Takako Hikotani, a representative from the Asia Society Policy Institute, delves into Japan’s evolving defense strategies amid rising geopolitical tensions. She discusses how the war in Ukraine has shifted public attitudes towards security and the increased military threats from China. The podcast highlights Japan's complex balancing act between defense and diplomacy, its enhanced military collaboration with the U.S., and ambitions for deeper Pacific security partnerships. Hikotani also addresses Japan's unique challenges as the sole Asian G7 member in the global defense arena.
Japanese attitudes towards security have shifted significantly due to perceived threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, especially after recent military incursions.
There is a growing recognition in Japan for a balanced approach to security that maintains economic ties with China while enhancing military preparedness.
Deep dives
Japan's Growing Security Concerns
Japan is increasingly concerned about threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea, particularly evident after a Chinese military plane briefly entered Japanese airspace. This incident triggered an immediate scramble of Air-Defense Force fighters and led to strong condemnation from the Japanese government, reflecting heightened anxiety regarding Chinese military intentions. In response to such threats, Japan has ramped up its defense spending, while also recognizing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its security landscape. Many Japanese citizens perceive a growing possibility that what is happening in Ukraine could have parallel implications for East Asia, highlighting a fraught perception of regional stability.
The Complexity of Sino-Japanese Relations
While Japan's security establishment views China as its primary concern, the relationship is multifaceted, encompassing economic ties and historical context. China is Japan's largest trading partner, facilitating substantial person-to-person interactions, including a notable influx of Chinese tourists and students in Japan. Despite security concerns, the prevailing sentiment is that a nuanced approach—balancing security and economic interests—is essential for Japan. This complex relationship highlights a divergence in perspectives, as business sectors often advocate for cooperation while security analysts emphasize the potential threats from a militarily assertive China.
Japan's Strategic Alignment and Future Defense Policy
Japan is tightening its security alliance with the U.S. in light of escalating regional tensions, garnering stronger public support for military preparedness. The term 'latticework' describes the intricate network of alliances Japan is developing with multiple partners beyond the U.S., indicating a nuanced approach to security that includes increasing defense spending and participating in joint exercises. There is an underlying debate about Japan's long-term security plans, particularly regarding the reliability of the U.S. as an ally under varying political climates, including the potential return of figures like Donald Trump. With discussions around military self-reliance and nuclear capabilities resurfacing, Japan's defense policy is at a pivotal juncture, reflecting growing concerns over how to navigate regional security amid global uncertainties.
Gideon talks to Takako Hikotani of the Asia Society Policy Institute about how Japanese attitudes towards security have changed in light of the war in Ukraine and China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea. Clips: CNA