Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #109: Secrets of Modern Sports Betting
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Oct 17, 2023 Ed Miller, author of Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting, discusses how sports betting operates on information asymmetry, the structure of modern sports books, advantages of utilizing Roto Grinders projections, exploiting player correlations, gambling strategies, and the challenges of sports betting modeling.
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Sports Betting Market Dynamics
- Sports betting markets for main lines (spread, moneyline, total) are primarily driven by a few specialized sportsbooks.
- These "niche" sportsbooks allow sharp bettors to bet indefinitely, creating efficient market prices.
Models vs. Markets
- Most modern sportsbooks copy market prices for main lines but use models for derivative markets (player props, etc.).
- These models often have flaws and are vulnerable to exploitation by knowledgeable bettors.
Sportsbook as a House
- Jordan Cooper compares modern sportsbooks to building a house, requiring different subcontractors for different parts.
- Similarly, sportsbooks rely on various third-party content providers for different sports and bet types.