Market on Edge: 18-Year Cycle Hitting ‘Winner's Curse,’ Says Logan Freeman

Paul Shannon sits down with Logan Freeman (a.k.a. “Mr. Kansas City”) for a deep dive into the 18-year real estate cycle and how it shapes today’s market. Drawing on the works of economists like Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, Logan explains why land scarcity and speculative credit often drive real estate booms and busts. He also highlights how investors can prepare for what he calls a “winter’s curse,” using historical cycles to spot new opportunities and avoid pitfalls. If you’re looking to navigate the next few years in real estate with an eye on both history and strategy, this conversation offers an essential roadmap.

Today’s Episode Takeaways

- The 18.6-Year Framework: Why land values, access to credit, and investor psychology create repeating upswings and contractions.

- Ricardo’s Law of Economic Rent: How scarce land resources drive speculation and shape “winner’s curse” booms.

- Historical Context: From 1993–2010’s cycle to the 2025–2028 outlook, including the impact of debt maturities.

- Preparing for Opportunities: Why managing liquidity, fixing long-term debt, and maintaining strong cash flows are Logan’s focus.

- Local vs. Macro: How city-level policy and development (like Kansas City’s rebounds) can differ from national trends – and what it all means for your strategy.

Disclaimer

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any of the advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.