NAB Morning Call A tiny bit more risk
Dec 2, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Taylor Nugent, NAB's markets economist based in Sydney, shares his expert analysis on Australia’s GDP and financial trends. He highlights that recent GDP numbers suggest a stronger than anticipated growth of 2.2% year on year. Taylor also delves into the dynamics of bond yields in Japan, touching on the implications of a potential BoJ rate hike. Additionally, the conversation covers the increasing risk appetite in markets, propelling stocks and Bitcoin upward amid changing investor sentiments.
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Markets Take A Small Risk Tilt
- Global markets showed a small but clear tilt toward risk, lifting US equities and Bitcoin modestly.
- The move was muted because there was little major data to drive large shifts in prices.
NAB's GDP Call Stays At 2.2% YoY
- NAB expects Q3 GDP to be 0.7% q/q, implying 2.2% year-on-year growth.
- Public demand boosts are partly offset by inventory drags, leaving the forecast near consensus.
NAB Disagrees With OECD On RBA Easing
- The OECD's growth projections for Australia are slightly softer than NAB's and imply room for policy easing.
- NAB disagrees, seeing the economy closer to balance and inflation risks that may push the RBA to be firmer, not looser.