TIVP028: Estée Lauder (EL): Michael Burry’s Big Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Intro
This chapter explores Estee Lauder's 80% loss in market value since 2021, primarily attributed to challenges in the Chinese market and economic disruptions. Despite these setbacks, the brand is implementing strategic initiatives that suggest a potential turnaround.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley take a closer look at Estée Lauder’s turbulent turnaround, tracing the beauty giant’s fall from pandemic favorite to contrarian play. After years of strong growth, the company was hit by an inventory pileup, the collapse of China’s daigou shopping channel, and a broader slowdown in its most important market. In this episode, they explore whether the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy and the arrival of new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie can reignite growth through cost savings, better channel mix, and stronger appeal to younger consumers.
Daniel and Shawn debate how realistic a turnaround is, whether the risk/reward resembles Nike’s recent playbook, and what needs to go right for Estée Lauder to reclaim its former strength. They also touch on wider beauty industry trends, the role of R&D as a competitive moat, internal tensions within the Lauder family, and the growing strategic weight of China for global fashion and cosmetics brands.
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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
05:29 - How Estée Lauder built the beauty giant
13:42 - Why Estée Lauder’s business and stock fell so dramatically
27:22 - How Social Media and personal brands changed the beauty industry
14:03 - Why China played a major part in the company’s rise and fall
42:23 - How the family drama caused a management crisis
46:26 - How Estée Lauder plans to rise to the industry’s top again
55:08 - Whether Estée Lauder is attractively valued at its current levels
1:00:08 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add EL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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- Book on Estée Lauder: The Company I Keep – My Life in Beauty.
- Estée Lauder’s Investor Relations.
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