There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.” In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.We will hear this story from two perspectives. Peter Bergen is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.Former CIA director Leon Panetta led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information. You can read more in the paper titled "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions."Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0623-3UG1)

Join Times Radio Political Editor Kate McCann and former CIA Director Leon Panetta as they dissect the fallout from Donald Trump's unexpected re-election. McCann shares insights on Washington and European reactions, highlighting political shifts, especially in the UK. Panetta provides a deep dive into the implications for U.S. foreign policy, touching on the potential isolationist trends and the delicate balance in international relations, particularly with Ukraine and China. It's a riveting exploration of a changing global landscape.

Leon Panetta, a former CIA director, calls Israel's military actions "terrorism," highlighting the toll of airstrikes in Lebanon. Political figure John Fetterman expresses controversial admiration for these tactics, sparking debate on ethics and support for Israel. The conversation also addresses the fallout from campaign scandals affecting candidate Mark Robinson. Discussions on the complexities of U.S.-Israeli relations and the impact of ongoing conflicts on domestic policies add depth, emphasizing the need for critical thinking amid misinformation.

In a riveting discussion, former US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and former US Ambassador John Bolton join US Air Force veteran Jake Broe and podcast host Ben Ferguson. They delve into the alarming assassination attempts on Donald Trump, questioning the efficiency of the Secret Service. The conversation explores the dangerous interplay between political rhetoric and violence, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced security for public figures. The implications for the upcoming election and the rising societal chaos take center stage as they unpack this unsettling reality.

Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta discusses his political career and personal reflections, including his immigrant background and experiences with troops. Topics include Ukraine aid delays, Afghanistan intelligence lapse, and Israel's fight against Hamas.