NAB Morning Call Not so fast!
Nov 9, 2025
Rodrigo Catril, NAB Markets researcher, dives into the signs of a global economic slowdown, highlighting the impact of recent data from Michigan and China's falling exports. He discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Rodrigo also examines Canada’s employment landscape, contrasting part-time gains with full-time losses. With insights on tariffs and Australia’s upcoming labour data, he provides a comprehensive analysis of shifting economic dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Global Slowdown Signals Intensify
- The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment collapse and China export fall point toward a broader global slowdown.
- Political factors like the US government shutdown amplify consumer pessimism and inflation worries.
Sentiment Drop Is Broad And Inflationary
- The Michigan survey drop is broad-based across ages, incomes and political affiliations.
- One-year inflation expectations stayed high at 4.7% while five-to-ten-year expectations were 3.6%, worrying consumers.
Shutdown Raises Tangible Economic Costs
- The US government shutdown is reducing service capacity and raising visible costs like cancelled flights.
- Rising disruption before Thanksgiving will increase political pressure to resolve the shutdown.