Is 2024 the Year US-China Tensions Finally Trip Up Apple
Jan 3, 2024
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Apple faces challenges in the Chinese market due to US-China tensions. Harvard's reputation and relationships are affected by the resignation of its president. The podcast also explores the influence of universities and the economics of healthcare spending. Lastly, predictions for the 2024 economy are discussed.
Apple's relationship with Beijing is becoming increasingly challenging going into 2024.
Investors should consider diversifying into undervalued small and mid-cap stocks in 2024.
Deep dives
The Strong Performance of the Economy in 2023
Despite predictions of a recession, the economy in 2023 exceeded expectations, outperforming forecasts and demonstrating strong growth. The consensus view for a recession was proven incorrect, as the economy performed better than anticipated. However, looking ahead to 2024, there is a possibility of slower growth or even stagnation. The current high valuations of the equity market, coupled with potentially aggressive earnings estimates, may lead to a pullback. Additionally, with the expectation of rate cuts from the Fed, there could be a progression of cuts throughout the year, impacting market dynamics.
Broader Market Participation and Small Cap Considerations
The market rally in the final months of 2023 saw broader participation, with small caps breaking out and showing strength. This broader participation is seen as healthy, but recent declines in small caps may signal concerns about the US economy in 2024. It is advisable for investors to consider diversifying into undervalued names and broadening their portfolios. Small and mid-cap sectors may be appealing due to the extreme valuation differentials relative to large caps. Additionally, small caps historically benefit from rate cuts more than any other part of the market.
Expectations of Rate Cuts and Market Pricing
Market pricing currently factors in rate cuts, but potential cuts may not have been fully priced in. The consensus view of 150 basis points of rate cuts may only occur if economic weakness creeps back into the market, leading to concerns about a recession. While the FOMC minutes caution against the possibility of overstating rate cut expectations, the potential for slower growth and profit growth below expectations could lead to a market correction. It is important to remain data-dependent and monitor economic performance closely.
Risks for 2024
The biggest risk for 2024 lies in economic growth falling short of expectations, resulting in lower profit growth and potential market corrections. Disappointing economic and profit performance could lead to a decrease in market multiples. While the positive sentiment surrounding the anticipated benefits of Fed easing may provide support, it is essential to consider the possibility of slower growth impacting market dynamics.
Bloomberg Businessweek Columnist Max Chafkin explains how Apple has navigated its relationship with Beijing well so far, but the situation isn’t getting any easier heading into the new year. Bloomberg News Higher-Education Finance Reporter Janet Lorin discusses why Harvard faces increasing pressure to resolve one of the most fractious chapters in its history after the ouster of President Claudine Gay. Amy Shellhart, Chief Solutions Officer at WellSky, shares her thoughts on health tech trends for 2024. And we Drive to the Close with Dave Donabedian, CIO at CIBC Private Wealth Management. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.