Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Mark, Cris and Marisa (yes, she is back) welcome Matt Robison of the Beyond Politics podcast to talk policy and politics. The discussion ranges from the risk of a government shutdown and Bidenomics to a consideration of whether the nation’s politics are as fractured as they seem and who is going to be the next President.  It goes without saying there was also a fulsome conversation about this past week’s economic data - could the numbers have been any better? Even “supercore” inflation was up just 0.2% month over month and 4.2% year over year in June.For more from Matt Robison, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark and Cris take stock of the economy’s performance so far this year, and consider what surprised them (think the job market), what they got right (think weaker house prices), and what they got wrong (think the banking crisis). They also look forward and discuss what people are overly considered about, and what they should be more worried about.  Where’s Marisa?For the full transcript, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard.  The report arguably couldn’t have been better, as the conversation makes clear.  The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance.For more on Lance Lambert, click here or follow him on twitter @NewsLambertFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris & Marisa are joined by Jobs Day regular Dante DeAntonio to discuss the June employment report. Job growth is slowing to script but wage growth is still stubbornly high. The group discusses full employment, the probabilities of recession in the next year and what this all means for the Fed’s upcoming meetings.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the China Center of Yale Law School, discusses China’s near and longer-term economic prospects with Mark, Cris and Marisa. Steve explains why he has evolved from a bull to a bear on China’s economy, why the critical relationship between China and the U.S. has gone sideways, and how to get the relationship moving in a positive direction.For more on Stephen Roach, click hereFor more information on Stephen Roach's book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris and Marisa weigh whether or not to change the forecast for the Fed funds rate and dig deep to play the statistics game. Later they are joined by Professor Glenn Mueller of the University of Denver to talk all things commercial real estate. Professor Mueller ranks the segments of the CRE market from worst to best performing and explains why the legalization of marijuana has disrupted the retail market. For more on Glenn Mueller, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team takes shelter from a tornado (true story), and Mark Calabria, senior advisor to the Cato Institute and former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, describes the FHFA’s efforts to provide shelter to the housing and mortgage finance markets during the pandemic. His new book “Shelter from the Storm,” is a fascinating telling of that difficult period.For more on Mark Calabria, click here.For more information on Mark Calabria's book "Shelter from the Storm," click here.For the full transcript, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions over the independence of Taiwan, Mark and team consider various scenarios regarding how this is ultimately resolved. China appears to be taking a long-term perspective in its goal to unify Taiwan with the mainland, and thus the most likely scenario assumes the current uncomfortable, but peaceful status quo.  But much darker scenarios can’t be ruled out.For the full report on the China-Taiwan Scenarios, click here.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The group dives deep into the jobs report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of the legislative deal to end the debt limit drama, including the end of the student loan payment moratorium, are also part of the discussion. And of course there is the statistics game.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain even as the x-date draws near.  What are the alternatives if no deal is reached?  And what could be the consequences for bondholders, Social Security recipients, and other stakeholders?  Ben joins Mark and Cris in a round of the Inside Economics Statistics Game and provides his views on the future of retirement financing.For more on Ben Harris, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.