Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard

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Aug 4, 2025

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, brings a wealth of experience advising institutional investors. He discusses how structural forces are reshaping the economy, arguing recessions are now 'canceled' due to fiscal dominance. The conversation covers shifting demographics, geopolitical fragmentation, and how AI is altering job markets. Deluard also addresses the potential for an Asian-driven oil demand shock and offers insights on constructing a 'fiscal dominance' portfolio to navigate this new macro landscape.

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ANECDOTE

Vincent's Finance Journey

Vincent Deluard shares his start in finance: a curious economist turned investment researcher.
He enjoys advising pension funds and thinks the job is the most interesting worldwide.

INSIGHT

History Matters in Economics

Economic models often ignore history, causing mistakes in market predictions.
Thinking historically is crucial to avoid being misled by faulty economic frameworks.

INSIGHT

Exceptional Economic Era Warning

The past 40 years are an exceptional period of falling inflation, interest rates, and globalization.
Assuming this period as the norm threatens to misguide economic models and forecasts.

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In Episode 432 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, where he advises large institutional investors on asset allocation, economic forecasting, and quantitative modeling informed by historical patterns and structural economic analysis.

Vincent Deluard and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring Deluard’s macroeconomic framework and the key structural forces that he believes are shaping the emergence of a new macro regime of fiscal dominance, including shifting demographics, politically driven inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and the decline of institutional trust. The two discuss his provocative thesis that recessions have been "canceled," examining the structural and technological forces that Vincent believes are reducing economic cyclicality and reshaping the role of monetary and fiscal policy.

In the second hour, Vincent Deluard delves much deeper into his specific investment theses, including his call for an Asia "reverse currency crisis," his long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, and an Asian-driven oil demand shock that could rile markets and challenge the ability of monetary authorities to balance their mandates of maintaining price stability while also supporting economic growth and maximum employment. Vincent also shares his suggestions on how to construct a "fiscal dominance" portfolio, including which asset classes he believes will outperform under the new macroeconomic conditions that they discuss in their conversation and how investors can best manage risk and reward in this new paradigm.

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Episode Recorded on 07/29/2025