Samo Burja

Geopolitical analyst Samo Burja discusses preventing civilizational collapse, knowledge loss, the role of institutions in civilizations, bureaucracy challenges, democracies vs monarchies, AI sensemaking, great founder theory, avoiding power intoxication, democratization of technology, and geopolitical predictions.

In this engaging conversation, geopolitical analyst Samo Burja reveals profound insights into the decline of traditional power structures. He discusses the aftermath of Trump's election and draws striking parallels to the religious wars of the 1600s. Burja also addresses the challenges facing the political left, the role of technology in governance, and the misuse of government data. The dialogue spans urban life in Mexico City, modern cultural shifts, and the impact of Hollywood on society's narratives, providing a compelling lens on today's global dynamics.

Samo Burja, an expert on advancing uncrystallized knowledge, critiques academia's inefficiencies and proposes new structures. The discussion covers fostering innovation in social scenes, pursuing genuine knowledge, and competing with current academia. Topics include the role of crackpots, super connectors, acquiring knowledge, and societal behaviors.

This remains my favorite episode, despite Samo’s squeaky chair and some audio misses. We discuss ideas that have made a profound impact on my thinking, such as narrative hedging, the Bismarckian compromise, and energy leaps. This may sound like it was recorded last week with the insightful observations on energy and geopolitical conflict, but it was actually recorded nearly a year ago, at the end of April, and releasing in the middle of May.Samo Burja is the founder and president of the consulting company Bismarck Analysis, a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation and a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute. He is also the writer of the Bismarck Brief newsletter, linked below.In this podcast, we discuss the life of Otto Von Bismarck, the political economy of institutions, narratives as a hedge against failure, the coming energy transition, differences between Europe and America, regulation as vengeance, live players, Elon Musk, and the global financial system.Bismarck Analysis:https://www.bismarckanalysis.com/#/Bismarck Brief: Samo Burja on Twitter:https://twitter.com/SamoBurjaThe Costs of European “Privacy” Regulation:https://www.nber.org/papers/w30028EU Artificial Intelligence law:https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/13/1052223/guide-ai-act-europe/Great founder theory:https://samoburja.com/great-founder-theory/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

In a riveting discussion, Samo Burja, a political theorist and expert on populism, sheds light on the intricate relationship between populism and modern governance. He explores how populism has reshaped political strategies, using examples like Trump's tactics. Burja examines the historical evolution of the state and challenges facing the Republican Party in supporting populism. He also dives into the impact of privacy concerns in our data-driven world and the interplay between politics and cryptocurrency, suggesting innovative pathways for reform.

Exploring history, gerontocracy, and energy transition. Decaying knowledge, abundance of historical information, and Hitler-Stalin's views. Live Players vs. Great Founders, China vs. US fragility, and Capitalism's longevity. Transition to green energy, nuclear reactors, and resource limits. Challenges in European economic growth and societal vulnerabilities.

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg dive into tech stagnation, discussing energy consumption as a progress metric. They explore Y Combinator's influence, industrial jargon, and the importance of clear language in tech. The podcast touches on regulatory bottlenecks, evolving software innovation, and social media platform evolution.

On this episode of Unsupervised Learning Razib welcomes back Samo Burja, a guest who needs no introduction for long-time listeners. Burja is the podcast’s first third-time guest, and with good reason. Previously, he came on to discuss social technology and China and lost civilizations, plumbing the depths of the human past for insights about the present and future. Today Burja spotlights a timely new venture of his firm, Bismark Analysis: the Bismarck Brief newsletter, which provides a taste of the sort of “deep-dive” analyses Bujra provides clients (Drone Adoption Favors Quantity Over Quality In Warfare, The German Retreat From Nuclear Power and Modern Russia Can Fight And Win Land Wars).  He discusses the analytic model undergirding the Bismarck Brief, the idea of “live players,” individuals and institutions that can innovate and direct actions in surprising and novel ways, and “dead players,” who tend to operate in a rote manner following predictable scripts, and struggle to meet new challenges. A new start-up in a phase of expansion is a live player, disrupting the marketplace and transforming the notion of what is possible, like Google in 2000. In contrast, Google in 2022 is arguably a dead player, squeezing massive profits out of its capture of online advertising via search, but no longer transforming any sector of the economy. The remainder of the episode shifts to the details of Burja’s analytic process, and his thoughts at the time in February 2022 (when the episode was pre-recorded) on the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the earlier performance of Russian military forces in Syria and elsewhere. Razib and Samo touch on the geopolitical consequences of Europe’s energy dependence upon Russia, and its distortionary impact on German foreign policy. Because this episode was recorded before the Russian invasion that began on February 24th, 2022, Razib has circled back with Burja to record a bonus mini-episode tackling recent developments. That episode covers what the Russian invasion and the Western response might mean for the global order in the 21st century.

Samo Burja, founder of Bismarck Analysis, discusses why groups thrive or fail, the 80/20 principle in organizations, solving nepotism, the Wallenberg family of Sweden, and the influence of Nassim Taleb on worldviews.

Discussion on Alibaba post-Jack Ma, China's economy in 2024, Alibaba's evolution, Jack Ma's influence, Chinese government control, Belt and Road Initiative, Alibaba's AI challenges, and Ant Group dynamics.