What is Rwanda doing in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
Feb 1, 2025
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Fred Bauma, a leading voice from Kinshasa’s Ebuteli Research Institute, Jason Stearns, an expert on Congolese conflict, and journalist Michela Wrong dive deep into Rwanda's controversial involvement in the DRC. They discuss the alarming capture of Goma by M23 rebels and the historical ties between the two countries. The trio addresses the external influences complicating the situation, the Congolese military's readiness, and the importance of national identity amidst a backdrop of international indifference. This conversation sheds light on a complex regional crisis.
Rwanda's military involvement in the DRC, particularly through supporting the M23 rebel group, escalates regional tensions and raises fears of renewed conflict cycles.
The Congolese public's discontent stems from historical violence linked to Rwanda, compounded by perceived inaction from the international community and limited media coverage.
Deep dives
Rwanda's Military Aggression in the DRC
Rwanda's recent military actions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have raised significant concern, particularly with the capture of Goma by the M23 rebel group, which is believed to be supported by Rwanda. The DRC’s current government has labeled this incursion as a declaration of war, marking a potentially dangerous escalation in regional tensions. Historical context reveals that Rwanda has previously intervened in the DRC, contributing to regime changes during the late 20th century, raising fears that these cycles of conflict are poised to continue. The stakes are high, as destabilization in the region stands to affect neighboring countries and attract international scrutiny.
Public Sentiment and Historical Context
The Congolese public's reaction to the M23's advance is heavily influenced by a long history of violence linking Rwanda to conflicts in the DRC. Many citizens perceive the M23's actions as a direct result of inaction from the international community, prompting protests and anger toward Western embassies. This historical narrative fuels national sentiment, as the Congolese people draw parallels with past conflicts that devastated their nation and led to significant casualties. The media situation complicates perceptions, as limited information often leads to confusion and speculation among the population regarding the reality on the ground.
Effectiveness of the Congolese Army
The current capabilities of the Congolese army to counter the threat posed by the M23 and other rebel groups have been called into question. While the government has increased military spending significantly, with allocations rising from $400 million to $2 billion, there remains skepticism about the effectiveness of these investments. The Congolese army faces numerous challenges, including the presence of a well-organized and technologically supported M23, which complicates military responses. Reports indicate that despite funding improvements, the army's operational readiness and capacity to engage in sustained conflict remain inadequate.
International Relations and External Influences
The role of outside powers, particularly France and the UK, has been scrutinized in the context of the ongoing DRC conflict. Many Congolese believe that foreign nations have historically played a role in exacerbating tensions while ostensibly addressing human rights concerns. Although France's Foreign Minister has engaged with both Kinshasa and Kigali, skepticism lingers regarding the sincerity of external efforts in addressing the root causes of conflict. Observers note that genuine interventions must transcend mere diplomatic statements and require actionable steps to mitigate further regional instability.
The idea of Rwanda invading the Democratic Republic of Congo looks, on paper, preposterous. However, as an alliance of rebel groups seized Goma, the biggest city in the DRC’s east, we ask: what is the plan? Fred Bauma joins Andew Mueller with the latest from Kinshasa. Then: Jason Stearns and Michela Wrong tell us about the history behind this conflict and consider the view from Rwanda.