Making Markets

In this quarter's recap, major indices saw significant downturns, with the S&P down over 8% and Nasdaq 12.5%. Unexpected tariff policies triggered market unpredictability, deeply affecting investor sentiment. The bond market also reacted sharply, raising concerns about corporate earnings and economic growth. The complex U.S.-China relationship and fears of capital flight add layers of uncertainty. Discussions highlight the Fed's balancing act between combating inflation and fostering growth in this tumultuous climate.

My guest today for the second time is Mark Dow. Mark is one of my favourite thinkers on Macro, and his experience at the IMF, the US Treasury, and Wall Street gives him a truly unique perspective for the current moment. As we went through one of the biggest market and policy upheavals of my career, I reached out to Mark to help us make sense of this situation. We recorded this episode on Thursday, the 10th of April, and talked about the general principle behind tariffs, the global trading system, the goals of President Trump, and the market reaction. Please enjoy this conversation with Mark Dow.For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE.-----Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenxEditing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).Show Notes(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best(00:00:07) Understanding Tariffs: Historical Context and Rationale(00:01:05) China's Role in Global Trade(00:01:54) Impact of Automation on Jobs(00:03:07) Trump's Trade Policies and Their Implications(00:04:20) Challenges with Current Tariff Approaches(00:05:37) Global Trade Imbalances and Misconceptions(00:06:07) Market Reactions and Economic Consequences(00:21:35) Political Shifts and Economic Policies(00:25:56) Trump's Economic Policies and Wage Stagnation(00:26:42) Tariffs and Their Impact on Small Businesses(00:27:20) Market Reactions and Economic Surprises(00:28:41) Equity and Credit Market Dynamics(00:30:59) China's Strategic Moves and Market Implications(00:33:49) The Fed's Role in Economic Stability(00:39:00) Global Trade Relations and Soft Power(00:49:08) Negotiating with Trump: Strategies and Challenges Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Barry Ritholtz, the founder and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, shares insights as a renowned commentator, known as the 'Prickly Prophet of Wall Street.' He discusses his new book, aiming to debunk financial myths and the importance of a critical information diet. Ritholtz emphasizes the fallacy of assuming expertise in financial advice, critiques billionaire investment models for average investors, and explores the evolving nature of market predictions. With a blend of humor and humility, he navigates the complexities of investing in today's world.

Evan Tindell, co-founder and CIO of Bireme Capital, has made waves with his classic value investing strategy, yielding over 19% annualized returns since 2016. In this engaging chat, he discusses his journey from poker player to investor, the cyclical nature of value investing, and the complexities of shorting meme stocks. Tindell shares insights on Japan's corporate governance changes, the impact of major tech on investment trends, and how he's using AI tools to enhance research strategies. Tune in for a wealth of investment wisdom!

In this conversation, Jonathan Birnbaum, Founder and CEO of OpenYield, discusses his mission to modernize fixed income trading. He breaks down the challenges of bond trading, including attracting liquidity providers and overcoming technological gaps compared to equities. Jonathan also highlights the rise of new market participants and the significance of algorithmic trading. Additionally, he shares insights on the transition from traditional voice trading to electronic platforms, signaling a pivotal moment in the evolution of the bond market.

Phil Huber, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Cliffwater, brings his expertise in private credit and alternative investments to the conversation. He discusses the explosive growth of the private credit market, now at $1.2 trillion, and addresses common concerns about potential market bubbles and volatility. Huber emphasizes the importance of due diligence and manager selection while navigating this complex asset class. He also shares insights on the evolving role of alternative investments in wealth management and the strategic approaches to mitigate risks.

Hester M. Peirce, known as the "Crypto Mom" and SEC Commissioner, leads the SEC's new Crypto Task Force. She shares her vision for a balanced regulatory approach that fosters innovation while protecting investors. The conversation dives into the challenges of the Howey test and the need for clearer guidance on crypto assets. Peirce emphasizes the importance of collaboration between agencies and stakeholder input to refine regulations. Moreover, she advocates for empowering investors with essential information to navigate the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.

Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investments, shares his insights on taxation and diverse investment strategies. He explains the 351 exchange, highlighting its benefits for tax efficiency in portfolios. Meb also delves into managing concentrated stock positions and the advantages of ETF structures over mutual funds. The conversation covers trend analysis challenges, the importance of diversification, and innovations in fixed income investing. Lastly, he discusses the influence of political changes on investment products, including cryptocurrency ETFs.

In a surprising twist, markets surged in Q4 2024, with the S&P 500 climbing 23% and Bitcoin skyrocketing 150%. The discussion dives into Bitcoin's newfound institutional backing, particularly from BlackRock with its record ETF launch. Insights on AI's transformative impact raise questions about inflated valuations. Regulatory shifts are examined, highlighting tech leaders stepping into government roles. Finally, the evolving startup ecosystem reflects changes in venture capital attitudes, focusing on remote work's influence on company culture.

Eric Johnson, Senior Technology Editor at the Journal of Commerce, discusses the ever-evolving world of global logistics. He delves into the intricate journey of goods, the impact of technology, and the serious challenges posed by pandemics and labor strikes. The conversation touches on the rise of AI in logistics, transforming operations and decision-making processes. Johnson also analyzes the competitive dynamics within the industry and the significant role of data in navigating economic trends, all while addressing the balance between efficiency and resiliency in supply chains.