What Next: TBD | Tech, power, and the future Betting on Venezuela
Jan 9, 2026
In this engaging discussion, Alex Kirshner, a contributing writer and expert on media and prediction markets, dives into the intriguing saga of betting on Venezuelan politics. He reveals how an anonymous trader made a staggering profit by anticipating Nicolás Maduro's ouster. The conversation explores the implications of prediction markets, including the blurred lines of insider trading, how these platforms shape political narratives, and the potential for corruption. Kirshner also advocates for necessary regulatory guardrails to address these challenges.
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Huge Gains From Geopolitical Bets
- Prediction markets let anonymous traders convert small stakes into huge profits by trading on geopolitical events.
- Alex Kirshner highlights a case where ~$30k in trades turned into an apparent $435k windfall on Maduro's ouster.
Regulation Lags Behind Market Growth
- Prediction markets nominally fall under CFTC oversight but face minimal enforcement.
- Kirshner notes regulators have largely stayed hands-off as these platforms rapidly expand.
Suspected Insider On Tech Release Markets
- Sleuths have tracked patterns suggesting insiders trade on product-release markets.
- Kirshner points to a suspected Alphabet-linked trader profiting from nonpublic Google information.