made every year because of the under or over, you'd just spend, you know, it would just be whack-a-mole. 0:20:01.9 John Dues: Yeah. But I think the thing for people to understand is I'm saying this system is performing as capable as it is, or as the performances is what this particular system is capable of. But that doesn't mean just because it's stable and predictable, like this one is, you know, it's up above 61% one year, and then it's down below it a little bit or right on the line. That doesn't mean that stable means acceptable. It doesn't mean stable is satisfactory. 0:20:37.1 Andrew Stotz: I'm thinking that this is neutral, you know, it's an observation rather than a judgment. 0:20:42.5 John Dues: Yeah. It's just what is. It's the process is producing what you would expect it to produce because it's stable and predictable. 0:20:49.8 Andrew Stotz: I want to just mention that my mind's wandering because I know that you help people with these types of charts. And when I was working with a hospital here in Thailand, they had a great room that they set up that was all blacked out and it was full of these great computer screens and guys in their technicians, like 10 of them in this room. But the room was dead silent, blacked out 100%. And they were radiologists and all the x-rays, MRIs, and everything that were being done on the machines outside were coming into them and then they were making their judgments on it. And then they would submit that and then the doctors would very quickly get a read on that. And I was just thinking, imagine being a person that just all day long looking at these types of charts. Like just any system can be described by the... And then what's your judgment on this? Yep, common cause. That's it. 0:21:50.9 John Dues: Yeah. And I think it obviously doesn't mean that there isn't work to be done. Like in this case, even though it's stable and predictable, so if I was putting a bet down on what the results are for spring 2026, at the end of this school year, I'd put my money somewhere between, let's call it 55% and 65%. And I'd be right almost every single time, I think, as long as nothing changes. But that doesn't mean, like I said, it doesn't mean there's not work to be done because when you look at this, this means that about 60% of third graders are proficient in any given school year on this Ohio third grade state test, which means that two in five students are not reading proficiently. So, the improvement roadmap, there has to be some fundamental changes to how we do third grade reading instruction, curriculum, assessment. Something fundamental has to change if we want to get a different set of results. 0:22:54.8 Andrew Stotz: And one of the things that I've kind of come to believe in my life, right or wrong, I'm not exactly sure, but it's like having traveled to so many countries and seen so many places, I kind of feel like people get what they demand. Like the population of a country, if they don't demand certain behavior from politicians, they don't get it. And so on the one hand, this is a neutral thing, but I think you can also make a judgment that the population of Ohio is not in a continuous uproar to see this change. 0:23:39.0 John Dues: Yeah. Well, I would say very few people even have this picture in their head, whether it's educators or the general public, because every time we get one of these state testing reports, it usually has only two or three years of data. So no one even remembers what happened. 0:24:01.9 Andrew Stotz: I agree that they don't have clarity, real good clarity like you're bringing us here. They have an understanding of what's happening generally. And this is what, so the reason why I'm mentioning that is because part of the benefit of trying to understand the state of a system is to understand that the level of change or work or new thinking that has to go into saying, modifying, let's just say that the population was in an uproar and they decided that they wanted to get to 90% proficiency from 60%. The level of rethinking is such a huge thing. And I think what this chart tells me is like, that's kind of what's set in stone. And in order to move beyond what's set in stone, there is a whole lot of work and a whole lot of new thinking that has to go into that. And it must be continuous. And that's part of the constancy of purpose. And you do it for three years and then a new guy comes in and he changes it. And then next thing you know, it's not sustained. 0:25:17.4 John Dues: Yeah. I mean, yes, you'd have to do something significant and then you'd have to stick with it. That constancy of purpose phrase is right on because you'd have to, first you'd have to develop the right plan and then you'd want to test it. But then once you started seeing some evidence of improvement, you'd have to stick with that plan for a decade or more to see those types of results. And that's really hard when the political will shifts, the focus shifts, you have a pandemic, whatever the thing is, you have less money for school, whatever that thing is or any combination of that, it makes it very challenging to sustain. 0:25:57.8 Andrew Stotz: And the reason why I'm raising this point is because it just kind of really hits me that take away Ohio, take away education, take away all of those things and just produce a control chart on any process in any business, in any school, and you're gonna see the current state. 0:26:17.3 John Dues: Yep, absolutely. Yeah. You can use this in any setting, any data that occurs over time, you could use this methodology. 0:26:24.8 Andrew Stotz: And one of the questions I have in my mind as I was thinking is like, why change it? The level of effort required to sustainably change that is just incredible. And you could argue that, okay, there's companies that build a competitive advantage by saying, that's not the status quo that we want to exist in and therefore we're gonna create a whole new business built around something different that produces a result that's considerably better than that. But it happens for sure, but we're much more likely in our lives if we were to see that to just let it be. 0:27:03.6 John Dues: Yeah. Yeah. And when you get it down, when you sort of zero in and get down to the sort of local level, there are schools that sort of performed in this sort of general fashion that made changes at the building level and then got significantly different results. So, it becomes a little easier. It's not easy, but it becomes easier when you're talking about a single school building and coordinating the efforts there versus trying to do that across all the school buildings. 0:27:32.9 Andrew Stotz: And I think this is what, when Dr. Deming talks about leadership, this is what he's talking about. 0:27:39.1 John Dues: Yep. Yep. And I think, you know, the good thing is here, if this is resonating with you, whether you're a school leader or the leader of some other type of organization, you know, you've probably struggled to interpret your most important data. So, before I discovered this method, I didn't really have a method per se. I'd put numbers in a table and then try to look at them and try to sort of ascertain what was happening on. And so I think it's, you know, if you've never heard of this, it's totally fine. Most of us were never taught how to understand variation in our data. But I think there's two sort of big ideas I would take from this as we've talked about this. The first is just taking natural variation into account. Just meaning plot your data over time, plot your dots, and look at how it's moving up and down over time. So, that's the first big idea, this idea of natural variation. Things are going to move up and down just naturally, no matter what's happening, even if nothing of significance has occurred. 0:28:47.6 John Dues: And then big idea two is that you can use this chart, this process behavior chart methodology to differentiate between those two types of variation that I talked about, the routine or natural variation, and then the exceptional variation. And then once you do that, you're gonna get some very powerful insights into what your data looks like, because people are gonna say, oh, I know why that happened. I know why that looks like that. Now that I see it like this, I have an understanding for why the patterns look like they do. And then you can start to turn that sort of type of analysis into better outcomes. And that's really the point of doing this is that you, you know when to react, when not to react, you are making sound decisions based on a logic, a logical model, a logical data model. And the best part is it's very simple. Like I said, a fourth grader can do the math required to create the chart. And I've seen kids as young as five or six interpreting the data in a chart. So, that means that we can all do it for sure. It's not actually that difficult. 0:30:00.6 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. And I was just thinking of Newton's law of inertia, meaning an object stays at rest until acted on by an outside force. 0:30:12.7 John Dues: Yeah. 0:30:13.8 Andrew Stotz: And I think what you're showing is the state of inertia. 0:30:18.5 John Dues: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The state of inertia. And I think it's just, you know, you don't know what you don't know. But once you see this and, I did some of the figuring this out on my own reading about it, listening to other people talk about it, but I talk to a lot of people and got a lot of guidance. So if this has piqued your interest, my suggestion is reach out to somebody that has done this before, at least at the start. Because there are a lot of, you know, while I am saying you can create a chart with fourth grade math and I've seen kindergartners analyze the charts, there is some learning, there is some technicality to it. And so I think if you have a coach, even better because you're gonna learn it so much faster and be able to sort of turn that learning into results so much faster. 0:31:07.0 Andrew Stotz: And maybe the starting point is trying to figure out of all the different measures that I've got in my business, in my school, in my life, what's one that I get regularly? And I like data that comes out more than annual because then it's just such a long process. So if I have daily data, weekly, monthly, you know, those types of data points, then from that, you know, and what's one thing in your life that would be a data point that you'd like to look at? And I would even argue the first step is just to start collecting it into, let's say, an Excel file and just collect that raw data. And you can make a chart of that raw data. And the benefit of the process, you know, control chart and the process chart is that what you're seeing is, you know, tools within that chart to help you interpret. But even if you just start by figuring out what data point you wanna look at, start collecting it, do a month or two of getting that data, and then you can start saying, okay, now I'm gonna apply these tools, nothing wrong with that. 0:32:21.2 John Dues: Yeah. And you wanna show it to people, like whether that's teachers or students, you wanna show them the data that you're collecting because they're gonna be a part of that improvement process, no matter what type of data that you're looking at, at least in schools, you're always gonna want the front line people to be a part of that process. 0:32:39.4 Andrew Stotz: And the way I did that in my area of research when I was an analyst and I had a research, was I wanted to see the data of the output of our research operation. How much did we produce? I didn't have a strong opinion as to whether we should produce more or less or whatever. I just wanted to understand them. And so I started plotting that data on a weekly basis, and I labeled it pretty well. And then I just put it up on the wall, and I didn't talk about it. And I put it up, and people looked at it, and I didn't go and explain it, and I didn't put control limits or anything like that. I just put the data up. And I remember a Thai lady that worked for me came to me, and she said, I figured you out. And I was like, what are you talking about? And she said, I was out to lunch with a friend of mine, and she asked me, how many reports do you publish a month? And she said, my employee said, I publish six reports in a month. And my friend said, what? 0:33:45.4 Andrew Stotz: And she said, how many do you do? She said, I only do two in a month. And she said, what are Andrew's targets for you? My God, to get six reports. And then my employee said to her, he doesn't have any target for me. And then that employee of mine came back to see me after that lunch, and she said, I get it. You just put it up on the wall, and it raised the awareness for all of us, and we all looked at it, and then it influenced the way we thought about our job without you telling me, get four or six or two. And so sometimes, and I did that exact same thing when I worked at Pepsi when I was in 1989 when I joined Pepsi in the factory in Buena Park in particular, where I would put up on the wall, here's everybody's error rates from last night. And I would post that, and then the employees would just look at it and go, that's wrong. Okay. Fine, great, tell me. Let's look at the data. 0:34:44.8 Andrew Stotz: And I kept all the underlying data that was manual in my hands in stacks, and then they would go, oh, okay, so I did get that wrong. Let me fix that. And then I fixed it and put it back up, but it didn't look much prettier after I fixed it. And then all of a sudden, people started looking at it, and then they started having new information they never had. And I hadn't studied with Dr. Deming by that time, so I didn't even understand anything to do with the chart, but just putting up the chart without any major commentary is fascinating. 0:35:12.9 John Dues: Yeah. It starts those conversations, starts getting people sort of more involved, more engaged with the work. Yeah, I think those are all really smart moves that we often don't do. 0:35:25.2 Andrew Stotz: And I think that was why my boss suggested I go to a Deming seminar, because he saw me starting to do that, and then he had heard about Deming and knew a little bit, and then he was like, yeah, this guy could be suited for that. 0:35:36.6 John Dues: Yeah. It sounds like it was fate or something like that. 0:35:41.6 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. Definitely. So, I'm going to wrap up just by saying that, for the listeners and the viewers out there, I think a big takeaway is figure out that one data point, just one. You don't need five, just one that comes out consistently, daily, weekly, monthly, you know, something that's relatively regular, and then start collecting that data. Write it down on a, you know, I do have times that I just write it down on a manual chart, in my notebook. Write it down there. You don't even need Excel. Just start collecting that data and thinking about the collection of the data, what time of the day you get it or what time of the week or what time of the month, and then start collecting it. Then the second stage is start to, you know, obviously, if you can go to an expert, someone like John or others, reach out to them, LinkedIn or other place, you know, and say, hey, I've got this data. Can you help me? And then they can easily do the calculations and then send you back the Excel file and say, here it is with all the calculations, which you did to me on one of mine, and that was great. And then get that help, and then start to move yourself slowly into the process because I think one of the things that I take away from it is that this really is the present, and it is an accurate representation of what the system is capable of. 0:37:10.2 John Dues: That's right. Yeah. 0:37:10.8 Andrew Stotz: And if you don't understand that, then you're just going to be beating your head against the wall. So, anything you would add? 0:37:18.9 John Dues: No, just beat your head against the wall and you make stuff up about what is happening. That's often what happens. Yeah. 0:37:27.0 Andrew Stotz: Then you become AI. You're hallucinating. 0:37:30.1 John Dues: Yes. 0:37:31.0 Andrew Stotz: Well, John, on behalf of everyone at the Deming Institute, I want to thank you again for this discussion. And for listeners, remember to go to deming.org to continue your journey. And you can find John's book, Win-Win: W. Edwards Deming, The System of Profound Knowledge, and the Science of Improving Schools, on amazon.com. This is your host, Andrew Stotz, and I'll leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Dr. Deming, and that is that people are entitled to joy in work.

In this engaging discussion, Andy Novins, a real estate practitioner and former women's apparel company co-owner, reveals how he applies Deming principles to his niche farming practice. He shares how control charts help him track market shifts and manage client expectations effectively. Andy emphasizes the importance of customer delight policies and the value of niche differentiation in real estate. His insights highlight how strategic thinking and continuous improvement can lead to a competitive advantage in a challenging market.

Join Bill Scherkenbach, a devoted protégé of W. Edwards Deming, as he shares rare stories and insights from his 50-year journey with the legendary thinker. Discover the fascinating letter of endorsement from Deming and reminisce about memorable dinners with the Toyoda family. Bill discusses the critical importance of management in quality and explains Deming's theories on purpose-driven data collection. With anecdotes about fun times at Ford and candid debates, this conversation captures the heart and humor of Deming's legacy.

William Scherkenbach, a longtime student and colleague of W. Edwards Deming, offers a fascinating glimpse into studying under the legendary figure. He shares personal stories of their late-night discussions and Deming's unique teaching style, combining statistics with storytelling. Scherkenbach reflects on implementing Deming's principles at Ford and GM, highlighting challenges and transformative changes. As he reenters the arena to share these teachings, his passion for continual improvement and the impact of Deming's philosophy shines brightly.

What if you could tackle a persistent problem without guesswork? In Part 10 of the Path to Improvement series, John Dues and Andrew Stotz discuss how John's team uses Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycles to calm a chaotic process with precision. Discover how to shift from blame to solutions by leveraging data and Deming thinking. You'll also find out where the team stands on their path to reducing chronic absenteeism in their schools. Listen now! #EducationLeadership #ContinuousImprovement #SystemsThinking #DemingInEducation TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.2 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is mapping the process, part two. John, take it away. 0:00:23.5 John Dues: Hey, Andrew. It's good to be back. Yeah, we've now been talking about our efforts to improve chronic absenteeism for several episodes. And we've talked about two Plan-Do-Study-Act or PDSA cycles focused on where we were working with specific students and their families regarding obstacles to getting to school. And then we shifted gears, and we started running this PDSA cycle three that we talked about last time. And just as a refresher for listeners, the objective of PDSA three is to create a process map, basically. And the goal for the process map is to standardize our attendance intervention system. And I think one of the things that comes to mind when you sort of work on process maps or on important processes is this quote from Dr. Deming. He said, If you can't describe what you're doing as a process, you don't know what you're doing, which is pretty convicting when you really think about it. I think a lot of people initially will say, No, no, no, I know exactly what our process is. And then you say, Well, write it down, map it. And then it becomes much more apparent that most people most of the time have a very rough version in their head that they can't translate into an actual written process. 0:01:44.8 Andrew Stotz: And I'm curious why that is, because on the one hand, when I've done mapping a process, you end up with, Okay, but then there's this exception, and then there's this. And oh, yeah, but don't forget that. So there's like all these intricacies. That's one reason. And then there's another reason is why is that someone's tunnel vision on I know the process because I know the three parts of the process that I'm working with. Why do you think it's hard for people to understand the whole process? 0:02:11.9 John Dues: Well, I think that first reason is probably the biggest reason where there's when they actually start mapping it, there's all these things that they initially left out. And I think as soon as an organization gets to a certain number of employees and has a certain amount of complexity, or you have to add a person that's now going to do part of what you previously did because your role changed or something shifted, needs change, or whatever in the environment. And you have to bring them in. You realize pretty quickly that you can't rely on that stuff that lived in your head anymore. So I think it's a combination of all those things for why this becomes so important. And the other reason I mean, the reason you want to do this is so that there's a starting place, a standard place where people are working from so that whatever it is that the focus is that it can be improved. It's hard to do that when there's no set process to start with. 0:03:08.5 John Dues: Let me. I'll share my screen and just kind of as a refresher, take a look at some of that data that we've talked about so far on this chronic absenteeism front. So, you'll remember that we have this long range goal to improve chronic absenteeism. We've kind of talked about where we are now, where we want to be. So where we are now is in that sort of 40 to 50 % range in terms of chronic absenteeism. We want to be down in under 5%. We have eight years of data going back to the 16-17 school year. And the other thing we've talked about on the data front is that really we have this pre-pandemic world and this post-pandemic world when it comes to chronic absenteeism. For anybody that's watching, you can clearly see this on the process behavior chart or control chart that's on the screen where prior to COVID, we're sort of humming along around 25% chronic absenteeism, which is still high. But now, since COVID, we've since the pandemic, we've skyrocketed. So there's this clear, sort of, new reality, new system for schools like ours that... 0:04:23.7 Andrew Stotz: And can you, just for someone that may be just popping in and hearing this, can you just describe what is chronic absenteeism rate? 0:04:31.9 John Dues: Yes, chronic absenteeism is a standard federally defined level of absenteeism where kids are called chronically absent once they've missed 10% or more of the school year. So the percent of kids that are chronically absent is what's being displayed. 0:04:50.5 Andrew Stotz: So if a school has 100 kids, this chart is saying that 50% of them are chronically absent? 0:04:58.9 John Dues: Yes. Yep. 0:05:00.5 Andrew Stotz: Okay. Yep. 0:05:01.1 John Dues: And that's not since the pandemic happened. That's not atypical, especially for schools that serve a high population of students that are economically disadvantaged, basically, unfortunately. So that's the goal, sort of cut it by a significant amount, 40 to 50% down to less than 5%. So that's the goal. And we've looked at the... Last time we looked at sort of the processes that are currently in place. So just as a quick refresher, United Schools, where I work, is a small urban public charter school system. We have four campuses, and there's people from each of the campuses on this attendance improvement team. And what we've been doing lately is sort of mapping out the process that each campus is using. Each campus has their own little process for intervening with kids that are chronically absent. They have different people that are doing different parts of that process. And so we started with just saying, what is it that your process looks like? 0:06:09.3 John Dues: And we looked at a couple of those maps. So this first map is from one of the campuses. It's pretty simple. There's just one or two people involved. The way they represented it initially is just maybe 10 or 15 steps that they're going through to sort of identify who's having attendance issues, sending letters to families, contacting families, that type of thing. But you can see, initially, at least as they mapped it, it's a pretty simple process. And then when we looked at one of our other campuses and they mapped theirs out, it was a slightly more in-depth process. There's sort of more detail. There are more people involved in the process. I'd say there's probably a little more sophistication to sort of when and how they were intervening with parents. And a lot of the intervening is just sort of the compliance requirements. When a kid reaches a certain number of missed hours, we're required to send them a letter to their parents, for example. So a lot of the process currently focuses on sort of the legal requirements when it comes to absenteeism in Ohio's law. But these are two campuses that are about three miles apart, and you can see, even though they're following the same legal sort of requirements from the state, they have very different processes for how that work is being done. 0:07:38.9 Andrew Stotz: Or could you also say that this particular campus, the people involved may have a much deeper understanding of it or a desire to map it out with more detail? Or do you think it's significantly different? 0:07:52.3 John Dues: I think that this second one that looks like it has more steps, I think they have a person that's more of their sort of 1.0 FTEs, like more of their 1.0 FTE is focused on just attendance, whereas it's sort of like a divided responsibility. 0:08:09.7 Andrew Stotz: Wait, what's a 1.0 FTE? 0:08:12.1 John Dues: Like one full-time equivalent person. So a big part of the person's job is this attendance process. So they know this process pretty deeply. So they were able to map it in more detail, basically. So that was interesting. So part of this PDSA cycle three was, so the plan was really had sort of two steps. One, create a standardized process map for the system as a whole that everybody's going to work from. And then, once that's drafted, gather some feedback, both quantitative and qualitative feedback from our network leadership team. So that was the Plan. The Do was just make the map and then gather the input. So that's what's been happening of late with this team. But we can see pretty quickly what they did. And it certainly does help to have an improvement advisor, someone with a deep knowledge of the Deming philosophy and mapping processes, because he's the one at the meetings. He's the one sort of taking everything that the team is telling him, the process maps that the campus teams have done. And then he's putting it all together based at their input. And their input is certainly super important, but he's also very talented at building processes that are coherent and can be understood by many across our system. 0:09:40.3 John Dues: And so what he ended up doing using their input is he's now got a process map that includes not just the nuts and bolts like, okay, the kid has an attendance problem, and we have to send letters and do things like that. He's going back and created a process map that includes four different stages. So this first stage that if you're viewing this part of the process map is just for onboarding, which was completely missing from all of the campus maps. It wasn't on the... So the idea here is the very first thing, the beginning of this process is a new student enrolls. And as soon as they enroll, a family enrolls, there's going to be a number of things that happen, mostly on the educational side, like what is good attendance? So right from the get-go, one of the things they're going to do is they have this welcome folder that a family gets when they come for their tour or their orientation. And right in that welcome folder is going to be our attendance framework that defines what good attendance is and when, where it really starts to become an issue and impacts a kid's education. So this whole first process map, this whole first stage is about onboarding and educating the family and the student about what good attendance is, which was, again, completely missing from the process before. 0:11:10.2 John Dues: The second stage is attendance monitoring. So, the kid's been onboarded, school has started, and now there's a process to monitor every student's attendance, whether they have a problem or not. And this monitoring system is going to be standardized so that different notifications are being sent home to families, different sort of letters, letting them know when things are becoming a problem. So again, this whole process is about monitoring attendance after providing some of that education. And then, if through that monitoring, it becomes apparent that the student needs additional intervention, the next stage is sort of that attendance intervention plan. So this is where the full map before for each campus just focused on this part. And this is obviously, if you look at this compared to the campus maps, this is much more in detail about what's happening. I'd say, the other thing that's happening here is there's problem-solving with the family. So instead of just saying, warning, your kid has gotten to this number of missed hours, and you send that home in a letter, once that happens, you can see that there's actually Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles being run with the family and the student that are off track from attendance perspective and some individual problem solving is happening. 0:12:52.3 John Dues: See, we run three PDSA cycles to try to get them back on track. So that's a brand new component to this attendance system. And then from there, for some kids, if we get them back on track, then we don't have to take any further action. But for other students, there are some, again, some legal requirements. And so the last stage of that process is if we do have to file official truancy charges, sort of like what, or let the state know that the student is now truant, there's some steps that we take to make that filing. But that's far after many, many steps have been taken to educate, to run PDSA cycles with individual kids that are off track, to try to get the family and sort of the knowledge they need to understand, like how to keep their student on track when they're in school. So, there's a good chance that this will change pretty quickly, this process map, it's a good one, I think, having gone through it, it's a solid process, but it'll, as soon as it like gets battle tested, there's going to be updates. Now, that's not say you're going to change things willy nilly, but what you are going to do is you're going to learn what's working, what's not, you sort of have this hypothesis, but at least now, since everybody's working from the standard process, we can make improvements that then can go out to the entire system. 0:14:32.9 Andrew Stotz: Great. I'm curious, what is the definition of truancy these days? When I was in school, there was trouble in River City and it was trouble with a capital T and that rhyme with P and that stands for pool. So you had the trouble of all the kids hanging out at the pool place, but I'm just curious what's going on. What is the definition of truancy these days? 0:15:01.3 John Dues: Yeah, it's when they, I mean, students have to have missed a certain number of hours of instruction. And now instead of attendance being measured in days, there's basically a threshold that you hit in terms of numbers of hours missed that then you legally have to file truancy. 0:15:24.4 Andrew Stotz: But what does truancy mean? 0:15:27.3 John Dues: Truancy just means that you've missed a lot of school, basically. 0:15:31.1 Andrew Stotz: Okay. 0:15:31.4 John Dues: Yeah. Yeah. And in terms of reasons, when we did those first PDSAs, not all those kids were necessarily truant, but they all had serious absenteeism issues. I think what we talked about was that we found that there were many different issues that were sort of at the root of that, which is part of the challenge here is we have high numbers of chronic absenteeism and then lots of different reasons for that. And so how do you problem solve with all those different folks to help get them back on track? That's part of the challenge. For sure, part of the challenge. But so where the team is at now, so they've completed this third PDSA cycle. So the Do was to make the process map and then get the input from the leadership team. And now they're doing the Study and the Act. So the Study, one of the things I talked about was that the initial feedback from folks that aren't a part of the team was more education needed to happen during that onboarding process. 0:16:39.9 John Dues: So that was sort of like a blind spot before. Not that people didn't talk about it, but now it's systematized. Here's the piece of paper, the attendance framework you're going to give them. There's an orientation session on attendance. There's a session with students during their orientation about what's good attendance and how many days does that equate to in terms of missing school throughout the year, that types of things. Another big thing in the study was more personal touches throughout the process and not just sort of those notifications that I talked about, like the attendance warning letters. The group sort of talked about, while some of these letters are required, whether they're that effective or not is definitely in question. 0:17:25.1 John Dues: Another thing is we have a role at each campus that's called Dean of Family and Community Engagement. And so something like attendance is the responsibility of everybody in the school. But if there's a point person at each campus, it's that Dean of Family and Community Engagement. And so there's some worry about, like when I go back to this process, it's the Dean of Family and Community Engagement or DFCE, they're sort of the point person running these PDSAs and the PDSAs can be time intensive. So one of the concerns is, will they be able to sort of handle the workload that sort of comes with this new process? And I think that's definitely an open question, but at least it's on the radar. It's not like no one is saying, here's the process, go figure out how to make this work. That would be a bad way to do it. There's a recognition that we think we need to do some of this problem solving with individual cases, but there's also this recognition that there's going to be a time constraint for the DFCEs. And then another big X factor that was a part of this study write-up was transportation. Because we've talked about how bad transportation, yellow school buses have been in Columbus this year. We've had a lot of problems. And so what's that look like next year, and how does this factor in? When we did those interviews with students and families, it wasn't the primary reason for all families, but I think in about 50% of the families, transportation had some role in the attendance issues. So these are things that are on folks' minds as they're working through this. 0:19:06.5 Andrew Stotz: That's a lot of progress on this. 0:19:09.3 John Dues: Yeah, a lot of progress, I think. And you get questions like, is it worth all the time to do this? And it's like, is this improving anything? And if you're looking at the outcome, probably not yet. But now that there's this standardized process, I think we can actually make some inroads on this chronic absenteeism process. It would be very hard to do in the absence of this standardization that we're going through and this input from the group to put more sort of resources towards this to get some expertise in terms of putting together a process instead of leaving it up to individual people that maybe don't have this skill set. 0:19:53.9 Andrew Stotz: You also recently posted on your LinkedIn about the idea of a system and results. If you don't even understand the system, how are you going to get the results that you want from the system? 0:20:05.8 John Dues: Exactly. If you don't understand what's causing the problem, if you don't have a whole systems view, you could put a process in place that actually makes things worse, may make things better in one area, but make them worse in another area. So yeah, this is complicated stuff when you're trying to make change in a complex system like a school system. 0:20:25.7 Andrew Stotz: Interesting. 0:20:26.2 John Dues: Yeah, the last step is just the Act. So they're deciding what to do. Are they going to adopt this? Are they going to adapt it or abandon the idea? So I think we're not going to abandon it because obviously we're moving forward with this new process map. And it's, I would call this adapt though. So we're going to adapt this process map into the system, but very high likelihood that there are going to be many adjustments to it as it gets put into action. As I was just saying, it's not adopt because if it was adopt, this thing, this process map would be sort of run through a number of cycles where it had been tested, the kinks had been worked out, and it's sort of going to be, this is the way. So what we're doing now is adapt. So we're going to make some improvements based on this initial feedback we got from the leadership team. Now we'll make some additional adjustments, especially next school year because the school year is over during the initial implementation. 0:21:29.8 John Dues: And the other sort of part of the Act was if you read the steps in this process map from start to finish. There are a lot of artifacts that go along with this that don't exist. So for example, this attendance slide deck for new student orientation. That's a part of the process. We probably don't want to leave that up to each individual group to create on their own because what is the content of that? And so that has to be created. So there are a number of things like that, that the improvement advisor for the project is going to take on either creating himself or he's going to strongly support the creation. So those are also standardized across the network. So you see, it's a lot of work. 0:22:20.4 Andrew Stotz: Yeah. 0:22:22.2 John Dues: So that would be where we pick up with, once students come back in August, and that's kind of leaving things off at the end of this school year. 0:22:31.6 Andrew Stotz: That's great. I was mentioning about this little jingle that I was talking about, and it comes from a 1957 movie called The Music Man. And he says, his line is, there's trouble in River City, and it starts with T, and that rhymes with P, and that stands for pool. And it's this guy, he's a con man, a hustler, who's gone to the citizens of a town in River City, Iowa, telling them that the corrupting influence is the pool table in the town that's going to keep the kids from going to school. And he wants to start like a marching band. But for those old-timers that seen that movie, they'll love that reference. And if you haven't seen it, go see The Music Man on... I don't know. It's hard to find things on Netflix these days like that, but maybe it's on YouTube. 0:23:27.9 John Dues: Very classic, just like that. 0:23:30.2 Andrew Stotz: But I remember listening to that when I was young, because my parents always had musicals. My sisters actually played musicals on the record player. So you always was hearing the songs of musicals. 0:23:43.8 John Dues: Well, it seems like the truancy thing is, that's not a new problem necessarily. 0:23:48.1 Andrew Stotz: Oh, yeah, that's for sure. That's for sure. Well, why don't we wrap it up there? And on behalf of everyone at the Deming Institute, I want to thank you again for this discussion. And for listeners, remember to go to deming.org to continue your journey. And you can find John's book, "Win-Win: W. Edwards Deming, the System of Profound Knowledge, and the Science of Improving Schools" on Amazon. This is your host, Andrew Stotz, and I'll leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Dr. Deming. "People are entitled to joy in work."

How can we improve attendance when every school has a different process? In this episode, John Dues continues his exploration of Deming's philosophy in action, focusing on chronic absenteeism. As part of their third PDSA cycle, John's team shifts from individual interventions to process standardization—mapping how each of their four campuses handles attendance interventions. The surprising discovery? Each school follows a different process, revealing hidden variation and inefficiencies. By visualizing these systems, the team is not only grasping the current condition but also setting the stage for a reliable, scalable, and effective process. This methodical approach highlights how understanding systems and reducing variation are key to meaningful improvement. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.1 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today, I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. The topic for today is Mapping the Process. John, take it away. 0:00:26.7 John Dues: Hey Andrew. It's good to be back. Yeah. For the folks that have been following along for the past several episodes we've been working towards defining this problem more narrowly in terms of this chronic absenteeism issue we've been talking about. And for the last few episodes we've been talking about how the team didn't have enough information to write that precise problem statement. And we took a look at gathering additional information by running a couple PDSA cycles in those first two cycles that we've discussed so far. We know we had zeroed in on a handful of students and ran PDSAs with them and their families about their obstacles getting to school. And then we left off talking about how we were going to shift gears in PDSA cycle three. And instead we were going to focus on standardizing our process. So creating a process map for how we intervene with kids with our attendance teams across the network. So that's what the team is currently working on. But just as a sort of quick reminder to folks, and especially if you're watching, we have this model that we've been working through, this four step improvement model where you set the challenge or direction, grasp the current condition, establish your next target condition, and experiment to overcome obstacles. 0:01:48.1 John Dues: And then like we've talked about several times, we're doing this with the team and that includes people working in the system, people with the authority to change or work on the system, and then at least one person with significant knowledge of the System of Profound Knowledge, like an SOPK coach. And we've been using this model that's on the screen to sort of symbolize or I guess visualize what those four steps look like. You're sort of marching up this mountain towards this challenge or direction. And we've also talked about this long range goal that we've had and we've taken a look at some data where we have our chronic absenteeism rate mapped out over the last eight years or so. We have this long range goal. So this is the direction of the challenge where we're trying to take our chronic absenteeism from above 50% down to 5%. We have the data going back to the 2016/17 school year. Then we also talked about how there's this, not surprisingly, there's this sort of pre-pandemic level of chronic absenteeism, which was again too high. It's not where we wanted it, but we have this major shift up where we've seen this significant jump in chronic absenteeism since the pandemic hit. 0:03:15.0 John Dues: So in those four years, 2020/21, 21/22, 22/23 and 23/24 we were up in the 51, 52, even up into the close to the 60% range in chronic absenteeism at the height of the pandemic. So for PDSA cycle three, really doing two things. So, and we're going to talk about this in the episode today. If you remember back way at the start of this series, we looked at something I called a system flowchart. So we'll kind of revisit that and then we're going to take a look at two process maps that were created by two of our school teams to sort of map their current process. And then we'll walk through, sort of we'll take that, we'll walk through what the plan is for this PDSA cycle three. So let's start by looking back at this system flowchart. I'll sort of reorient you to this. So we have up on the, and this is the current state. So up on the top we have the target system which is attendance. And then we have this aim that is sort of a three part aim. 0:04:42.7 John Dues: We want to define strong attendance for students and staff, make sure everybody's on the same page. We want to ensure that students, families and staff have a shared understanding of what it means to have strong attendance. And then we are working on improving and creating systems that identify and remove barriers to strong attendance for students and staff. And then over on the left hand side we have sort of inputs. So these are things that contribute or their conditions that impact our system. And then in the middle we have our core activities. So the things that are happening that impact attendance and then there's outputs, both negative and positive outputs that come out of this system. And then we get feedback from our customers, we do research on this feedback and then we make design if it's a new system or redesign if it's a current system. And some of these things, some of those contributing conditions are, Ohio has a set of transportation laws. You know, there's our school model and our the way we operate our school hours, our expectations regarding student attendance, our various intervention systems, neighborhood dynamics, how far our families live from school. 0:06:03.4 John Dues: These are all things that contribute to our sort of inputs into our system. And then we have these core activities. And remember, we could just zero in on attendance systems. But there are many other parts of our system that impact whether or not kids come to school. So for one, many of our families are always going to be new to our system. So for example, in our middle schools, where they start with sixth grade some number of those kids are going to be from our elementary schools. Some number of those kids are going to come from other neighborhood schools, but they're all going to be new to that middle school. So whether they're coming from our elementary school or not, you have to think about how is the student and family being onboarded to our system. Another thing we're looking at is school culture and trust. You know, how much trust is in there, in the school. Do they have a strong culture between teachers and families or teachers and students, or the principal and teachers? Then there's academic systems how engaging are classes, those types of things. 0:07:05.7 John Dues: Then we have the attendance intervention systems, which is obviously a core focus. We have health and wellness and changes around mindset since we went through the pandemic. And then finally the third sort of, or sorry, the third, not the third, but the sixth core activity that we talked about was transportation. So we've talked about lots of problems with our busing system this year. So that's another thing that has a big impact on attendance. And so what this group, again is working on the core activity is the attendance intervention systems. What's the process for that? But I had mentioned in an earlier episode that we have another group that's working on transportation and busing and how we can improve that. So the whole point of the system flowchart is there's many, many things that go into something like an attendance rate. And many of these things are very challenging. Some are largely out of our control, but much of it is largely in our control. And we're trying to pull the levers that we think are most important when it comes to student attendance. 0:08:09.2 Andrew Stotz: And just one thing on that, one of the things I just find so frustrating and it's part of this class I'm teaching tonight is how do we scale a business. And one of the ways that's critical to scaling is simplifying. And sometimes, like, when I look at all of this complexity, on the one hand, you're like, okay, well, that's our job, right? Our job is to manage complexity. And that's the reason why we don't have a thousand competitors coming in, because it's complex and it's difficult. And on the other hand, it's like the simplifier in me is like, how do we simplify this? You know, like, I'm just curious about how you see complexity versus simplification. And in particular, it may just be in this stage, you're just putting everything up there, and it's just overwhelming. Like, oh, my God, there's so much involved in just fixing one thing, you know? What are your thoughts on that? 0:09:11.5 John Dues: Yeah, that's, I mean, that's a really good question. It's, I mean, I think it is a complex system because there's so many moving parts. And I think part of the nature of a complex system versus something like a complicated system is that when you try to impact some part of the system that has these ripple effects into other parts of the system, many of which are unattended or unintended consequences. So, yeah, I mean, I think one thing we have working in our favor is very stable senior leadership. So we're pretty good at understanding how we all work. We have a pretty good historical knowledge of how our school system has worked over time. And we have a pretty good holistic view of all of this complexity. Not that we're all able to improve it all at once, but I think we have a pretty good grasp of what's going on. And even a team like this there we could move faster perhaps, but I think we're trying to be pretty deliberate about the changes that we're making. 0:10:24.7 John Dues: And we're also deliberate about the levers that we're trying to pull for improvement. And these things change over time. So even something like transportation, I mean, the reason that we're working on that now and that we've chosen to work on that now is because the transportation that we're getting from the district is so untenable. Whereas 15 years ago, when I was a principal in our system, while the busing wasn't perfect, it was pretty consistent. You know, most days it dropped off at about the same time. It picked the kids up at about the same time every day. And while it was nowhere near where you would want it to be overall, it wasn't my biggest pain point as a principal. Now kids are literally missing hours or buses aren't showing up at all. And so we have to figure out a way to make this work. And to your point this was a system when charter schools were set up in Ohio, is just basically like the district, the nearby district, which is usually a big urban district, is going to do the busing for charter schools. 0:11:35.5 John Dues: And there really wasn't any more thought to it than that and so from the district's perspective, they they have to manage a lot of complexity. They have their own schools, they're busing for charters, which there's about 15,000 kids in charter schools in Columbus. And then they're also busing for private schools. And the district itself still has a very large geographic footprint, even though the number of students that attend there are about half what it was 50 years ago. So they have very spread out buildings, some of which are far below capacity, but they still have students attending them. So they haven't shrunk that geographic footprint. So that's a challenge as well. And at a time when it's become very difficult to find bus drivers. So I don't take lightly, like the challenges that the district is facing in this, but we got to get kids to school as a... Just as a basic starting point to be being able to do school well. 0:12:31.8 Andrew Stotz: Okay, keep going. 0:12:33.8 John Dues: I mean, it's also a really good segue. We'll take a look at a couple of the process maps. So we have our four campuses. We have something different going on. So even though our four campuses are geographically pretty proximate to each other, they have four different processes going on with their attendance intervention system. So take a look at this first process map, which is pretty simple from start to finish. What is that? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. It's really nine steps and it really... 0:13:08.6 Andrew Stotz: And for the listeners out there that can't see it, he's got a process map, State Street. And what it shows is some circles and some squares and some tilted squares. I don't know what those are called. 0:13:23.5 John Dues: Yeah, I mean, it's just the circles are the start and end points. 0:13:26.9 Andrew Stotz: Okay. 0:13:27.8 John Dues: The squares are the steps in the process. And then the diamonds are, when there's a... Some decision has to be made in the process. 0:13:37.0 Andrew Stotz: Okay, great. 0:13:38.0 John Dues: So we're not going to go through all of these steps. But if you are watching this is a pretty simple process at one of our campuses, while there are multiple people sort of involved, it's also true that one person is driving a lot of this work. But the point is, especially for people that are watching, when you sort of walk through these 10 steps, you're going to see that this map is going to look very different and less complicated than the map at one of our other campuses. But the point is, especially if you can see things visually that you can tell just by looking at the two maps, there are two very different processes going on. And these two schools, this first one is actually an elementary school that feeds into the middle school. That is the map that we'll look at second, so this is the first process map. And then when we look at the second map, we can see very quickly, just visually speaking, there are far more steps, it's far more complicated. There's far more decision points. There's a lot more detail here, and there's a lot of interfacing between multiple people that all play a role in this particular process. 0:14:55.4 John Dues: And it's not that one is right and one is wrong. It's just that when you have these two campuses doing it differently, there very likely is inefficiencies. 0:15:06.8 Andrew Stotz: And are they mapping the same thing? And they... 0:15:10.6 John Dues: Yes, it's the same process. It's how they intervene as the state requires for kids that have some type of attendance issue. And there's different thresholds that mean different parts of the process kick in as a result. But they're operating within the same state process that you have to follow. But even so, you can see that they have a very different sort of illustration of what that process looks like. And if I had the other two campuses, we'd have four separate versions. And remember all these steps and you know, all these decision points. There's documents that exist. There's meetings that happen. There's agendas for those meetings. There's agendas for meeting with parents. There's letters that have to be mailed. And so you can imagine if everybody is creating separate forms, separate meeting agendas, keeping this information in different ways. There's probably a way to design this that's far more effective and efficient by pulling from the four different processes to create one process. And oh, by the way, if you do that, it makes training easier for anybody new that's going to take on some of the clerical roles or some of the interfacing with parents. 0:16:26.9 John Dues: And then if you have one process that you're working from, then you can also share best practices as they emerge as you're working. But if you have four variants, it's much harder to share that information. 0:16:43.4 Andrew Stotz: And you know, it's questionable whether this is a core function. It is an important process. Is it the core? 0:16:54.8 John Dues: Yeah, I mean, I would say it's a, I guess depending on how you define core. I mean, it's a required process. It's a process that the state requires and a lot of the sub steps are required components. Now, interestingly, this, the setup for this attendance intervention system came out of some legislation called Health...House Bill 410. And it's been in place for maybe five years or so, four or five years. And they're changing it right now. So there's new language. 0:17:30.2 Andrew Stotz: Just when we got it set. 0:17:32.2 John Dues: Just when we got it set. But we at least know the likely changes that are coming. So Ohio operates on a two year budget cycle. So in this new budget that will likely pass on. Well, it has to pass by June 30th. Right now there's language in there that changes this process for schools and actually gives schools way more leeway. So we'll sort of be ahead of the game because we're going to have our own process mapped and you know, we can remove some of those things that are a little more cumbersome on the school teams. And to your point, those things that were compliance related but didn't have really impact on improving attendance, we could just remove those now. We'll have some more freedom there. 0:18:13.8 Andrew Stotz: I mentioned about the core thing because there's a great book I read called Clockwork by Michael Michalowicz and he talks about identifying what is the core function in your business and then really focusing in on that. And it's interesting because one of the benefits of that is that if you don't do that, you can get caught up in every process like, and then all of a sudden it's just everything is seen as equal. 0:18:43.6 John Dues: Right. Yeah. 0:18:44.6 Andrew Stotz: Anyways, keep going. 0:18:45.9 John Dues: Yeah, it's one of those weird things and I'll stop sharing. Yeah, that was the last visual. But that's one of those things where like I said for the last five years or so these things have been required. And I think you'd be hard pressed to find a school system that would say these, the way things are outlined as requirements for schools to do on this front are not effective but people do them because they're required. And you know, I think with this updated language, we'll have some more flexibility to do this how we want to do it. 0:19:20.4 Andrew Stotz: And how does this, just to clarify how it fits into that mountain diagram, this is trying to assess or deal with the obstacle or is this the current state? I noticed that it said current state for the process map. But is the purpose of what you're... The original one you show. But is the purpose of what you're doing trying to overcome the, identify and overcome the obstacle? 0:19:46.8 John Dues: Well, I would say this is a part of grasping that current condition. You know, we did that early on in terms of that system flowchart, in terms of what the whole system looks like. And now what we're doing is learning about the processes at each individual school. Well, I'd say when you map out a process like this, and I think people would probably, my guess is, is that senior leaders would often say, well, no, we have a process and you know, everybody follows the same thing. And then if you actually mapped it like that, step by step, what you would see is tons of variation, tons of variation. 0:20:23.9 Andrew Stotz: So one of the benefits of that is it's not only, it's about facing the reality or understanding the true current state. Like everybody can say, no, no, no, we all know what the current situation is. No, we don't. 0:20:41.2 John Dues: No, you don't. And every time I sit with a team and make these process maps, we'll say, okay, what's the next step? And you know, maybe a couple people will pipe up and then someone inevitably goes, well, no, wait a second, that's not what we do. What we do next is X, Y or Z. I mean, it's... And that happens over and over and over again with this with this process just seems to be a part of it. It's not a bug. It's actually a feature of this mapping exercise. 0:21:08.5 Andrew Stotz: And many people try to solve these problems by just jumping in rather than taking the time to really, truly understand the current state. You know, what's the risk of the action taker? 0:21:22.7 John Dues: Well, yeah, I mean, I think what happens a lot of times is like when people don't really understand a process like this is they start blaming people for things that aren't going right. That's what typically happens. 0:21:35.8 Andrew Stotz: I want people to take responsibility around here. 0:21:38.3 John Dues: We have to hold people accountable, but you can't hold them accountable to a process that's unknown. Right. It's not well specified, but that's what typically happens. So, so yeah, so the objective for this PDSA cycle, so we're on this third cycle. So those first two were focused on talking to individual kids, interviewing with individual kids. And we said well let's actually look at our process for how we're intervening from a school perspective as a team at each of the schools and let's standardize that process. 0:22:13.1 John Dues: So that's what we're doing. We're sort of mapping it from start to finish, gathering feedback from key stakeholders as we sort of map a standardized process that works across all four schools. And really one of the things that we're doing right now is we're saying can we develop a process? And we have these four dimensions that we're looking for to sort of meet. One is functional, one is, is it reliable? Third, to your point about the business talk you're giving tonight is is it scalable? You know, does it work across the entire school and across the entire school system? And then is it effective? And we're basically, the attendance improvement team basically is going to put together the process and then they're going to put it in front of our senior leaders and we're going to rate sort of the process across those four dimensions and they've sort of predicted what they think is going to, how it's going to hold up when it's sort of tested by those senior leaders. 0:23:12.8 John Dues: So that's kind of what we're doing right now. So step one is mapping the four campuses and then we're going to map one standardized process, at least a rough draft. And again, so once that initial network wide or system wide map is created, we're going to put it in front of that senior leadership group. We're going to give them a brief survey, sort of a Likert scale across those four dimensions and see, see what they think basically. So that's our next step right now. 0:23:40.6 Andrew Stotz: Exciting, exciting. I want to tell a little story to wrap up my contribution here and that is after many years of living in Asia, I started to realize that everything's connected in Asia, people are connected. If you want to be mean to somebody, it's going to come back around to you. And if you want to push on somebody, it's going to come back around because everybody knows everybody. And I like to picture it like a circle. Let's just say a bunch of people in a circle facing the same direction. And then let's say they all put their right arm on the right shoulder of the man or woman in front of them. So now we have a circle that's connected in such a way. And if you think you're going to get something done by squeezing on the shoulder of the person in front of you, the problem you're going to face is that that's going to transmit all the way around the circle until all of a sudden you're going to be squeezed. And that is my visualization of the way influence works in Asia. Yeah, but I feel like it's the same type of thing when you just say, I want to hold people accountable and we need responsibility around here. 0:24:57.8 Andrew Stotz: What ends up happening is that the only choice that someone has is just to squeeze on the person in front of them. And when they do that, it just transmits a squeeze all the way around. It builds fear, it builds distrust and all of that. And so that. That was a visualization I was having when you were talking. 0:25:16.4 John Dues: Yeah, I mean, I think... And it can be convicting a little bit there. There's a Dr. Deming quote that I'll share to sort of wrap this. Before I do that, I think again, I go back to we... There are these unknown things about how to improve attendance. And so this PDSA, this plan, do study, act cycle, we're using one, again, was intervening with kids and trying to work with a handful of kids that had attendance issues and just see what works and what doesn't. We've shifted gears in this third cycle to something very different. But this is all part of one comprehensive effort by this team to put this new system in place. And all of these pieces of information are important, but this and this mapping, the process thing I think is a great... And I think maybe a lot of people wouldn't think about that as a PDSA to plan a new process, but you can absolutely use it in that way. But the Dr. Deming quote that I think of when I do process mapping is "if you can't describe what you're doing as a process, you don't know what you're doing." 0:26:21.7 John Dues: And I think that's true. Again, it's not to convict people, but I think often when we say, well, that's this thing is going wrong, we need to hold people accountable. And then you ask that person that's making that claim, well, what is the process for this thing? And they often can't tell you. Or they do, it's so vague that nobody could. 0:26:45.3 Andrew Stotz: Or they say, that's not my responsibility. My responsibility is to hold you accountable for getting the result. 0:26:51.4 John Dues: Right. Yeah. And, and, and many people, many organizations don't write these things down. You know, they don't write them down and share them with folks. So that's just some of these simple things are as part of the power making things exciting. 0:27:05.1 Andrew Stotz: Exciting. Well, yeah, how about we wrap it up there and so what are we going to get next time? 0:27:10.7 John Dues: Yeah, I think so. What we went through quickly here at the end was the plan for this PDSA cycle. So by the time we get back together, will have the process map for the system and we'll have had the feedback back and we'll be able to compare that to what the group predicted. 0:27:28.8 Andrew Stotz: So ladies and gentlemen, we're watching it in real time unfold the applications of Dr. Deming's principles. And isn't that what we want? You know, obviously we love theory and we love ideas, but we really need to be all thinking about how we apply these things. And so from my perspective, I'm really enjoying this series and I'm learning a lot. And as I mentioned before, I've been improving some of my thinking and some of my teaching in particular, based upon the discussions that we've had. So on behalf of everyone at the Deming Institute, I want to thank you again for this discussion and for listeners remember to go to deming.org to continue your journey. And also you can find John's book, Win Win: W. Edwards Deming the System of Profound Knowledge and the Science of Improving Schools on Amazon.com This is your host, Andrew Stotz. And I'll leave you with one of my favorite quotes from Dr. Deming. I know you've heard it before, but I'm going to say it again. Until we have joy. "People are entitled to joy in work."