HBR On Strategy
How to Get Forecasting Right
Oct 2, 2024
Paul Saffo, a veteran Silicon Valley technology forecaster and author, discusses the crucial difference between effective and accurate forecasting. He emphasizes that focusing on effective forecasting allows consideration of various future possibilities. Saffo shares six rules to enhance forecasting methods, including visualizing uncertainty and analyzing historical patterns. He also elaborates on the importance of recognizing unconventional indicators and learning from the past to navigate the complexities of rapid innovation in technology.
15:40
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Quick takeaways
- Effective forecasting is crucial as it broadens the range of possible future scenarios, avoiding the pitfalls of inaccurate predictions.
- Analyzing historical patterns is essential for better forecasting, as it helps to identify cyclical trends and avoid flawed decision-making.
Deep dives
Effective vs. Accurate Forecasting
Effective forecasting is preferred over accurate forecasting, as the latter can often be unattainable due to inherent uncertainties. Aiming for effective forecasting means acknowledging a spectrum of future possibilities rather than fixating on a singular outcome. Instead of striving for pinpoint accuracy, it's crucial to explore a broader range of potential scenarios, which can better prepare decision-makers for unexpected developments. By doing this, organizations can avoid the pitfalls that arise from premature conclusions that ignore critical uncertainties.
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