KQED's Forum How Prop 50 and Governor’s Race Are Shaping Early Midterm Projections
Jan 29, 2026
Erin Covey, Cook Political Report editor covering the U.S. House and redistricting expert. Guy Marzorati, KQED California politics correspondent tracking statewide races and governance. They discuss how Prop 50's new maps reshape California contests. They explore the governor race dynamics, national midterm trends, shifting voter blocs, legal fights over maps, and risks to election integrity.
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Governor Race Framed As Fight Versus Fix
- California's gubernatorial primary is crowded with no clear frontrunner and voters remain undecided.
- Candidates are defining themselves by either fighting Trump or focusing on local fixes like homelessness and housing.
Maps Matter — But Mood Matters More
- Prop 50 redraws in California shift several seats toward Democrats but national environment still matters most.
- Redistricting may flip three seats and protect vulnerable incumbents, yet voter views of the president could override map effects.
Which California Seats Shifted Blue
- Cook Political Report moved several California districts toward Democrats after Prop 50.
- Northern California seats and parts of Southern and Central Valley became significantly more favorable to Democrats.