How much does college production matter for edge prospects?
Mar 26, 2025
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Justis Mosqueda, community producer at Acme Packing Company, shares his expertise on NFL draft prospects. He delves into the relationship between college production and NFL success for edge players, comparing standout athletes like Abdul Carter with less productive ones like Mykel Williams. The conversation tackles the intricacies of scouting metrics, defensive schemes, and the importance of a versatile skill set. Mosqueda also hints at future discussions regarding the upcoming quarterback class, adding an exciting layer to the draft narrative.
The effectiveness of edge prospects in the NFL may hinge more on athletic traits than their college production statistics, as seen with Shamar Stewart.
Current college football schemes, which lean towards RPOs and quick passes, often fail to prepare edge rushers for the NFL demands.
Historical examples like Trayvon Walker and Daniil Hunter highlight the need for teams to balance immediate productivity with long-term potential when drafting edge players.
Deep dives
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Shamar Stewart and the Draft Evaluation Debate
Shamar Stewart is positioned as a top 10 draft prospect despite having limited production at Texas A&M, where he recorded only two sacks in his last season. His athleticism is highlighted, with an impressive Relative Athletic Score (RAS), suggesting potential that teams find enticing despite his lack of college performance. The discussion raises questions about the weight of productivity versus athletic traits when evaluating edge rushers, prompting debates on how college performance translates to the NFL level. Comparisons to other successful NFL players who had similar issues in college emphasize the importance of assessing underlying talent and potential.
Trends in Evaluating Edge Rushers
The conversation explores past and present trends in evaluating college edge rushers, examining how production rates at the collegiate level might correlate with NFL success. Many successful NFL players have overcome poor college statistics due to their athletic capabilities, suggesting that teams may prioritize physical traits over college productivity. Additionally, the evolving nature of offensive schemes in college football complicates the evaluation process, making assessments of a player's ability to rush the passer more uncertain. This nuanced understanding highlights the challenges teams face when projecting scouting reports to professional levels.
The Impact of College Schemes on Player Development
Current college football schemes, which often prioritize RPOs and quick passes, may not adequately prepare edge rushers for the demands of the NFL. This trend raises concerns about the readiness of players who excelled in college due to scheme advantages rather than individual ability. As colleges emphasize run-first approaches, pass rushers have fewer opportunities to showcase their skills, potentially leading to discrepancies in their projected effectiveness at the next level. Adjusting coaching methods to align more closely with NFL requirements may be necessary to enhance player performance as they transition to professional football.
Case Studies of Drafting Decisions
The effects of drafting decisions are examined through the lenses of players like Trayvon Walker and Daniil Hunter, both of whom had low productivity in college but succeeded in the NFL. Walker's performance has led to mixed opinions about his efficacy as a first overall pick, while Hunter's success challenges traditional evaluation metrics. The analysis emphasizes that teams must weigh both the immediate production and long-term potential when selecting edge rushers. These case studies illustrate the importance of context, coaching, and the adaptability of players as key factors in drafting decisions.
We're likely to see six or seven edge players selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Some of them, like Abdul Carter, were wildly productive in college. Others, like Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart, weren't. That reality naturally leads to this question...how much does college production matter for edge prospects when it comes to their effectiveness at the NFL level? Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Justis Mosqueda from Acme Packing Company dive deep into that question on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.
