The Americas Quarterly Podcast Trump Wades into Brazil’s Campaign (Again)
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Jun 3, 2026 Chris Garman, Managing Director for the Americas at Eurasia Group and senior Brazil analyst, breaks down U.S. moves toward Brazil. He discusses the FTO designation and tariff recommendations. He explores Washington’s motives, friction inside the U.S. bureaucracy, rare-earths and mineral leverage, and how these actions could reshape the October race and Brazil’s political landscape.
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Bureaucratic Momentum Drove FTO And Tariff Moves
- The FTO and tariff moves were likely bureaucratic actions already in motion rather than direct reversals of Trump's friendly meeting with Lula.
- Chris Garman says internal State Department 'Brazil hawks' had momentum on both measures and Lula's diplomacy couldn't fully stop them.
FTO Designation Is Part Of A Regional Pattern
- The FTO designation fits a hemispheric pattern of the U.S. using terrorism labels against Latin American crime syndicates.
- Garman notes similar designations in Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia and others as part of domestic political signaling.
USTR's 25% Recommendation Is A Partial Deescalation
- Negotiations on tariffs will continue and the USTR's 25% recommendation is a de-escalation from last year's 50% measure.
- Garman says 25% is about half the prior punitive rate and talks with Brazil are ongoing into July.