A ‘rain delay’ for the energy transition [partner content]

10 snips

Jan 20, 2026

Tom Burton, Chair of the Sustainable Energy and Infrastructure Practice at Mintz, brings nearly three decades of experience in clean energy. He discusses the current state of the energy transition, calling it a 'rain delay' with a surge of projects followed by a thinning pipeline post-2026. Political factors complicate this landscape, as federal hostility and permitting challenges create risks for developers. Burton explains which companies are most vulnerable, and how data centers are shifting to energy-first deals amidst rising demand and investment uncertainties.

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INSIGHT

Transition Entered A Rain Delay

The energy transition is in a 'rain delay' with near-term deliveries but a thinning pipeline after 2026.
Tom Burton warns 2027–2028 will see substantially fewer new renewables coming online.

INSIGHT

Politics Tightened The Playing Field

Political shifts have made deals harder, raised costs, and increased project risk across the clean energy sector.
Burton describes 2025 as a messy year that tightened funding and complicated transactions.

ADVICE

Model Projects To Survive Credit Shifts

Pivot and model projects to work without full tax-credit support to survive the shakeout.
Target being well-capitalized and adaptable so you can absorb rule changes like the FIAC adjustments.

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In 2024, Tom Burton described the clean energy transition as entering its “third inning” — a phase defined by execution and scale. A year later, the game looks very different.

In this episode, produced in partnership with Mintz, Stephen Lacey sits down with Burton to revisit that framework and assess the state of play for U.S. energy infrastructure heading into 2026.

Burton, who chairs Mintz’s sustainable energy and infrastructure practice, brings nearly 3 decades of experience advising developers, investors, and operators across clean energy and digital infrastructure.

They begin with the immediate market picture: a surge of renewable projects racing to put steel in the ground under existing tax rules, followed by a thinning pipeline. Burton explains why 2027 and 2028 could mark a slowdown in new deployments, even as demand continues to rise.

From there, the conversation turns to politics. Federal hostility toward clean energy, shifting tax credit structures, foreign sourcing rules, and the weaponization of permitting have introduced new layers of risk. Deals are harder to close, financing is more complex, and even strong projects are feeling the strain.

Burton unpacks what this environment means for developers, including who’s most exposed to the current shakeout, what separates resilient companies from struggling ones, and why permitting uncertainty may now be a bigger threat than tax policy itself.

The episode also explores one of the defining forces reshaping the energy sector: the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure. Burton explains how power availability, interconnection, and long-term grid planning are now central to dealmaking.

The energy transition hasn’t stopped, says Burton. But it has entered a rain delay — and the companies that adapt during the pause will be the ones still standing when play resumes.

These conversations were recorded at the Mintz Energy Transition Summit. Mintz has been at the frontlines of the energy and sustainability revolution since the start. For finance, policy, and market insights from the Mintz team, sign up for their newsletter.