Examining China's shifting demographics and the relationship between wealth, youth, and state power. Exploring global migration patterns and fertility rates. Discussing the impact of increasing migration to major cities and the potential futures of the US as a global power. Exploring the projected aging populations of Brazil, Turkey, Iran, and Mexico by 2050 and the potential economic challenges they may face.
China's aging population poses challenges for its global power and prestige, as being young is as important as being rich.
The US is poised to become a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse due to its relatively young and growing population, while countries in the old world will face population decline and a loss of global influence.
Deep dives
The Aging of China and the Developed World
China's population is aging, with the median age projected to increase to nearly 50 by the mid-century. This poses challenges for China's global power and prestige, as being young is as important as being rich. Similar challenges are faced by the developed world, where aging populations and low birth rates require migration to compensate.
The Emergence of State Economies
A simple model using the axes of wealth and youth divides the world into four emerging types of state economies. The metropolitan, represented by the US, is rich and relatively young, making it a global economic power. The old world, represented by countries in Europe and East Asia, is rich but geriatric, facing population aging and slow growth. The quiet world consists of emerging market countries, which are growing older and facing economic stagnation due to low fertility. The young world, comprised of regions in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia and South America, has a young labor force and untapped potential.
The Future of Nations in the Metropole
The US is poised to become a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse due to its relatively young and growing population. The influx of immigrants will drive demographic growth and maintain a large workforce. Countries in the old world will experience population decline, stagnant GDP, and a loss of global influence. The quiet world will face population aging and economic challenges, while the young world holds great potential for economic growth, but also cultural and logistical integration challenges.