Odd Lots

Just How Bad Is the Economy Getting in China?

Sep 5, 2022

In this engaging discussion, Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics and author of "China: The Bubble That Never Pops," unpacks the troubling state of China's economy. He highlights the severe impact of COVID Zero policies and the real estate crisis, with many homebuyers boycotting mortgage payments. Orlik also explores the dire effects of climate change, particularly extreme heat and drought, on energy and agriculture. With a fragile banking sector and global inflation pressures, the conversation reveals a complex and precarious economic landscape.

46:21

Creator website

Episode guests

Tom Orlik

Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

What is going on in China Right Now?

01:08

We're not Sylonists.

01:51

The Tension Between Solving The Problem And Recreating The Problem

01:21

Intro

2min

China's Real Estate Crisis Unveiled

19min

China's Banking Sector and Real Estate Challenges

7min

China's Economic Challenges Amid Global Inflation

11min

Climate Change and Economic Strain in China

3min

China's Economic Challenges Ahead of the National Congress

9min

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, China arguably led the world out of the downturn. Its gigantic fiscal stimulus not only boosted domestic growth, it also created an incredible amount of demand for commodities all around the world. Today the story is different. The government's Covid Zero policies have been a drag on growth and the real estate sector is deeply troubled, with a rise in homebuyers refusing to make mortgage payments. On top of that, the country is experiencing searing heat and drought. So how bad is it? Are things meaningfully worse than in previous downturns? To understand more, we speak with Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics and author of the book "China: The Bubble that Never Pops."

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