Nick Bostrom, a renowned philosopher from Oxford, discusses profound concepts related to existential risks and simulation theory. He explores the Doomsday Argument, questioning humanity's longevity in the cosmos. The dialogue delves into the implications of anthropic reasoning, pondering if we are simulated beings or genuine consciousness. Bostrom also addresses the future of work amidst advancing AI, highlighting the balance between technology and employment. A thought-provoking conversation on existence and our place in the universe unfolds.
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Doomsday Argument Overview
The doomsday argument applies probabilistic reasoning to humanity's lifespan.
It suggests a shorter lifespan than millions of years based on our early birth rank.
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Self-Sampling Assumption
The self-sampling assumption, crucial for doomsday argument, assumes we're a random sample from all humans.
Similar reasoning is used in cosmology to connect big-world theories to observations.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Red Room Analogy
Imagine 100 rooms, 90 blue and 10 red, each with an observer.
Your credence of being in a red room should equal the fraction of red rooms (10%).
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In this book, Nick Bostrom delves into the implications of creating superintelligence, which could surpass human intelligence in all domains. He discusses the potential dangers, such as the loss of human control over such powerful entities, and presents various strategies to ensure that superintelligences align with human values. The book examines the 'AI control problem' and the need to endow future machine intelligence with positive values to prevent existential risks[3][5][4].
Human civilization is only a few thousand years old (depending on how we count). So if civilization will ultimately last for millions of years, it could be considered surprising that we’ve found ourselves so early in history. Should we therefore predict that human civilization will probably disappear within a few thousand years? This “Doomsday Argument” shares a family resemblance to ideas used by many professional cosmologists to judge whether a model of the universe is natural or not. Philosopher Nick Bostrom is the world’s expert on these kinds of anthropic arguments. We talk through them, leading to the biggest doozy of them all: the idea that our perceived reality might be a computer simulation being run by enormously more powerful beings.
Nick Bostrom received his Ph.D. in philosophy from the London School of Economics. He also has bachelor’s degrees in philosophy, mathematics, logic, and artificial intelligence from the University of Gothenburg, an M.A. in philosophy and physics from the University of Stockholm, and an M.Sc. in computational neuroscience from King’s College London. He is currently a Professor of Applied Ethics at the University of Oxford, Director of the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute, and Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology. He is the author of Anthropic Bias: Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy and Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.
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