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ICIS - chemical podcasts

Episode 1244: Think Tank: Supply/demand mismatch dims prospects for chemicals recovery

Sep 17, 2024
Nigel Davis and John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, along with Paul Hodges, Chairman of New Normal Consulting, dive deep into the chemical industry's malaise. They discuss the oversupply from China and the Middle East, predicting a continued struggle in petrochemical markets. The trio examines China's shifting demand growth, projected at only 2-4% yearly, and the potential for global deflation. They emphasize the critical need for new business models and strategic shifts amidst declining sales and profitability.
23:01

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The chemical industry's struggle is primarily driven by an oversupply from China and weak global demand impacting sales and profits.
  • Future recovery prospects depend on balancing capacity expansions and potential closures in underperforming regions amidst low chemical consumption growth.

Deep dives

The Impact of Downstream Demand on the Chemical Industry

The chemical industry has faced significant challenges due to a chronic mismatch between oversupply, primarily from China, and weak global demand. This has led to substantial declines in sales and profits across many major companies, with highlighted examples like BASF and Dow struggling to achieve top-line growth amidst this downturn. The analysis suggests that while some companies managed to partly mitigate losses by focusing on cash preservation, the overall operating conditions have shown little sign of improvement, leaving many sectors still mired in a tough economic landscape. Additionally, the lack of positive growth in chemical consumption raises concerns about the industry's ability to recover in the near future.

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