China is More Likely to Blockade Taiwan Than Invade the Island in the Next Ten Years: A Debate with Mr. Lonnie Henley and Dr. Phil Saunders
Jan 2, 2024
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Experts debate whether China is more likely to blockade or invade Taiwan in the next ten years. They discuss reasons for a blockade, including military capabilities and potential scenarios. They analyze China's strategies and the challenges involved, as well as the potential consequences and economic costs of a blockade. The podcast concludes with a poll on whether views have changed after the debate.
China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade the island in the next ten years, considering the potential costs and benefits of each option.
The concept of a blockade involves targeting Taiwan's ports, airfields, and communication hubs, with challenges in penetrating the blockade and the strategy of closing in on the Taiwan Strait.
China's lack of combat experience is not seen as a sufficient deterrent, as the decision to use military force against Taiwan would be a deliberate one, emphasizing the importance of political will and potential horizontal escalation.
Deep dives
The likelihood of a blockade or invasion
The podcast discusses the likelihood of China blockading Taiwan or invading the island in the next 10 years. The debate focuses on the proposition that China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade. The experts argue their positions, considering the Chinese leadership's decision-making, military capabilities, and the potential costs and benefits of each option.
The dynamics of a blockade
The concept of a blockade is explored, emphasizing the various scenarios and actions involved. The experts highlight the violent nature of a kinetic blockade, with China targeting Taiwan's ports, airfields, and communication hubs. The challenges of penetrating the blockade and the strategy of closing in on the Taiwan Strait are discussed. The potential for horizontal escalation and the impact on other regions is also considered.
Decision-making and the will to win
The debate delves into the decision calculus and will to win on the part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The experts stress that China would not be forced into a conflict, as the decision to use military force against Taiwan would be a deliberate one. While China's lack of combat experience is acknowledged, it is not seen as a sufficient deterrent. The importance of political will and the potential for horizontal escalation are also addressed.
US participation and cooperation
The potential role of US allies and partners, such as South Korea and Japan, is discussed. The experts agree that South Korea is unlikely to participate in combat operations, but could provide political, diplomatic, and logistical support. The broader effects on international shipping and commerce are considered, along with the potential for cooperation among regional actors. The implications of US intervention and the extent of the war are also examined.
Economic and geopolitical considerations
The economic impact of a war over Taiwan, both for China and the US, is debated. The experts discuss the challenges faced by China in mobilizing for a war economy, while highlighting the potential growth and technological advancements that can come from such mobilization. The potential for NATO involvement and the geopolitical implications, including horizontal escalation, are also examined.
On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.
For this debate, the proposition is “China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade the island in the next ten years” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Lonnie Henley, who is a senior fellow for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Phil Saunders, who is the director of the Center for the Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University.