The Americas Quarterly Podcast

The fate of Venezuela hinges on the country’s once-proud energy sector. Since Maduro’s capture two weeks ago, questions about how the industry could be recovered have become critically important: What’s the real state of the Venezuelan oil industry today? Under what conditions might U.S. companies be able to deliver on the $100 billion in investment that President Trump says is needed? Can the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez deliver those conditions? Today on the podcast, we take a realistic look at what political and economic steps are necessary for the Venezuelan oil industry to begin its long recovery. Our guest is Luis Pacheco, a nonresident fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and former president of the ad hoc PDVSA board.

Andrés Martínez-Fernández, a Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, dives into the implications of Nicolás Maduro's arrest in Venezuela. He discusses how this pivotal moment could spark change while Delcy Rodríguez's potential to lead the Chavista regime is assessed. Martínez-Fernández outlines U.S. leverage strategies against the regime and emphasizes the importance of urgent action from the Venezuelan opposition. He also highlights broader regional impacts, including challenges in Colombia and Cuba, while warning of Chavista stalling tactics.

Despite trade tensions and political uncertainty, 2025 was not a bad year for Latin America's economies, with growth of around 2.4 percent, broadly in line with post-pandemic trends. In this episode we look ahead to 2026 and analyze the outlook for the region, from fiscal pressures and a pivotal election in Brazil to uncertainty around Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei and the evolving trade relationship between Mexico and the United States. To unpack which countries and sectors look strongest, and where the biggest risks lie, we’re joined by Nur Cristiani, head of LATAM investment strategy at J.P. Morgan’s Private Bank. 

In this discussion, Ricardo Zúniga, a former principal advisor for the Americas to President Obama and now a strategic advisor, dives into the implications of Trump's National Security Strategy. He outlines the doctrine's focus on migration, crime, and a more assertive U.S. presence in Latin America, contrasting it with previous policies. Zúniga highlights the revival of the Monroe Doctrine and the push to counter China’s influence, sparking debates on U.S. intervention in regional elections and the shifting dynamics of trade, particularly through nearshoring.

Right-wing candidates are gaining victories across Latin America. Chile will likely turn right in the upcoming second round of elections, Javier Milei made legislative gains in Argentina and in Bolivia recent elections ended 20 years of Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party leadership. With key races ahead in 2026, some analysts say the right could become the region’s dominant political force, echoing the sweeping “pink tide” of the early 2000s, but in the opposite ideological direction. Is this a historic turn, or are voters simply rejecting whoever is in power? In this episode, we debate this question with Oliver Stuenkel, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and ask what it could mean for the years ahead.

Chileans head to the polls this Sunday, November 16. In the last election cycle, Gabriel Boric won following the massive 2019 protests that shook the nation to its core. At the time, it seemed Chile was set for sweeping structural change: the classic poster child for neoliberal economic policy in Latin America appeared ready to build a stronger welfare state and elect leaders from the left. Six years later, some change has occurred, but not nearly as dramatic as many expected. Efforts to rewrite the constitution were aborted twice, and the young leftist president, Gabriel Boric, is leaving office with an approval rating of just 30%. Chileans have turned their attention to other issues, especially crime, which has worsened notably over the past decade. The widespread expectation is that voters will opt for a change in power, and that Chile will join several other Latin American countries swinging to the right.In this episode, we speak with Patricio Navia, a Chilean political scientist, about what this could mean for Chile’s economy and strategic alliances. Navia is a professor at both New York University and Universidad Diego Portales.

Ryan Berg, director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, delves into the U.S. military buildup in the Southern Caribbean under the Trump administration. He explores the real motives behind the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford and whether it targets drug cartels or pressures Maduro. Berg highlights the complexities within the Venezuelan military and the risks of military action, including potential unintended consequences and impacts on U.S.-Colombia relations. He also touches on the rising influence of China in the region.

Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum has hit the one-year mark of her presidency. In that time she has had to balance three key relationships: with President Donald Trump, with her still-powerful predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador and with the Mexican public. She faced skepticism, but has surprised many. Sheinbaum’s approval rating is at 73%, and a plurality of Mexicans said in a recent poll that her government is off to a better start than AMLO’s. Challenges loom, from fragile security gains and economic uncertainty to political dispute within her party and the ever-volatile dynamic with Washington. To assess her first year in office and what lies ahead we speak with Brenda Estefan, professor at IPADE Business School and columnist for Reforma and Americas Quarterly.

Juan Cruz Díaz, a political risk consultant and Managing Director at Cefeidas Group, dives deep into Argentina's current political landscape under President Javier Milei. He discusses how a crucial $20 billion U.S. swap line could stabilize Milei's administration amid turmoil. Key topics include Milei's recent tone moderation, the challenges posed by domestic political constraints, and social unrest dynamics. Díaz also evaluates the implications of upcoming elections and the potential for coalition-building that could define Argentina's economic recovery.

Latin America is entering a packed election season, with Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and Brazil all set to elect presidents in the next 13 months. This is happening just as organized crime reaches unprecedented power. In several of these countries, crime is showing up in polls as the number one political issue. Security expert Lucía Dammert explains how booming cocaine production, money laundering and criminal infiltration of formal economies are reshaping politics across the region. Dammert has a unique perspective as someone who has worked in both academia and government across the region. She has a new book out, Anatomía del poder ilegal: Violencia, crimen organizado y corrupción en América Latina.