US Tariff Threat Risks Own Goal in Solar Trade War
Jun 26, 2024
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Solar module oversupply leads to record low prices, US companies seek tariffs on Asian manufacturers, impact on US solar manufacturing and global markets discussed, potential drawbacks of tariffs for US solar projects and economy highlighted
US solar industry faces challenges due to tariffs on module prices, limiting choices and impacting costs.
Tariffs target solar factories in Southeast Asia, aiming to promote US manufacturing despite challenges in growth and profitability.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on US Solar Industry
The US solar industry faces challenges due to the impact of tariffs on solar module prices. With US developers paying three times more for modules than developers in Europe, the tariffs have limited module choices to factories outside of China. Although utility scale projects incur a significant portion of costs from modules, US tax credits have mitigated the higher prices, supporting solar deployments.
Tariff Efforts to Foster US Solar Manufacturing
Tariffs target solar factories predominantly owned by Chinese companies in Southeast Asia, aiming to promote US-based solar manufacturing. However, despite the potential for increased profits in US manufacturing, challenges such as long construction timelines and high financing needs inhibit widespread industry growth.
Complex Economics and Market Uncertainties
The solar market's complexity and uncertainties surface amid rising module prices and negotiations influenced by potential tariff risks. The lack of clarity on future tariffs creates challenges in pricing negotiations, adding layers of complexity to straightforward transactions.
Global Solar Landscape and Chinese Market Dominance
The global solar market, predominantly comprising the US, India, and other nations, showcases China's significant role as a major solar component supplier. Despite the US market comprising only 15% of global demand, the focus on tariffs impacts Chinese companies' strategies to navigate supply chains and respond to changing trade dynamics.
The persistent oversupply of solar modules has pushed prices to record lows and threatened the competitiveness of manufacturing outside of Asia. Against this backdrop, a group of US companies has petitioned the Biden administration for further tariffs to be applied. While China has historically been the target of the US government, the latest levies are focused on Southeast Asian countries where Chinese manufacturers have set up shop: Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by co-host Tom Rowlands-Rees, and Pol Lezcano from our solar team. Together they discuss whether these tariffs could do more harm than good, given the push for net zero and the significantly cheaper modules that are already available. They also unpack the range and depth of the proposed duties, and how likely they are to support new and existing solar manufacturing in the US.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com