Economic Trends: Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Global Deflation

Petrochemical markets are likely to remain depressed while China and other countries continue to add significant capacity, unless big wave of closures and demand improvement help to achieve balance.  

-          Global capacity additions far outstrip demand growth

-          China, Middle East, US likely to continue expansions

-          China drove the petrochemical supercycle, but no longer

-          China chemicals demand growth likely only 2-4%/year 

-          Prospect of global deflation

-          Europe can focus on specialty chemicals, other niches