HousingWire Daily How inflation is impacting mortgage rates
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Aug 18, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a Lead Analyst known for insightful economic analysis, joins to discuss the current inflationary landscape and its impact on mortgage rates. He illustrates how rising inflation complicates home buying decisions and underscores the influence of 10-year yields. The conversation dives into labor market trends and their effects on bond pricing, shedding light on anticipated rate cuts. Listeners will also gain valuable insights on how the Federal Reserve’s actions shape current and future mortgage dynamics.
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Spreads Kept Mortgage Rates Lower
- Mortgage rates stayed near year-to-date lows despite hotter core inflation because spreads improved substantially.
- Improved spreads limited rate increases even when the 10-year Treasury yield spiked late in the day.
Fed's Higher Inflation Expectation Matters
- The Fed raised its inflation expectation to about 3%, which changes market dynamics versus last year.
- That higher expected inflation makes it harder for the 10-year yield to fall without weaker labor data.
Track Labor Data Not Just Fed Talk
- Follow labor data closely because it will drive bond yields and mortgage rates more than Fed statements.
- Watch for weakening jobs to be the main path toward lower mortgage rates, not just Fed promises of cuts.