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The Wharton Moneyball Post Game Podcast
Moneyball Highlights: NFL Preview with Josh Hermsmeyer
Sep 4, 2024
The hosts dive into the excitement of the upcoming NFL season, focusing on new kickoff rules and their impact on gameplay strategies. They explore the complexities of team behavior modeling, drawing parallels to COVID projections. The conversation shifts to pivotal decision-making during kickoffs and how these can sway game outcomes. They analyze the competitiveness of NFL divisions, spotlighting the AFC West and the New York Jets' challenges, while making predictions based on team dynamics and player performances.
26:35
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Quick takeaways
- The NFL's new kickoff rule may fail to increase return rates, prompting teams to prioritize field position over riskier kickoff returns.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to dominate the AFC West, while the NFC West presents a more competitive landscape among its teams.
Deep dives
Impact of the New Kickoff Rule
The introduction of the NFL's new kickoff rule is anticipated to significantly affect team strategies during games. While the league aims to increase kickoff returns from 21% to 60%, data suggests this may not happen as teams might prefer to kick the ball out of the end zone and start at the 30-yard line instead. This strategy minimizes potential risky returns that could lead to scoring opportunities for opponents. Coaches, including Bill Belichick, are expected to adopt such conservative tactics, focusing more on field position than exciting kickoff returns.
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