Paul Saffo

Paul Saffo, a veteran Silicon Valley technology forecaster and author, discusses the crucial difference between effective and accurate forecasting. He emphasizes that focusing on effective forecasting allows consideration of various future possibilities. Saffo shares six rules to enhance forecasting methods, including visualizing uncertainty and analyzing historical patterns. He also elaborates on the importance of recognizing unconventional indicators and learning from the past to navigate the complexities of rapid innovation in technology.

As a holiday treat, this rebroadcast episode from January 2021 features Paul Saffo, forecaster and Head of Future Studies at Stanford University. He forecasts the future of city development in light of historic patterns of change, economic shifts, and the role of real estate post pandemic.  Paul talks from a perspective outside of the real estate industry, calling those who work and thrive in it “wickedly smart and wickedly practical.” The conversation highlights real estate as ground zero in urban development and future city growth.  He breaks down both macro and micro level ways to look at real estate investments and capital growth. The significance of regional planners is highlighted and Paul encourages visionary approaches to merging global civilization and social cohesion.  By focusing on themes that have stood the test of time throughout centuries of change, Paul believes that we can become good ancestors and build urban developments that will take us more successfully into the future.

In this insightful discussion, futurist Paul Saffo shares his expertise on scenario planning, emphasizing that we must hold our strong opinions weakly when anticipating the future. He critiques the obsession with accuracy in forecasting and highlights the influence of cultural backgrounds on predictions. Saffo also explores the role of technology and adaptability in society, cautioning against rigid thinking. Lastly, he underscores the importance of storytelling in shaping future narratives, advocating for a balanced view of innovation and intuition.