Elizabeth Edwards-Appell, a political analyst and commentator, discusses campaign dynamics, non-voters' preferences, implications of voting against one's party, political capital, the impact of flip-flopping power, regulations by non-experts, dark triad traits in politicians, and the change in personality when becoming a politician. She also explores the challenges, rewards, and strategic advantages of being a politician, transparency in product claims, and the perception and traits of politicians. Additionally, she shares personal experiences with changing beliefs, committee votes, game theory reasoning in voting, mischaracterization of bills, and second-order effects of affirmative action.
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Quick takeaways
Running for political office requires appealing to specific voters and conforming to party lines.
Challenging one's own beliefs through introspection and embracing open-mindedness is crucial for growth.
Regulation and policymaking involve balancing societal needs, expert guidance, and considering concentrated benefits and socialized costs.
Deep dives
Running for political office and the challenges faced
In this podcast episode, Elizabeth Edwards-Appelle discusses her experience running for political office and the challenges she faced. She explains her ideological motivations and the process of deciding to run as a Democrat. She also shares insights on campaigning, including door-to-door canvassing and targeting specific voters. Elizabeth highlights the impact of primary elections and the importance of appealing to primary voters. She also discusses the pressure to conform to party lines and the difficulties of going against the party's recommendations. It becomes clear that the political landscape is complex and that individuals must navigate various factors in making decisions and striving for positive change.
Epistemic shifts and the influence of cognitive biases
During her time in office, Elizabeth underwent a transformation in her beliefs and worldview. She describes the impact of reading the sequences, a series of blog posts on various topics including Bayesian thinking and cognitive biases. Elizabeth explains how this reading led her to challenge her own dogma and recognize the influence of cognitive biases in shaping her ideology. Through introspection and self-reflection, she reevaluated her beliefs and embraced a more probabilistic approach to thinking. This experience highlights the importance of open-mindedness, intellectual growth, and thoughtful examination of one's own beliefs.
Regulations, politics, and the complexities of decision-making
The discussion delves into the complexities of regulation and policymaking. Elizabeth acknowledges the challenges in creating effective regulations that balance the needs of society and various stakeholders. She recognizes the role of experts in providing guidance but also acknowledges the limitations of expertise and the potential biases that may arise. The conversation explores the allure of tribalism, the pressures of party conformity, and the difficulties of navigating political systems. Elizabeth emphasizes the need to consider both concentrated benefits and socialized costs when evaluating regulations. Overall, the conversation highlights the intricate nature of politics and decision-making in the pursuit of positive societal outcomes.
The different types of politicians
In the podcast, the speaker discusses five different types of politicians based on their motives and behaviors. These types include the corrupt politician who is solely focused on personal gain, the narcissist who seeks praise and attention, the politician who is just happy to hold office without any specific goals, the ideologue who strongly believes in a particular system or ideology, and the pragmatist who focuses on achieving specific goals through compromise. The speaker emphasizes that while these types exist, politicians can also display incompetence and make silly mistakes in their decision-making.
The concept of political capital
The speaker explains the concept of political capital, highlighting that it refers to the amount of support, influence, and goodwill a politician has with their colleagues, party leadership, and constituents. They describe how political capital can be gained through popularity, affinity, and demonstrating competence and preparedness. Political capital is seen as a resource that should be strategically managed by politicians to achieve their goals and maintain support from others. The speaker also notes that political capital can be easily depleted if politicians are seen as constantly outside the mainstream or if they make too many demands or enemies.
How do campaign and election dynamics affect the sorts of people that politicians court and the kinds of platforms they build? How well can we really know non-voters' preferences? What would your life be like if your most treasured belief turned out to be false? What are all the ramifications of voting against your own party? To what extent is "political capital" a real, legit thing? Do politicians actually manage to get anything useful done despite the constant flip-flopping of power? How can we expect non-experts to write robust regulations in fields that are extremely complicated? What percent of politicians exhibit higher-than-average levels of the Dark Triad traits? How does becoming a politician change one's personality? How accurate are Bradley Tusk's political personality types (the rare breed, the typical politician, the ideologue, the "I'm just happy to be here", and the corrupt politician)? How similar are state politics to federal politics?
Elizabeth Edwards-Appell is a former New Hampshire legislator who currently works as a political consultant. As a member of the effective altruism movement, her work focuses on policy change to reduce catastrophic risks. She lives near Manchester with her wife, their cat, and their brand new baby daughter.