The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 325. The Macro Seesaw: Mixed Economic Signals, CMBS Issuance History, Rising Delinquencies & Industrial Sales
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May 2, 2025 The podcast dives into the latest mixed economic signals, analyzing fresh inflation reports and job market uncertainties. It highlights a troubling rise in CMBS delinquencies, especially in the lodging and office sectors. Plans for Deloitte's shiny new HQ at Hudson Yards bring some positivity, while discussions around 'zombie buildings' in Chicago reveal darker market challenges. Plus, intriguing updates on industrial transactions, including a significant warehouse portfolio sale, keep the commercial real estate landscape dynamic.
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Labor Market Resilience and Risks
- The labor market shows resilience, but signs like weaker job growth and rising ADP reports hint at potential layoffs ahead.
- Watching non-farm payrolls and unemployment trends is critical to anticipate economic shifts affecting commercial real estate.
Declining Consumer Confidence Impact
- Consumer confidence is declining amidst inflation and economic weakening, threatening to dampen future spending.
- Early signs from auto industry incentives reveal concerns about consumer demand slipping closer to a breaking point.
Rising CMBS Delinquencies by Sector
- CMBS delinquency rate rose to 7.03%, driven mainly by lodging, multifamily, and office sectors.
- Agency-backed multifamily loans show much lower delinquency, highlighting risk disparities within the market.