More or Less: Behind the Stats Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?
Sep 24, 2025
David Swales, Head of Economics and Analysis for Livestock at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, shares insights on the recent 25% increase in beef prices. He attributes this surge to declining UK and import supplies, unfavorable weather conditions, and changes in subsidies affecting cattle numbers. The discussion also investigates whether Sir Ed Davey's claim about deportations post-Brexit holds water and examines the misinterpretation of UK demographic data by the Bank of England's governor. Tune in for some thought-provoking numbers!
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Dublin Had Limited Return Power
- The Dublin system existed pre-Brexit but produced few actual returns, so its deterrent effect was limited.
- From 2016–2020 the UK received more Dublin transfers than it returned, showing low conversion rates on transfer requests.
Post-Brexit Appeal For Some Migrants
- Interviews suggest some migrants now prefer the UK because it is outside the Dublin fingerprint database.
- Migrants expect a second chance to claim asylum in the UK even if refused in the EU.
Ageing Numbers Were Misreported
- The 40%-over-65 figure by 2040 was a misreporting; ONS projects 22.6% of the population will be 65+ in 2040.
- The 40% figure only applies far in the future (2121) and carries high uncertainty.