The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show
325. The Macro Seesaw: Mixed Economic Signals, CMBS Issuance History, Rising Delinquencies & Industrial Sales
May 2, 2025
The podcast dives into the latest mixed economic signals, analyzing fresh inflation reports and job market uncertainties. It highlights a troubling rise in CMBS delinquencies, especially in the lodging and office sectors. Plans for Deloitte's shiny new HQ at Hudson Yards bring some positivity, while discussions around 'zombie buildings' in Chicago reveal darker market challenges. Plus, intriguing updates on industrial transactions, including a significant warehouse portfolio sale, keep the commercial real estate landscape dynamic.
45:19
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast highlights the ongoing economic tension, exemplified by a declining GDP and rising inflation, which raises concerns about potential stagflation.
- Recent CMBS delinquency data reveals a troubling increase in rates across sectors like multifamily and office, contrasting with improvements in industrial and retail.
Deep dives
Labor Market Resilience Amidst Uncertainty
The current labor market demonstrates remarkable resilience despite emerging signs of economic stress, such as weak job growth and economic contraction. Recent employment data revealed an ADP jobs report showing job growth of only 62,000, falling significantly short of expectations of 114,000. This apprehension is compounded by speculation that the forthcoming non-farm payrolls report could also disappoint, potentially indicating a broader downturn in employment. However, until layoffs substantially increase and the unemployment rate rises, there remains a cautious optimism regarding the overall strength of the labor market.
