The US Ban on Huawei and Peak Smartphone with Bryan Ma

Jun 20, 2019

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In Episode 303, Bryan Ma, vice president from IDC joined us to discuss the US ban on Huawei and its implications to the smartphone market across the world. We dived deep to how Huawei will be crippled by being on the US entity list and whether Samsung will make a comeback due to this surprise turn of events. Next, we discuss the major smartphone and PC trends across Asia Pacific, the recent foldables fiasco by Samsung and what the next innovation for smartphones might be on the horizon.

Here are the interesting show notes and links to the discussion (with time-stamps included):

Bryan Ma (@bryanbma , LinkedIn), Vice President IDC [0:18]
- Since our last conversation, what have you been up to? [0:28]
The US ban of Huawei and its impact [1:30]
- Can you offer an introduction to the recent US action on Huawei? [1:39]
- Upon Huawei on the United States’ blacklist, the action has forced Google cutting the android support for future devices and ARM not going to supply future chipsets, what are your perspectives on Huawei for both the smartphone and carrier networks business? (Ref: Reuters on companies list) [2:57]
- Where do Huawei go from here given that they have no problems surviving in their local market but globally they will have challenges moving ahead? [8:37]
- Bryan's comments that the US is targeting Huawei on their carrier networks rather than smartphone market. [12:11]
- If this has not happened, will Huawei become the number one global smartphone player? [13:24]
- We know that Huawei also build laptops. Have they been successful with those, and how will they be affected by trade tensions too? [14:27]
- Who are going to benefit from Huawei’s current troubles in the smartphone market? Will Samsung get a comeback? [16:16]
- Given that Xiaomi is a public company and their structures are pretty transparent, will the other Chinese smartphone makers be affected? [18:46]
- Effect on Apple in China. [21:25]
Peak Smartphone? Major trends in smartphones and PCs [22:23]
- Based on our last conversation, let’s start with smartphones, what are the current brands that are leading globally? [23:14]
- From most reports, India is the only major growth engine of smartphones last year, bringing 100M mobile users online. Will that growth continues in the next two to three years from now? [24:04]
- Are we in the period of peak smartphone? Will smartphones like PCs be commoditized? Will innovations on the smartphone be incremental or are there any tech which we are not aware of on the horizon that will shift the smartphone to the next level? [25:19]
- Where do the wearables or other technology such as the watch, glass, VR or AR augment the smartphone ecosystem? [26:47]
- Are the Chinese brands such as Huawei, Oppo & Vivo and Xiaomi leading the way as compare to what Samsung has done in the past few years?
- How about Apple? Will their recent sudden decline in China lead iPhone towards a major downturn for them? Given Apple’s turn towards services, what are your thoughts on Apple’s prospects with the smartphone? [28:20]
- Can you talk about the recent Samsung foldable phone fiasco?
- Are foldables really something that users are asking for, and how quickly do you think it will take off? [29:27]
- What about foldable laptops like the one that Lenovo showed off recently? And dual-screen laptops like the new HP Omen X 2S or the ones that ASUS and Intel showed off at COMPUTEX? [34:27]
- What are your thoughts on the shift with the iPad in the recent WWDC 2019? [39:02]
Closing [40:12]
- Can you recommend a book or movie or podcast or anything which recently made an impact to your work and personal life? [40:21]
  - Bryan’s recommendation: Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus, “Old Town Road” song.
- How do my audience find you? [42:31]

Podcast Information:

The show is hosted by Bernard Leong (@bernardleong & weibo) and are sponsored by Ideal Workspace (Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn) with their new Altizen Desk (Twitter, Facebook, Medium). Sound credits for the intro music: Taro Iwashiro, "The Beginning" from Red Cliff Soundtrack and this episode is both hosted and edited by Carol Yin, and co-produced by Carol Yin and Bernard Leong.