Sculptor Sees Opportunity in Busted Capital Structures
Sep 5, 2024
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Jimmy Levin, chief investment officer at Sculptor Capital Management, joins Bloomberg contributors James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez, along with credit analyst Stephane Kovatchev. They discuss striking opportunities in funding companies with unsustainable debt loads, viewing it as the best chance in corporate credit recently. Levin highlights expected growth in asset-based finance and potential double-digit returns. The panel also evaluates the resilience of U.S. consumers and the outlook for debt in cyclical industries amid fluctuating interest rates.
Sculptor Capital Management sees a promising opportunity in investing in companies burdened with unsustainable debt loads, which could yield significant returns.
The outlook for asset-based finance is optimistic, with expectations of double-digit returns amid a complex credit market influenced by various economic factors.
Deep dives
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Current Landscape of Credit Markets
The credit markets have shown signs of rallying after a downturn, with investors preparing for potential volatility as the Federal Reserve plans to ease interest rates. This environment has created a favorable climate for increasing debt issuance, as companies take advantage of strong demand for corporate bonds amidst historically high yields. However, the credit landscape is complicated by factors such as defaults, geopolitical tensions, and pressures from commercial real estate. The resulting conditions of resilience in the economy indicate a complex interplay of optimism and caution among investors regarding the credit space.
Opportunities in Credit Investing
Investors are witnessing a moment characterized as a 'golden age' for credit investing, where returns from investment-grade credit spreads and complexity premiums yield attractive opportunities. The combination of low to mid-teens gross returns makes this period appealing compared to past years, where returns hovered much lower. As rates normalize and inflation finds control, investors are looking towards structuring deals that facilitate these returns with acceptable credit risks. This shift in sentiment encourages a focus on identifying unique market opportunities across various credit categories, including corporate and asset-based finance.
Navigating Recession Risks and Market Dynamics
Even though the probability of a US recession is currently estimated at around 30%, there remains optimism surrounding the potential for a soft landing economically. Current trends suggest manageable inflation rates and a stabilization in market performance, which could help avoid recession while sustaining credit market strength. However, investors must remain vigilant, as unexpected shocks could derail this stability, particularly if inflation were to spike again. Long-term strategies in credit investments must therefore balance the potential risks with the opportunity to capture returns in an evolving market landscape.
Funding companies with unsustainable debt loads has been “the best opportunity in the corporate credit market over the last year or two,” Jimmy Levin, Sculptor Capital Management’s chief investment officer, says in Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Edge podcast. Separately, Sculptor expects substantial growth in asset-based finance, where Levin sees double-digit returns, he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Irene Garcia Perez, and BI credit analyst Stephane Kovatchev. Also in this episode, Levin and Kovatchev discuss the outlook for rates, the resilience of US consumers and positioning in the debt of cyclical industrial companies.