RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Productivity Push or Problem
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Sep 26, 2025 In this insightful discussion, Sam Rowe, an award-winning financial journalist and Substack author, dives into the complexities of Fed dynamics under Trump appointees and the looming threat of a government shutdown. He explores the paradox of cooling labor markets potentially boosting profit margins, while dissecting recent sectoral tariffs and their political implications. Rowe also engages in the challenging conversation of measuring productivity in the age of AI and shares insights on why his newsletter remains bullish on US stocks.
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Living Beside Fenway As A Student
- Sam lived near Fenway Park at BU and could see into the bleachers from his apartment window.
- Stadium lights would stay on after games, ruining sleep until 1 a.m.
Fed Officials See Lower Neutral Rate
- Myron and Bauman signal neutral rates may be lower, implying policy is tighter than markets expect.
- That raises real downside risk to the labor market even if headline GDP looks OK.
Weaker Labor Market Can Help Margins
- A cooling labor market can paradoxically boost corporate margins by reducing turnover and training costs.
- That near-term margin tailwind helps explain investor optimism despite softer labor metrics.