Ed Miller, author of Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting, discusses how sports betting operates on information asymmetry, the structure of modern sports books, advantages of utilizing Roto Grinders projections, exploiting player correlations, gambling strategies, and the challenges of sports betting modeling.
The sports betting industry relies on content creation companies to set prices and sportsbooks to take bets, highlighting the delicate balance that holds the market together.
DFS players have an advantage in sports betting, especially in player prop markets, due to their understanding of game theory and lineup construction.
Models primarily drive prop betting markets, with individuals often betting against models created by content creation companies, highlighting the distinction between models and markets.
The value of information in sports betting depends on its exclusivity and timing, with early access to information and low public knowledge increasing its value.
Deep dives
Understanding the Sports Betting Ecosystem
The podcast episode delves into the behind-the-scenes workings of the sports betting industry and highlights the relationship between sportsbooks and content creation companies. It emphasizes how the market is held together by duct tape, with content creation companies providing the pricing and sportsbooks taking the bets. The episode discusses the varying efficiency of incorporating betting information into pricing and how the quality of work by the originating company influences the value of the information. It also explores the concept of adverse selection in market-based versus model-based pricing.
Adapting DFS Knowledge to Sports Betting
The podcast explores the idea that DFS players who transition into sports betting, especially in player prop markets, may have an advantage due to their understanding of game theory and lineup construction. The speaker discusses their own experience entering the sports arena through DFS and highlights how the casual approach of many sports fans creates an advantage for those with a game theory mindset. The speaker also touches on the viability of attacking single game parlay models with a DFS mindset.
Understanding the Difference Between Models and Markets
The podcast episode accentuates the distinction between models and markets in sports betting. It highlights how models primarily drive prop betting markets, where individuals often bet against models created by content creation companies. The speaker explains how models translate data inputs into pricing and points out the varying efficiency of incorporating betting information into these models. The episode also discusses the nature of prop markets and how bettors can potentially exploit the information asymmetry in these markets.
The Value of Information and Timing
The podcast touches on the value of information in sports betting and how its value is directly related to who else has access to it. It emphasizes that publicly available information is only valuable if it is not widely known or if it is released earlier than others can act on it. The episode explains that when a large group of people act on the same information, it reduces its value. Additionally, it highlights how early access to information, such as a release from a reputable source, can provide an advantage to bettors.
The Value of Break-Even Bets
Being able to find an endless supply of break-even bets is considered the most valuable sports betting skill.
Understanding Market Behavior
Knowing how sports betting markets operate and the motivations of the people involved is crucial for successful betting.
Taking Advantage of Information Asymmetry
Understanding when and how betting information changes can provide opportunities to get on the right side of a line before it moves.
Exploiting Modeling Errors in Single Game Parlays
Picking apart single game parlays and finding modeling errors can offer opportunities for profitable betting strategies.
Jordan Cooper welcomes on Ed Miller to discuss his new book, why sports betting is a game of information asymmetry & adverse selection, how the ecosystem is held together by duct tape, the difference between markets & models, why online sports betting is still a "people business", and how one can potentially take advantage of the huge menus offered at modern sports books.