111 | Nick Bostrom on Anthropic Selection and Living in a Simulation
Aug 24, 2020
01:20:39
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The Doomsday Argument suggests that our civilization is more likely to have a shorter lifespan of thousands of years rather than millions of years due to our relatively recent appearance in history.
Anthropics reasoning involves considering the nature of typical observers, including the possibility of simulated agents rather than biological ones.
The Simulation Argument proposes that it is likely we are living in a computer simulation, with possibilities including civilizations going extinct, loss of interest in creating simulations, or our reality being a highly probable simulation.
Deep dives
The Doomsday Argument and Anthropics Reasoning
The podcast explores the Doomsday Argument and anthropics reasoning. The Doomsday Argument suggests that due to the relatively recent appearance of our technological civilization, it is more likely that our civilization will not last for millions of years, but instead only for thousands of years. This argument is based on the idea that being born early in the history of our civilization implies a shorter lifespan for the civilization as a whole. The concept of anthropics reasoning involves thinking about what a typical observer is like and raises the question of whether typical observers could be simulated agents rather than biological ones.
The Self-Sampling and Self-Indication Assumptions
The podcast discusses the self-sampling assumption and the self-indication assumption, which are different approaches to reasoning about observation selection effects. The self-sampling assumption suggests thinking of oneself as a random sample from all possible observers, while the self-indication assumption posits thinking of oneself as a random sample from all actual observers. These assumptions have implications for evaluating hypotheses about the future of humanity and the nature of our reality. However, the podcast highlights that there is still uncertainty and ongoing debate about which assumption is correct and how to apply them.
The Simulation Argument
The podcast delves into the simulation argument, which proposes that it is likely we are living in a computer simulation. This argument posits three possibilities: civilizations often go extinct before reaching technological maturity, technologically advanced civilizations lose interest in creating simulations, or our reality is a highly probable computer simulation. The argument suggests that if the first two possibilities are unlikely, then we are most likely living in a simulation. The podcast acknowledges that simulating consciousness and creating realistic simulations raise challenges, but the substrate independence thesis, which posits that structure, not specific material, is essential for conscious phenomena, supports the possibility of simulating consciousness. The conclusion remains uncertain but subject to further exploration and examination.
Anthropics theory and reference classes
Anthropics theory suggests that different observers should use different reference classes based on their circumstances and characteristics. By relativizing the reference class, the theory aims to avoid counterintuitive implications and assumptions like the doomsday argument and the self-indication assumption. The speaker suggests that it may be a mistake to consider ourselves as typical observers and argues for judging cosmological scenarios based on the likelihood of observers exactly like us. This approach considers the probabilities of different observers seeing different outcomes in different cosmological scenarios.
Applying anthropic reasoning and fine-tuning
The concept of anthropic reasoning is applied to explain the fine-tuning of the universe and the existence of intelligent life. By recognizing the apparent fine-tuning of the universe and the wide distribution of parameter values in an ensemble of universes, anthropic reasoning suggests that we should expect to observe a fine-tuned universe capable of supporting life. This line of reasoning, based on the probability of observers like us existing, offers a possible explanation for the seemingly highly improbable conditions necessary for intelligent life. It concludes that the existence of intelligent civilizations elsewhere in the universe is not surprising given the vast number of planets and the potential rarity of the steps leading to intelligent life.
Human civilization is only a few thousand years old (depending on how we count). So if civilization will ultimately last for millions of years, it could be considered surprising that we’ve found ourselves so early in history. Should we therefore predict that human civilization will probably disappear within a few thousand years? This “Doomsday Argument” shares a family resemblance to ideas used by many professional cosmologists to judge whether a model of the universe is natural or not. Philosopher Nick Bostrom is the world’s expert on these kinds of anthropic arguments. We talk through them, leading to the biggest doozy of them all: the idea that our perceived reality might be a computer simulation being run by enormously more powerful beings.
Nick Bostrom received his Ph.D. in philosophy from the London School of Economics. He also has bachelor’s degrees in philosophy, mathematics, logic, and artificial intelligence from the University of Gothenburg, an M.A. in philosophy and physics from the University of Stockholm, and an M.Sc. in computational neuroscience from King’s College London. He is currently a Professor of Applied Ethics at the University of Oxford, Director of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology. He is the author of Anthropic Bias: Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.
