Pekingology China's Demographic Dilemma
Nov 25, 2025
Philip O’Keefe, a demographer and professor at UNSW, dives into China's demographic challenges. He discusses the implications of a rapidly aging population and the impact of low fertility rates on the economy and innovation. O’Keefe highlights regional variations in birth rates and how changing family structures affect elder support. He examines the potential of technology in elder care and the limitations of current pro-natalist policies. O’Keefe also connects these demographic shifts to China's global economic role and future growth prospects.
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Rapid Aging And Low Fertility Trajectory
- China's population is aging fast: 65+ share is ~15% now and likely ~30% by 2050.
- Fertility is ~1 child per woman and population shrinkage accelerates in the second half of the century.
Minimal Immigration Limits Options
- China has almost no immigration: foreign-born share was 0.1% in 2020.
- That contrasts sharply with other countries and limits an easy demographic fix.
Regional Variation In Demographic Pace
- Demographic trends move in the same direction across provinces but timing varies.
- Northeastern provinces are far more advanced in decline than many southern and minority provinces.