The Americas Quarterly Podcast

Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian political analyst and journalist, examines Brazil’s volatile election race. He discusses the Vorcaro corruption scandal, the Supreme Court’s powerful and polarizing role, Lula’s faltering campaign, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s momentum. The conversation also explores Brazil’s uneasy economy, voter apathy, women’s influence, possible U.S. intervention, and the scandals that could still reshape the contest.

We’re all used to hearing pessimistic headlines about the state of democracy in Latin America and beyond. But the latest edition of the AmericasBarometer survey suggests the mood may be shifting. Support for democracy across the Americas rose between 2023 and 2026, the first broad upturn in the region’s commitment to democracy in a generation. The survey, from Vanderbilt University’s Center for Global Democracy and the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame, includes more than 25,000 interviews across 21 countries, from Argentina to the United States and Canada. It also offers a rare look inside Cuba, fresh data on how the region views China and the U.S. under President Trump, and a surprising decline in how many people say they want to emigrate. This week on the podcast, we break down the findings with Noam Lupu, Director of the Center for Global Democracy at Vanderbilt University.

On August 7th, Abelardo de la Espriella was inaugurated as Colombia's new president after winning an incredibly tight election. Three days later, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck the western part of the country, leaving damages close to $10 billion and devastating hundreds of municipalities across 15 departments. It was an extraordinary early test for a president still in his first week in office. De la Espriella came to power promising Milei-style fiscal cuts, a hardline security plan, and a sharp break from Gustavo Petro's four years in office: including restarting oil exploration, ending the total peace process, and launching joint military operations with the United States. Instead, his first major act was declaring a state of national emergency. Today on the podcast, we explore what his agenda looks like now on security, the economy, and the fiscal situation and ask how much he will still be able to get done. Our guest is Mauricio Cárdenas, former presidential candidate and minister of finance and Senior Scholar at Columbia University. Note: This episode incorrectly states that over 23 million people voted in the second round election in Colombia. The correct number is over 26 million votes. 

Venezuela's regime and parts of the political opposition are holding a new round of talks that analysts and citizens hope could lead to a democratic transition. The dialogue brings together Dinorah Figuera, representing the opposition-aligned 2015 National Assembly, and Jorge Rodríguez, brother of acting president Delcy Rodríguez and current head of the legislature. It comes more than seven months after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd, and at a moment when Washington has unprecedented leverage over Venezuelan affairs.Today on the podcast, we ask what Delcy Rodríguez actually wants out of this process, what role María Corina Machado will play given her absence from the talks, and whether the chavista regime is pursuing genuine change or simply stalling for time until Trump leaves office. Our guest is Anatoly Kurmanaev, international correspondent for The New York Times, who recently spent several weeks reporting from the country. He spoke to AQ from Germany. 

On July 28th, Keiko Fujimori took office as Peru’s ninth president in ten years. Most of her predecessors’ terms ended in impeachment, resignation, or prison. She won a June runoff by close to 50,000 votes, less than a full percentage point ahead of leftist Roberto Sánchez, and her inauguration ceremony captured the challenge ahead: Opposition lawmakers walked out of Congress rather than hear her inaugural address. Fujimori campaigned on stability, security, and economic reform, a message that resonated in a country where the homicide rate has doubled in recent years and where most agree the economy, despite growing last year, is still far from its potential. Her father’s shadow looms large: Alberto Fujimori stabilized Peru’s economy and defeated the Shining Path in the 1990s, but was later imprisoned for human rights abuses and corruption.Today on the podcast, we ask whether Keiko Fujimori can bring stability after a decade of chaos, unlock Peru’s economic potential, and navigate the country’s relationship with Washington and Beijing. Our guest is Alfredo Thorne, former Minister of Economy and Finance of Peru.

The $75 billion IPO for Elon Musk's SpaceX is just the latest sign of explosive growth in the global space industry, which is forecast to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Latin America, it turns out, has more to offer this boom than most people realize. Countries along the equator such as Ecuador, Brazil and Peru are among the most efficient and cost-effective places on Earth to launch satellites into orbit. In the Southern Cone, countries are already sought-after locations for ground observatories and some of them, like Argentina and Brazil, are producing their own satellites. The region's potential has caught the eye of the world's two superpowers, with the United States and China competing for influence on the ground. Today on the podcast, we ask how Latin America can fully exploit its natural advantages, how the US-China rivalry is playing out across the region, and what governments and companies need to do to become protagonists, not just a battleground, in the burgeoning space economy. Our guest is Laura Delgado López, senior fellow at the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University and a contributor to AQ's latest issue.

Security has become the defining issue in Latin American politics. In Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidency on a hardline security platform and a promise to scrap Petro's total peace plan. In Ecuador, Daniel Noboa won re-election on the back of a military crackdown against criminal gangs. And in Washington, the Trump administration launched the Shield of the Americas: A coalition of like-minded governments committed to a military-led approach to fighting organized crime. Meanwhile, criminal groups are doing what they always do: reorganizing, diversifying, and finding new markets to tap into, from the United States and Europe to an increasingly lucrative market in Asia and within Latin America itself. Today on the podcast, our annual big picture look at how organized crime is evolving across the region: How well is the militarized approach working? And what can we expect from this new generation of right-wing leaders? Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, co-director of InSight Crime. 

Brian Fonseca, Vice Provost and director at Florida International University with expertise in defense and U.S.-Cuba policy, maps four possible futures for Cuba. He sketches humanitarian aid options, targeted coercive moves, the chances of internal elite fractures, and the contours of negotiated settlements. Short, clear scenarios explore what each path would look like on the ground.

Chris Garman, Managing Director for the Americas at Eurasia Group and senior Brazil analyst, breaks down U.S. moves toward Brazil. He discusses the FTO designation and tariff recommendations. He explores Washington’s motives, friction inside the U.S. bureaucracy, rare-earths and mineral leverage, and how these actions could reshape the October race and Brazil’s political landscape.

Ever since Donald Trump took office, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum has tried to strike a careful balance: Working with Washington on security matters while maintaining sovereignty and domestic support. She sent 10,000 troops to the northern border, largely abandoned her predecessor's "hugs not bullets" strategy, and held one of the highest approval ratings in the region. But lately, that balance has become more challenging. In late April, the U.S. Justice Department indicted a sitting Morena governor on drug trafficking charges and media reports have pointed to a CIA presence in Mexican territory. This comes just as Sheinbaum's government prepares for one of its toughest negotiations yet: The USMCA review, expected to begin in July. Today on the podcast: an overview of US-Mexico ties and what they mean for security, economic activity, and trade in both countries. Our guest is Brenda Estefan, professor of geopolitics at IPADE Business School in Mexico City and columnist at Reforma.