Nigel Davis and John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, along with Paul Hodges, Chairman of New Normal Consulting, dive deep into the chemical industry's malaise. They discuss the oversupply from China and the Middle East, predicting a continued struggle in petrochemical markets. The trio examines China's shifting demand growth, projected at only 2-4% yearly, and the potential for global deflation. They emphasize the critical need for new business models and strategic shifts amidst declining sales and profitability.
The chemical industry's struggle is primarily driven by an oversupply from China and weak global demand impacting sales and profits.
Future recovery prospects depend on balancing capacity expansions and potential closures in underperforming regions amidst low chemical consumption growth.
Deep dives
The Impact of Downstream Demand on the Chemical Industry
The chemical industry has faced significant challenges due to a chronic mismatch between oversupply, primarily from China, and weak global demand. This has led to substantial declines in sales and profits across many major companies, with highlighted examples like BASF and Dow struggling to achieve top-line growth amidst this downturn. The analysis suggests that while some companies managed to partly mitigate losses by focusing on cash preservation, the overall operating conditions have shown little sign of improvement, leaving many sectors still mired in a tough economic landscape. Additionally, the lack of positive growth in chemical consumption raises concerns about the industry's ability to recover in the near future.
Expectations for Capacity Growth and Market Recovery
Current data indicates that global operating rates for key chemicals are predicted to average around 78%, with a significant need for capacity growth to even approach previous averages of 88%. The overcapacity dilemma is exacerbated by China’s slower-than-expected demand, which has thrown off previous assumptions used to predict market rebound. To return to healthier operating rates, the industry will likely have to see closures in underperforming regions, balancing new capacity expansions in places like North America and the Middle East. The fragmentation of the petrochemical landscape highlights the difficulties in achieving sustainable recovery without addressing the excess supply deeply embedded in the market.
Challenges in the Oil Market and Broader Economic Implications
The oil market is undergoing significant shifts, with reduced control by OPEC plus amidst rising capacity and the transition towards electrification, particularly in China. The expectation is that as demand wanes, oil prices will experience downward pressure, impacting the chemical industry that relies on oil derivatives. The global economy faces risks of deflation driven by overproduction, particularly in China, which heightens concerns about substantially indebted economies worldwide. This evolving landscape suggests a challenging recovery path for both oil and chemicals, necessitating a reevaluation of business strategies across the sector.
Petrochemical markets are likely to remain depressed while China and other countries continue to add significant capacity, unless big wave of closures and demand improvement help to achieve balance.
- Global capacity additions far outstrip demand growth
- China, Middle East, US likely to continue expansions
- China drove the petrochemical supercycle, but no longer
- China chemicals demand growth likely only 2-4%/year
- Prospect of global deflation
- Europe can focus on specialty chemicals, other niches
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