Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp
May 30, 2025
The podcast dives into the overstated hopes for a legal resolution to the US trade war, emphasizing the risk of increased tariffs. Economic growth remains uncertain, influenced by prior front-loading and resilience tracking debates. The potential for weakness could signal various outcomes, from recession to rebound, complicating Federal Reserve strategies. Listeners will find insights into tariff implications, manufacturing trends, and the delicate balance of economic indicators shaping the future landscape.
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Trade War and Growth Outlook
- Tariff rates are expected to rise, sustaining a prolonged trade war with rates around 15%-18%.
- Economic growth shows an upside risk in Q2 but faces an imminent shift to subpar growth ahead.
Court Case Impact Overstated
- The recent court case is a non-event and unlikely to change the trajectory of U.S. trade tariffs.
- Higher tariffs and trade tensions will persist, driven by political dynamics and upcoming negotiations.
Manufacturing Growth Unwind Expected
- Global manufacturing growth has been front-loaded and will likely decline 1-2% as this demand normalizes.
- Even in a perfect scenario, prepare for a significant short-term decline in manufacturing output.