Senior Economist Brendon Bernard discusses Canada's job market, highlighting low unemployment rates, wage increases, and population growth challenges. The podcast delves into the complexities of tracking job market data, real wages, labor productivity, Alberta's economic struggles, and the future of the energy sector.
Despite low unemployment and rising wages, Canada's job market faces challenges due to rapid population growth.
Certain sectors like manufacturing and construction are weak, while professional services show mixed job growth trends.
Real wage growth in Canada is modest, struggling to keep pace with inflation, highlighting competitiveness challenges.
Deep dives
Overview of the Canadian Job Market
Canada's job market presents a complex picture with contrasting trends. While unemployment remains low and wages are increasing, the rapid population growth poses challenges. Despite adding 40,000 new jobs in August, the surge in population outpaces job creation, leading to job vacancies dwindling and lower wage growth compared to the US.
Challenges and Weaknesses Across Job Sectors
Certain sectors like manufacturing and construction show signs of weakness, impacting overall job market dynamics. The professional and technical services sector exhibited fluctuations in job growth, indicating a mixed trend. The job market, amidst increasing population growth, struggles to match employment opportunities with the expanding workforce.
Soft Labor Market Indicators and Youth Employment
The Canadian labor market displays a slight weakening, particularly evident among youth employment. The slow start to the summer hiring season and subdued job numbers present challenges. Factors such as cyclical weakness in sectors and changes in job types contribute to the labor market's current state.
Impact of Population Growth and Wage Trends
While Canadian real wages have started to rebound, the pace is modest, partially recovering from the spike in living costs during 2021-2022. The recovery in purchasing power remains gradual, with real wage growth around 1% to 2% year-over-year. The discrepancy between wage growth and inflation highlights ongoing challenges in maintaining competitiveness.
Shift Towards Hybrid Remote Work and Productivity Decline
Remote work trends are shifting towards hybrid arrangements over full remote work. Job postings mentioning remote or hybrid work attract more interest and potentially facilitate quicker job filling. Amid discussions on declining labor productivity for five consecutive quarters, various cyclical and structural factors, such as economic uncertainty and changes in investment patterns, influence productivity levels.
Canada’s job market is confusing right now. On one hand, unemployment is still near record lows, last month’s job numbers from StatsCan exceeded expectations, and wages are finally starting to increase faster than inflation.
But...
Our population is growing so quickly that we actually added more people in July than the 40,000 jobs that were created, job vacancies are drying up, and compared to the US, our wage growth hasn’t been great at all.
Brendon Bernard is the Senior Economist at Indeed.com, and he’s back on the pod to unpack what's going on in Canada's job market and what it means for workers and businesses.