Ep 131: Thomas Mahnken on Strategic Fallacies (War in Ukraine #3)
Jul 9, 2024
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Thomas Mahnken, President of CSBA, discusses strategic fallacies in warfare focusing on rationality, Hitler's actions, and dangers of under/overestimating adversaries. He challenges war being solely irrational, emphasizing the need for accurate strategic assessments.
Wars stem from deliberate decisions by political leaders, not just misunderstandings or mistakes.
Accurate assessments of adversaries and oneself are crucial to avoid strategic errors and ensure preparedness.
Deep dives
The Fallacy of the Irrationality of War
The fallacy of the irrationality of war suggests that war occurs due to a policy breakdown rather than being an extension of politics, a notion evident in the lead-up to the Ukraine conflict. Individuals tend to dismiss wars as irrational outcomes of misunderstandings or mistakes, undermining the reality that wars stem from deliberate decisions by political leaders.
Fallacies of Rationality and Political Objectives
The podcast delves into historical examples, such as Norman Angell's 'The Great Illusion,' which argued that war is irrational. However, it highlights how adversaries like Hitler or Saddam Hussein were rational in pursuing their political objectives, even if they seemed irrational based on differing values and goals. Understanding adversaries' motivations and strategic thinking reveals the falsity of labeling wars solely as products of irrationality.
Fallacies of Overestimation
The fallacy of overestimating adversaries and underestimating oneself leads to strategic errors and timidity in decision-making. Through historical examples like the Korean War's aftermath of the Incheon landing, where overestimation resulted in unforeseen consequences, the podcast emphasizes the importance of accurate assessments in avoiding misjudgments and prioritizing preparedness.
Understanding Fallacies of Interaction
The fallacy of expecting technological innovations to offer quick and decisive victories in wars is discussed, reflecting historical beliefs in forms like strategic bombing or cyber warfare as war-enders. Additionally, the fallacy of scripting war outcomes reveals the tendency to dictate actions without accounting for adversaries' responses, key aspects of strategic thinking and war planning that necessitate awareness and analysis.