"Beyond the Polls" welcomes Scott Rasmussen to discuss 2024 hopefuls, Steve Kornacki to analyze the race between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, and Jon Ralston to explore Nevada politics. They discuss overcoming Trump's lead, reaching swing voters, and the difference between a caucus and primary in Nevada.
Nevada has a diverse political landscape, with different regions leaning Democratic or Republican, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential race may slightly lean Democratic.
Kentucky's Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, remains slightly ahead in the polls despite the state's red leanings, and the outcome of the governor's race will depend on the Republican primary and potential contenders.
Deep dives
Nevada's Political Landscape
Nevada is a swing state with a diverse political landscape. It is divided into three regions: Clark County (Las Vegas), which leans Democratic; Washoe County (Reno) as the swing county; and the rural counties, which are predominantly Republican. The state has seen an increase in independent voter registration due to a motor voter law. In the 2022 elections, independent voters played a role in both the Democratic and Republican wins. In the upcoming presidential race, Nevada may lean slightly Democratic, while the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and potential Republican nominees remains competitive, with the outcome dependent on the Republican nominee.
Kentucky's Gubernatorial Race
Kentucky, a typically deep red state, has a Democratic governor, Andy Beshear. He narrowly won in 2019 against an unpopular incumbent. Beshear is now facing a challenge from Daniel Cameron, the state's Republican Attorney General and a protege of Mitch McConnell. Despite the state's red leanings, Beshear remains slightly ahead in the polls. The race is closely watched as it pits Beshear, from a long-standing Democratic family, against Cameron, who is African American and seen as an establishment Republican candidate. The outcome will depend on how the Republican primary plays out, with multiple contenders and the potential for a contested race.
The Primary vs. Caucus in Nevada
Nevada's political process includes both a primary and a caucus. Historically, Nevada held caucuses, but a 2008 law changed the presidential nominating process to a primary. However, the Republican Party in Nevada has decided to hold a caucus instead of participating in the primary. This has led to confusion among voters and creates two separate elections. The caucus will determine the allocation of delegates, while the primary is seen as a fundraising exercise. The choice to hold a caucus is seen as a move to benefit former President Donald Trump, who has strong support among Republican base voters in the state.
Donald Trump looks like he’s running away with the GOP nomination, but several impressive opponents keep flailing away trying to catch him. Is this an exercise in futility or can one of them actually unseat him from his throne?
To discuss the complicated feat facing 2024 hopefuls, Henry welcomes RMG Research Founder and President Scott Rasmussen for the Polling Barometer; NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki on the Republican Rumble; and Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston on all things “Silver State”.
And stay tuned til the end for Henry’s breakdown of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s well played ad attacking challenger Daniel Cameron’s position on abortion.
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