The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

TIVP028: Estée Lauder (EL): Michael Burry’s Big Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Jul 13, 2025
Dive into Estée Lauder's rollercoaster journey, from pandemic darling to facing dire market challenges. The discussion highlights the impact of China's shifting beauty landscape, including the daigou crackdown. With a new CEO at the helm, can the brand reignite growth through innovative strategies? Explore the internal dynamics within the Lauder family and the struggle to adapt in a competitive market fueled by social media and evolving consumer preferences. Is a comeback possible, or will it remain a cautionary tale?
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ANECDOTE

Estée Lauder’s Marketing Genius

  • Estée Lauder, founded by Josephine Esther Lauder, pioneered beauty marketing by giving away free samples and emphasizing word of mouth.
  • Her motto, "telephone, telegraph, telewoman," highlighted relationships and personal connections in selling beauty products.
INSIGHT

Estée Lauder’s China Reliance Risk

  • Estée Lauder's heavy reliance on Chinese daigou resellers artificially boosted growth, exposing it to major risk when China cracked down in 2023.
  • This reliance masked the true revenue diversification and led to a sharp decline when travel and reselling collapsed.
INSIGHT

Social Media Spurs Brand Switching

  • Social media and e-commerce have accelerated brand-switching among beauty consumers, making product loyalty more fragile.
  • Consumers try new brands frequently, driven by easy access and exposure to many choices online, challenging premium brand dominance.
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